November 2, 2024
Donald Trump seeks to end it in New Hampshire and formally become the Republican Party's presumptive presidential nominee.

Former President Donald Trump seeks to end it on Tuesday and formally become the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee for the third straight election as New Hampshire primary voters decide between Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Haley, the last remaining challenger to Trump in the GOP primary, is showing sheer desperation in her flailing presidential bid as she tries to project a pathway beyond New Hampshire into her home state of South Carolina and further out on Super Tuesday. Polls ahead of New Hampshire’s primary show Trump far eclipsing majority support in the Granite State and Haley trailing well into double digits.

As in Iowa, on January 15, the big question for both remaining GOP candidates is: What is the final margin? A Trump victory is essentially not in doubt — a Haley win would be an absolute shocker if she did pull it off — so the variable here is what the final margin looks like and how early the race is called. If New Hampshire is a repeat of Iowa — as the polls suggest it will be — then Haley is basically dead in the water and seems to have no path forward to the nomination and may drop out of the race as soon as this evening. But if she finishes with a shocker victory or a very close second place behind Trump in the low single digits in terms of a margin, she will likely continue her campaign into the South Carolina primary in February and then perhaps on to later states like Super Tuesday and the few before it.

Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Derry, New Hampshire, on January 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Haley is not even competing in the Nevada caucuses, but she is a candidate in the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses, which both happen on the same day, February 8 — weeks before the South Carolina primary. So the next major contest beyond New Hampshire is the first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina, where Haley faces perhaps even longer odds if she stays in the race after Tuesday, as Trump has the support of both U.S. senators and the sitting governor of South Carolina, among many others. Polls show Trump’s lead is even more significant in South Carolina than in New Hampshire or Iowa, so Haley’s pathway to continuing her campaign after New Hampshire is essentially non-existent. But, the question of whether she recognizes and accepts reality remains to be seen and will be largely determined by the margin in Tuesday’s primary in the northeast.

On the Democrat side, incumbent President Joe Biden does not even appear on New Hampshire’s ballot, but his supporters have launched a write-in campaign to avoid embarrassment at the hands of his two primary challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson. Technically, no delegates to the Democrat National Convention are at stake in the Granite State as a result of a spat between the Democrat National Committee and the New Hampshire Democrat Party over the date of the primary — that spat is why Biden is not on the ballot — but if the sitting president cannot easily hold off these challenges, that could spell trouble for him in later contests.

President Joe Biden pauses while speaking as he meets with Angola's President Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco in the Oval office of the White House, Thursday, November 30, 2023, in Washington. (Andrew Harnik/AP)

President Joe Biden (Andrew Harnik/AP)

In other words, Trump has a path to wrapping up the GOP nomination for president in New Hampshire on Tuesday evening, while Biden may very well see the beginning of a protracted battle for the Democrat nomination just beginning in the same state on the same night. Both fights could be determined by how Democrat-leaning independents break: Do they vote for Haley in the GOP primary, or do they help Biden lock down his party’s nomination by writing in the sitting president in the Democrat primary? They cannot vote in both.

The polls close in most of New Hampshire at 7:00 p.m. ET and in the rest of New Hampshire at 8:00 p.m. ET. Results are expected to begin trickling in shortly after 7:00 p.m. ET on the GOP side, and on the Democrat side, things are expected to take much, much longer — possibly dragging out until Wednesday morning — as counting mass numbers of write-in votes for a candidate not even appearing on the ballot is very labor-intensive and time-consuming. Follow along here on Breitbart News for live updates on the election results, as well as breaking news and analysis from the New Hampshire primary.

UPDATE 9:52 p.m. ET:

Here’s video of Trump accusing Haley of being there in a “fancy dress” spewing “bullshit” when she acted like she won the election tonight but lost–a factually accurate statement from Trump:

This will probably go down as an all-time great moment in television history.

UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET:

Trump is continuing to rip the totally out-of-touch-with-reality Haley, saying on live television her acting like she won is “bullshit.”

“I find in life you can’t let people get away with bullshit,” Trump said on live television about Haley’s nonsensical speech.

UPDATE 9:38 p.m. ET:

Trump noted that the weaponized Justice Department would target Haley just as aggressively as they have gone after him.

“A little note to Nikki–she’s not going to win but if she did she would be under investigation in 15 minutes,” Trump said.

Then Trump turns the microphone over to Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) who says the “race is over” and Haley will lose his home state of South Carolina.

Trump comes back to the mic and says Haley left out Nevada, which is a little over a week away on Feb. 8, and announces “we are pleased to announce we just won Nevada.” That’s because Haley is not even competing in the Silver State–at all. She already conceded it to Trump.

UPDATE 9:33 p.m. ET:

Trump retakes the microphone after letting Tom Homan, an immigration enforcement official from his administration, speak.

“This is an evening I will not forget because it’s the third time, but I think it’s the most important time,” Trump says after he essentially wraps up the GOP nomination for president over the nonsensical Haley.

UPDATE 9:30 p.m. ET:

Trump handed the microphone at his victory party to Vivek Ramaswamy, who endorsed him, so Ramaswamy could bash Haley and call on her to drop out immediately.

“The general election begins tonight,” Ramaswamy said.

Trump has retaken the stage and is thanking everyone. “I think we called it right–immigration is a big deal,” Trump said, citing exit polls showing it’s the number one issue in New Hampshire.

UPDATE 9:27 p.m. ET:

Trump is mocking Haley for “doing a speech like she won,” just like she did after Iowa when she came in a distant third place.

He noted that she did not win, but gave a speech as though she was giving a “victory speech.”

Trump is talking about the margin swinging much harder his way.

“She only got 25 percent of the Republican votes,” Trump also said, bashing Haley for depending on Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents to pad her numbers–noting that despite her third place finish in Iowa and her devastating loss tonight in New Hampshire she is “hanging on” nonsensically.

“Who the hell was the impostor who went up on the stage before and like claimed a victory when she lost?” Trump said of Haley.

UPDATE 9:23 p.m. ET:

Trump is speaking now.

UPDATE 9:18 p.m. ET:

Trump also on Truth Social slammed Haley as “delusional,” which is factually accurate given the fact she refuses to recognize the reality playing out down here on Planet Earth:

UPDATE 9:08 p.m. ET:

According to CNN, Trump has a double digit lead as of now. CNN’s John King is projecting that Trump will finish with a double digit finish over Haley. Yet Haley is continuing her doomed bid.

UPDATE 9:03 p.m. ET:

Trump mocked Haley by noting she has now already lost Nevada, which is upcoming next on Feb. 8, because Haley is not even competing in the Nevada caucuses:

UPDATE 9:01 p.m. ET:

The vast overwhelming majority–70 percent according to CNN’s exit polling–of voters for the space cadet Haley’s campaign in New Hampshire are not even registered Republicans:

Again, she seems to be having trouble understanding the reality down here on Planet Earth.

UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:

More calls are streaming in calling for the illogical Haley to end her nonsensical and failed campaign for president. Americans for Limited Government president Rick Manning just joined the calls, saying it’s time for Haley to recognize the reality that exists on Planet Earth and end her doomed bid for the GOP nomination for president and rally behind Trump.

“Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee for President of the United States, and Americans for Limited Government proudly supports him,” Manning said. “It is time for former Governor Nikki Haley to end her campaign in order that the focus can turn to defeating Joe Biden and his attempt to finish the fundamental transformation of America promised by Barack Obama.”

