The Jan. 6 committee is gearing up for what could be its final prime-time public hearing next week, offering viewers at home a version of its closing arguments.
This panel, controlled by Democrats but also seating two Never Trump Republicans, is supposed to determine who did what on the day of the attack on the Capitol two weeks before President Joe Biden was sworn into office.
But the committee is also intended to establish a connection between former President Donald Trump’s claims about and activities contesting the 2020 election with the express purpose of making him less likely to return to the White House after the next one.
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Some of the hearings have made for compelling television. Committee members evince certitude about the events of Jan. 6 and what they mean for American democracy. Nevertheless, a few questions remain.
Do Democrats really want to take Trump off the board for 2024?
The committee would say yes, because Trump is a unique threat to democracy — or a continuation of older ones.
“The problem of politicians whipping up mob violence to destroy fair elections is the oldest domestic enemy of constitutional democracy in America,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) in an opening statement.
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), the committee’s chairman, called the Capitol breach the “culmination of an attempted coup,” going further than former national security adviser John Bolton. “Donald Trump was at the center of that conspiracy. And ultimately, Donald Trump, the president of the United States, spurred a mob of domestic enemies of the Constitution to march down to the Capitol and subvert American democracy,” Thompson said.
“We are more at risk of losing our democracy today than we were a year and a half ago when violent insurrectionists were attacking the building outside, because that big lie has proliferated,” warned Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). “They seem to be trying to prepare to succeed where they failed before, which is if they couldn’t get someone to find 11,780 votes that didn’t exist, they seem determined to have people in those positions next time who will.”
Except that Democrats have been spending money in order to help candidates with these views win Republican primaries, on the assumption that they will be easier to beat in the general election.
Not for the first time, some Democrats have to entertain these hopes about Trump too. Read the polls, Jack.
A particularly damning one for Biden by the New York Times and Siena College found that relatively few Democrats want the incumbent president to serve as the nominee in 2024. (The same pollster also detected some weakening of Trump among Republicans.)
The silver lining for Biden was that the same poll showing him with just a 33% approval rating and spurned in a hypothetical primary by 94% of Democrats under 30 had him leading Trump. “And I would also say from that very same poll, there were 92% of Democrats who support this president as well,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, referring to the matchup with Trump.
What if Democrats can’t dislodge Biden, who has been seeking the presidency for 35 years, in pursuit of more Golden State pastures? Trump may be the only Republican a weakened Biden could beat.
Then again, maybe Democrats don’t want to face Trump, do they?
The conventional wisdom in 2016 was that Trump would be the easiest Republican for Clinton to beat.
“Trump is a significant underdog — he has a 13% chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model and a 23% chance according to polls-plus,” political prognosticator Nate Silver wrote nearly 90 days out from the election. Allowing that Trump could win, Silver added, “But there’s another possibility staring us right in the face: A potential Hillary Clinton landslide.”
We all know how that worked out. What is less often remembered is that Trump came within 43,000 votes in three states of winning a second time in the midst of a pandemic. Republicans going to bed with Trump ahead in the battleground states and then waking up to see those leads fading played a role in their suspicions about the 2020 vote count.
Without a detailed state-by-state breakdown, we don’t know if Biden’s 44% to 41% lead over Trump in the New York Times/Siena College poll would actually translate to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s 2016 popular vote margin was 2.1 percentage points nationally.
Until it’s proven that other Republicans can replicate Trump’s competitiveness in the Rust Belt, perhaps Democrats should be careful what they wish for.
What if Trump wins and the Republicans who curbed his worst instincts after the last election won’t work in the White House?
This is arguably the Jan. 6 committee’s biggest gamble. The main highlights from its hearings have come from Republicans who worked for Trump and now report serious misgivings about how he conducted himself following his first contest with Biden.
Is Trump going to employ any of these people next time? Former Vice President Mike Pence is surely out. Who will get these jobs instead? The Jan. 6 committee witness list at times looks like a second Trump administration blacklist.
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The Senate can keep this tendency somewhat in check through its constitutional advice and consent power. But lots of important jobs, such as the White House staff, don’t require Senate confirmation. Trump can hire who he wants.
What if instead of Pat Cipollone, Sidney Powell or Rudy Giuliani had been the White House counsel on Jan. 6? We might get to find out.
