In an election year where voters are transferring loyalties and an independent presidential candidate has attracted historic levels of support, Hispanic Americans are adding fuel to the fire in Nevada. The Latino community’s growing concern about the economy could spell trouble for President Joe Biden, but its political independence means they’re not in Republicans’ pocket either. Whoever they support, Nevada’s Hispanics will play a critical role in deciding who the country’s next president is this November.
The GOP has made substantial inroads in gaining Hispanic support since former president Barack Obama won the voting block by overwhelming margins in 2012. In the battle between the Democratic president and Republican Mitt Romney, the GOP nominee took only 27% of the Hispanic vote. Just two presidential cycles later, Latino support for Republicans expanded by over 10% nationwide, In 2020, former President Donald Trump claimed 38% of the nation’s Latino vote.
Peter Guzman, the President of the Latin Chamber of Commerce in Nevada, told the Washington Examiner he is seeing a political shift in Nevada’s Latino community. The leader of the most powerful Hispanic chamber in Nevada, boasting 2,000 Latino members, Guzman says he’s watching a movement “away from the Democrat Party.”
While data surrounding the margin of GOP expansion is mixed, it is undeniable that Republicans are making inroads in the Silver State. After the 2016 election, a national exit poll conducted by Edison Research showed Trump captured 29% of the Latino vote in Nevada, a significant increase from Romney’s 24% in 2012. An analysis by the Nevada Independent showed wildly different results than the Edison survey. The newspaper claims that while Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton did receive fewer Latino votes than the previous election cycle, Trump still only garnered 10% of the vote to Clinton’s 88%.
Going by Edison’s data, Trump’s slice of Nevada’s Latino vote expanded at least 6% in 2020, with exit polls showing him at 35%. If the 2016 was closer to the Nevada Independent’s claims, the GOP nominee expanded his lead by 25%.
Michael Flores is a longtime Nevada government affairs and community outreach professional who serves as the Vice President of Government and Community Engagement for the University of Nevada. Flores says the changes in his Hispanic community are real. “There is a shift, and I don’t think that’s just in the polls,” he told the Washington Examiner.
“Voters are doing a lot smarter,” Flores said, “We can’t just assume that a certain age group or certain demographics going to vote a certain way. I think every vote has to be earned.”
With Trump’s well-documented and oft-inflammatory rhetoric on illegal immigration, the former president’s inroads into the Latino community continue to surprise political pundits. A comment from Flores might explain Latinos’ lack of concern: “He’s not talking about me.” Flores says that’s what he hears from his Hispanic community when Trump’s immigration comments come up. Like Guzman, he reiterated that other issues, “like the economy” seem to be more important to Latinos he’s surrounded by in Nevada than the former president’s controversial comments.
Both Guzman and Flores told the Washington Examiner the economy is the top issue for voters this election cycle, which would explain a pivot away from Presidential incumbent Joe Biden. “At the end of the day, I believe people always think about what’s happening with their wallet,” Guzman said, calling the economy “the number one issue” for Latino voters.
Guzman said the Biden administration seems to be missing a golden opportunity to capture the Latino vote. The Hispanic leader lamented that Nevada Latinos aren’t hearing about the issues that matter most to them – the economy, and immigration. “I think all we really hear about is abortion,” Guzman said.
In 2024, 38% of Nevada’s Latino voters cited combined concerns about inflation, the cost of living, jobs, and the economy as their top issues this election. That number is up from 33% in 2016, and down from a record high of 51% in 2020 during the pandemic. Polls show Trump enjoys wide support from Latino voters on economic issues, with 42% support to Biden’s 20%. Only 12% of Nevadan Hispanic voters chose immigration and the border as their top priority in 2024, down from 21% in 2020.
While the economy has overtaken immigration as the top issue for Hispanics, that’s not to say they aren’t frustrated with immigration policy. Nationwide, Trump holds a 7% lead over Biden with Latino support for immigration policy, but Flores and Guzman warned that Nevada Latinos are upset with both parties for failing to pass comprehensive immigration reform.
“There’s a lot of frustration,” Flores says about “the lack of action by Congress. And this is both sides, not just Democrats, but Republicans too. Because when Republicans propose something Democrats, when Democrats propose something, Republicans don’t like it.”
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At the end of the day, “Hispanics are looking at policies over personalities,” Guzman, who is a second-generation immigrant after his father fled Cuba 50 years ago, said.
Flores said that the traditionally Democratic voting block’s shift isn’t about “running to the Republican Party,” but embracing a more independent outlook on politics.