UPDATE 8:45 p.m. ET:

Even though Nikki Haley refuses to recognize the reality that exists now on Planet Earth, the Biden campaign does in fact recognize it. Biden’s campaign manager issued a statement after the New Hampshire primary that makes clear that the incumbent president views the former president as his general election opponent in November:

UPDATE 8:40 p.m. ET:

It’s worth noting Trump’s landslide victories in Iowa and New Hampshire set yet another new record for Republicans:

UPDATE 8:38 p.m. ET:

After Haley’s nonsensical speech where she tried to frame this devastating loss as a ticket out of New Hampshire, CNN’s panelists are turning hard against Haley. Everyone from Scott Jennings to David Axelrod to Van Jones are questioning whether she even has a pathway forward from here.

UPDATE 8:27 p.m. ET:

Here is yet another Democrat who voted for Haley in New Hampshire:

UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:

Haley voters are on camera admitting they will never support her in a general election and that they voted for her in New Hampshire purely to attack Trump:

UPDATE 8:24 p.m. ET:

Haley says the “political class” is “falling all over themselves” to “declare this race over.”

“This race is far from over–there are dozens of states left to go,” Haley says, defiantly ignoring the reality that she has no pathway to victory in any of them including her home state of South Carolina.

“We’re the last one standing next to Donald Trump,” Haley says…. “We still have a ways to go but we keep moving up.”

UPDATE 8:21 p.m. ET:

Haley is speaking now, and just like her nonsensical speech after coming in third in Iowa she is acting like she won–even though she lost in a landslide to Trump yet again.

UPDATE 8:20 p.m. ET:

House Speaker Mike Johnson joined the other Republicans in calling for Haley to end her failed campaign.

“Congratulations to President Trump on his decisive victory tonight in America’s first-in-the-nation primary!” Johnson said. “Our House Republican leaders and a majority of Republican Senators support his reelection, and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have strongly backed him at the polls. It’s now past time for the Republican Party to unite around President Trump so we can focus on ending the disastrous Biden presidency and growing our majority in Congress.”

UPDATE 8:19 p.m. ET:

It looks like Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents are inflating Haley’s numbers:

But she still lost in a blowout. And finally, finally, finally CNN has projected Trump the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary over Haley.

UPDATE 8:14 p.m. ET:

Things are getting worse for Haley in this terrible night for the former South Carolina Governor. Now, the CEO of MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump Super PAC, is calling on her to end her failed campaign for president.

“Nikki Haley said she’s running to stop the re-election of Harris-Biden,” Taylor Budowich said in a statement. “Yet, without a viable path to victory, every day she stays in this race is another day she delivers to the Harris-Biden campaign. It’s time for unity, it’s time to take the fight to the Democrats, and for Nikki Haley: it’s time to drop out.”

What’s more, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also joined many of his GOP U.S. Senate colleagues in formally endorsing Trump and calling on Haley to end her failed campaign:

The fact that Trump was formally declared the winner by the AP the second the polls closed in New Hampshire is worse of a rout for Haley than in Iowa, which saw the call come slightly more than a half an hour into the caucuses being open.

UPDATE 8:05 p.m. ET:

Pressure is mounting incredibly on Haley now to drop out of the race. She will have a very difficult time continuing her campaign beyond Tuesday evening. All eyes are on Haley headquarters now for her to concede the race, and drop out and endorse Trump as others like Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis did in the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses.

UPDATE 8:03 p.m. ET:

While CNN is foolishly not calling the race yet, the Associated Press has projected Donald Trump has defeated Nikki Haley for the GOP primary in New Hampshire. Trump has yet another huge win, and Haley’s pathway forward no longer exists.

The fact that the AP called it right when the final polls closed is disastrous for Haley.

UPDATE 8:01 p.m. ET:

CNN is holding off on making a call on the GOP primary at this time, but did call the Democrat primary for Biden in a write-in campaign.

UPDATE 8:00 p.m. ET:

The polls have now closed in all of New Hampshire. Expect networks to begin calling the race very soon. They will project Trump defeated Haley in the New Hampshire primary. The question now becomes what the margins look like in the end.

