Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) hopes Tuesday’s primary in a new Colorado House district will put her on safer ground in Congress after a Democratic challenger for her seat put her reelection prospects in danger.
Colorado voters will head to the polls Tuesday to choose among Boebert and five other Republicans hoping to replace ex-Rep. Ken Buck. There will also be a special election to complete the remainder of his term that Boebert is not competing in.
Meanwhile, six Republicans are competing for the nomination to take on Adam Frisch, a Boebert foe running unopposed in the Democratic primary for her seat in the state’s 3rd Congressional District.
Boebert helps herself and GOP with surprise district switch
Boebert surprised the political world in December 2023 when she announced she would forgo running for reelection in the 3rd District, a seat she first won in 2020.
The swap came after the congresswoman began losing donors to her top primary opponent, Jeff Hurd. Republicans also worried that, even if Boebert won the 3rd District primary, she would face defeat in a general election against Frisch, who narrowly lost to her in the 2022 midterm elections. Frisch was drastically outspending and outraising Boebert, causing concern for the GOP that a once reliably Republican seat would flip into Democratic control.
“My boys and I needed a fresh start,” she said when announcing her switch. “That’s been very public of what home life looked like.”
At the time, Boebert was newly divorced, and her ex-husband had been arrested following an alleged domestic altercation.
“I tried to put it into a very pretty package and bring my ex-husband lots of honor,” Boebert said. “But since there is nothing private about my personal life, it is out there, and my boys need some freedom from what has been going on.”
The announcement of Boebert’s switch to the 4th Congressional District boosted Republicans’ chances of holding on to the 3rd District, shifting the seat from a “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Meanwhile, the 4th District is ranked “solid Republican” with a +13 advantage for the GOP. Boebert is the front-runner in the six-way primary contest, with a May 31 Kaplan Strategies poll showing her with 40% of the vote compared to the 5% received by the next highest-polling candidate, businessman Peter Yu.
She is effectively the only candidate running primary TV ads as part of her campaign, per the Colorado Sun, though she must still overcome the negative reports of the last year.
The congresswoman faced scrutiny in April following allegations that she was drunk and admonished by former President Donald Trump’s security detail at the New York Young Republican Club’s annual gala in Manhattan last year. The scandal surfaced three months after she apologized for her “eccentric” behavior at a production of Beetlejuice at a theater in Denver, where patrons reported that she and her male guest were vaping and taking flash photos during the performance.
Trump endorsed Boebert for the GOP primary despite the reports. She has also received support from Douglas County Commissioner George Teal, a 4th District constituent, and endorsements from the Colorado GOP and its chairman, Dave Williams.
Speaker Johnson to get temporary relief with Buck special election
While Boebert and her five opponents vie for a full term in the 4th District, voters will also decide a special election to finish out Buck’s term, which lasts until January. Buck departed Congress early on March 22.
Colorado Republicans selected former Parker, Colorado, Mayor Greg Lopez to be their candidate in the special election. Lopez is favored to win Tuesday, meaning he will serve in Congress for six months.
Lopez could have also decided to run in the regular primary, meaning that Boebert or the other challengers would be facing an incumbent in the race. However, he told the Washington Examiner in his first national interview in April that he planned to finish Buck’s term and return to Colorado.
“I’m not coming up here, you know, saying ‘I want to change the world,’” Lopez said. “I’m coming up here — I feel like I’ve been called to duty. I’m a veteran. And so I’ve been called to duty, and I’m going to honor that duty to the best of my ability, and then I get to go home.”
If Lopez wins Tuesday, he will grant Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and the Republican conference temporary relief by adding another vote to their narrow control of the House. The majority sits at 218-213 with the recent swearing-in of Rep. Vince Fong (R-CA), meaning Johnson can only afford to lose two votes to pass a measure along party lines.
Lopez has not specified what, if any, caucuses he would join and or how he would align ideologically. Instead, he said he would bring back something he feels Congress has lost: mutual respect.
“We all have an opinion, and we should all listen to each other,” the former mayor said. “That doesn’t mean that we need to agree 100%. But having respect enough to say, ‘Can you help me understand? Can you help me understand why you see it in a certain direction?’ I think that’s going to go a long ways.
“My hope is that, you know, in some manner and in some small way, when I go back home, someone’s going to say, ‘You remember what Greg Lopez used to tell us? Maybe we should do some of that,’” he continued. “That’s my hope.”
Trump looms atop the ballot
In the 8th Congressional District, voters will decide which Republican competes for one of the most competitive seats of the November election. Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, will find out on Tuesday whether she faces Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans or former GOP state Rep. Janak Joshi.
Caraveo won her seat with just 48% of the vote during the 2022 midterm elections. Trump won 46% of the vote in the same district in the 2016 and 2020 elections, allowing him to narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton but leaving him 4 percentage points shy of President Joe Biden there four years later.
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In the 5th Congressional District, Republicans are competing to see who will replace Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), who is retiring from Congress after nine terms. The seat, anchored in Colorado Springs, ranks “solid Republican” and drew strong GOP contenders. Williams and talk radio host Jeff Crank are running in the primary, with the state party chairman receiving Trump’s endorsement. The Democratic nominee will be either River Gassen or Joe Reagan.
Lamborn’s district likely will be more of a sweep for Republicans, particularly with Trump on the ballot this year. Trump won 53% of the district’s vote in 2020 and 56% in 2016.
