Pro-Israel groups are ramping up efforts to target incumbent progressives who have criticized both Israel’s military action in Gaza and continued U.S. support for Israel, even as the first member of the so-called “Squad” survived a primary challenge this week.
Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA) defeated moderate rival Bhavani Patel this week. Lee had been one of the earliest and most vocal critics of Israel’s military response to the Oct. 7 attacks and represents a district with a significant Jewish population.`
Lee’s challenger focused on her views on Israel throughout the campaign, but the congresswoman was not a target of influential groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee or the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC. Both groups opted to stay out of the primary.
“The hardest thing to do in politics is to defeat an incumbent member of the House. We didn’t think Summer Lee was a particularly compelling target, and we were not active in that race for that reason,” Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and president and CEO of DMFI, said in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
While Lee did not face an avalanche of pro-Israel money in her race, a political action committee backed by Republican megadonor Jeffrey Yass intervened, airing ads claiming the congresswoman “opposed Biden.” Some progressives are celebrating her victory, citing her primary as a test heading into the rest of the election season.
“My sister-in-service [Lee’s] resounding victory tonight sends a clear message to AIPAC and far-right billionaires like Jeff Yass that our seats cannot be bought,” Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) said in a post on X. “From PA-12 to MO-01, our constituents see through the charade, and they’re ready to do what it takes to win.”
Bush herself has now become a top target after sparking ire among pro-Israel groups for her calls for a ceasefire and her comments accusing Congress and the Biden administration of fueling the deaths in Gaza. The power and influence of AIPAC, DMFI, and other groups will be put to the test in the months to come. Donors close to these groups cite Bush and Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) as their top targets.
Bowman was outraised by George Latimer, a Westchester County politician, who raised nearly $1 million more than Bowman during the first quarter of 2024. More than $950,000 was raised through earmarked donations to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Bush’s primary opponent, St. Louis county prosecutor Wesley Bell, raised about $100,000 more than Bush. It’s unclear how much funding may have come from pro-Israel groups. However, Bell raised $650,000 in earmarked contributions through Democracy Engine Inc. PAC, a platform that allows some organizations to obscure their donations.
Beyond Bowman and Bush, the only other Squad member who faces some potential headwinds is Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) who faces a rematch against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. Samuels only lost to Omar by 2 points in the primary in 2022. So far, Omar is significantly outraising Samuels and pro-Israel groups have not participated in this race yet. Back in 2022, AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy project sent funding to another super PAC that ultimately spent about $625,000 on Samuels’s behalf.
Pro-Israel groups gained some significant wins last cycle when they ousted Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) and blocked Donna Edwards (D-MD) and Nina Turner (D-OH) from advancing to the general election,
“It’s not just the incumbents that matter to us, it’s a whole panoply of races. It would be great if we knock out one of the incumbents,” Mellman said. “It’s also very important to us to keep new anti-Israel members from joining the Congress, defeating incumbents or winning open seats.”
“These groups are sophisticated — and they are thinking very carefully about how they are spending their money,” said a Democratic consultant with ties to AIPAC who asked not to be named. “I think you’re going to see them engaging in races where the incumbents are already weakened through scandals completely unrelated to Israel.”
Bowman has drawn scrutiny, specifically after he pulled the fire alarm in a Capitol office building ahead of a vote to avoid a government shutdown. He ultimately was censured by the House. Earlier this year, an old blog post from Bowman was recovered that showed he once circulated conspiracy theories about Sept. 11, 2001.
Bush has also faced some controversy of her own after the Department of Justice launched an investigation into her campaign’s spending on security services.
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“You have to weigh what your return on investment is going to be,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist. “I’m fairly confident that some of these egregious Squad members will lose to successful Democrats who actually represent the values of their communities.”
A coalition of nearly two dozen progressive groups recently launched an effort to defend progressive Democrats who have been outspoken about Israel. The group includes Justice Democrats, the Sunrise Movement, and the IfNotNow Movement.