UPDATE 7:52 p.m. ET:

With 17 percent reporting now according to the New York Times, Trump’s lead is a few tenths of a percent away from double digits. Trump is at 54.4 percent and Haley is down at 44.7 percent. This is moving far away from Haley and quickly. As the final polls close in minutes, expect quick network calls for Trump.

UPDATE 7:47 p.m. ET:

CNN’s panelists are doing their best to try to help Haley’s campaign cope with what is shaping up to be a disastrous loss, and clearly trying to keep her campaign alive beyond Tuesday night. Several of them are pushing Haley as hard as they can, but with polls closing in the rest of New Hampshire in less than 15 minutes and formal network calls moments away for Trump, this could get bad for Haley quickly.

UPDATE 7:45 p.m. ET:

With 16 percent reporting now, Trump’s lead keeps growing. He’s at 53.5 percent now, while Haley is down to 45.7 percent.

UPDATE 7:39 p.m. ET:

With 13 percent now reporting according to the New York Times, Trump has expanded his lead and is at 53.3 percent while Haley has dropped down to 46 percent. Things are looking worse and worse for Haley now.

UPDATE 7:34 p.m. ET:

For what it’s worth, Wasserman also called the Democrat primary for Biden:

Technically, the final results on that one might not come until tomorrow because as laid out above Biden needed to run a write-in campaign and it takes far longer to count those votes than it does for candidates on the ballot. It doesn’t mean anything though as Biden will get zero delegates out of the state because the Democrat National Committee penalized New Hampshire for going before its plans of doing South Carolina first.

UPDATE 7:26 p.m. ET:

With 7 percent reporting now, Trump has a 7 percent lead over Haley. That lead appears to be growing as more votes are counted. Things are looking dismal for Haley’s future at this stage.

UPDATE 7:23 p.m. ET:

Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report has already called the race for Trump, saying Trump has defeated Haley in the New Hampshire primary:

This early call is terrible for Haley’s prospects, and a sign that pressure will increase on her to end her campaign tonight. A lot of networks will hold off on calling the election until after 8 p.m. ET when the rest of the polls close, but this is about the most terrible outcome for Haley’s prospects of continuing her campaign.

UPDATE 7:16 p.m. ET:

With about 3 percent reporting now according to the New York Times, Trump has caught up to and overtaken Haley for the lead. He’s up by a few hundred votes and about 3 percent now.

UPDATE 7:13 p.m. ET:

About 1 percent is now reporting in New Hampshire, and Haley has an early lead of just over a couple hundred votes. This is very early and viewers cannot read too much into this.

UPDATE 7:00 p.m. ET:

The polls have now closed in most of New Hampshire. The rest of the polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Early results are expected soon.

UPDATE 6:58 p.m. ET:

Haley is getting more and more desperate ahead of tonight to keep her campaign alive beyond New Hampshire, with her staff making two distinct moves on Tuesday to try to protect her from pressure to drop out on Tuesday evening. The first move was to announce a rally in South Carolina on Wednesday, and the second move was to release a memo laying out her Super Tuesday strategy. But even if Haley does well on Tuesday night and survives, she has a very hard pathway from here on out and Trump is clearly the odds-on favorite to win as pressure mounts for the party to unify behind him.

UPDATE 6:53 p.m. ET:

An emerging narrative is whether leftists infiltrated the primary for the GOP to try to steer it away from Trump to Haley–and with high numbers of registered undeclared voters turning out it may be a story tonight:

When results start coming in it may be clearer whether this matters or not.

UPDATE 6:52 p.m. ET:

Polls close in just a few minutes in most of New Hampshire–and in just over an hour in the rest of the state.

Exit polling reveals that immigration is far and away the number one issue to New Hampshire GOP primary voters. Fox News exit polling shows that 41 percent view immigration as the top issue. Thirty-one percent view the economy as the top issue, and everything else is in single digits.

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