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Where are the opinion polls now and what if anything can be inferred?The presidential election is heating up as both nominating conventions have concluded.
As we approach the home stretch of the election season, it’s important to take a closer look at the opinion polls.
Where are the opinion polls now and what if anything can be inferred?
It’s essential to remember that polls are a snapshot in time. They survey a small group of individuals and then extrapolate those results to the entire population, in this case, actual voters.
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The surveyed sample is crucial, as oversampling Republicans, Democrats, or Independents can skew the results. While statistical weighting can help even out a skewed sample, the ultimate survey occurs on election day, on Nov. 5.
Rasmussen Reports is a respected pollster that surveys likely voters rather than simply registered voters or anyone who responds to the survey. They recently conducted polling in battleground states, which is more revealing than national polling, as the U.S. presidential election is 50 separate state elections based on the Electoral College.
Winning the national popular vote doesn’t always translate to winning the election as Hillary Clinton learned in 2016.
According to Rasmussen Reports, a recent survey in battleground states revealed a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The survey showed, “If the election were held today, 48% of likely voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris.”
It’s hard to predict the outcome at this point. There are still a few months until the election, and there will likely be at least one October surprise. What are the key issues concerning voters?
It is reminiscent of when Bill Clinton challenged George H.W. Bush in 1992, and the campaign mantra was, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Thirty-five percent (35%) of battleground state voters say the economy is the most important issue for them, followed by border security (17%) and abortion (13%).
Surprisingly illegal immigration and the border fall far behind the economy. That may change as news of Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment buildings in Aurora Colorado, Chicago, Dallas, and New York City makes headlines. Many other cities likely have or will face the same.
An illegal alien truck driver killed a Colorado man and received less than a one-year prison sentence. Deportation? Fat chance in sanctuary Colorado. Voters may change the 2024 election mantra to “It’s the border, stupid.”
Rasmussen Reports noted voter sentiment, “On the issue of illegal immigration, 61% believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays.”
In addition, “Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe it’s likely that the increased illegal immigration in the past few years was purposely allowed by the Biden administration.” Kamala Harris has been the number two in that same Biden administration for almost four years.
She is Biden’s “Border Czar” despite media efforts to suggest otherwise. If Trump can effectively link Harris to the economy and the border, which is quite evident, it would give Trump an advantage on the two most important voter concerns.
Trump’s focus should be on these issues, rather than rehashing the 2020 election or Joe Biden’s dementia. Trump can ask voters, “Are you better or worse off now compared to 4 years ago?” and focus on his economic plan.
What do other polls indicate? The Real Clear Politics average of 12 polls shows Harris up by 1.9 points, but once again these are national polls. However, they also provide an average for battleground states.
In Arizona, it’s Trump up 0.5 point, a tie in Nevada, Harris up 1.4 points in Wisconsin, 1.1 points in Michigan, 0.5 point in Pennsylvania, and Trump up 0.7 point in North Carolina, and 0.2 point in Georgia.
Nate Silver, election analyst and FiveThirtyEight founder believes:
Former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is the slight favorite to defeat Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris this November going into Labor Day weekend and the campaign’s home stretch.
The model update suggests that Trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College while Harris has a 47.3% chance of prevailing, making Trump the favorite in Silver’s model for the first time since August 3.
The bottom line is that today, it’s too close to call. As Rush Limbaugh often said before elections, the deciding factors may be largely or completely unknown at this point.
Wars, pandemics, power grid outages, and other calamities may be looming. Scandals are also in the mix, with Trump being the most investigated human being in history, starting from his famous escalator ride in Trump Tower in June 2015.
If he had skeletons in his closet, we would know about them by now. Could Trump be imprisoned through lawfare? Will Harris crash and burn as Biden did in his debate performance a few months ago?
Assassination is also on the table, as we learned two months ago. Desperate times call for desperate measures and don’t put it past the deep state, either through willful incompetence or intentionality, to attempt it again.
Censorship is increasing, with election interference through the deliberate manipulation and suppression of news and information. Those who exercise their right to free speech are being punished, especially if their speech is inconvenient to the ruling class narrative.
Aside from countries like the U.K. and Brazil stomping the boot of oppression on the neck of free speech, big tech is joining the censorship. For instance, when asked “Why vote for Trump”, Amazon’s Alexa responded, “I cannot provide responses that endorse any political party or its leader.”
However, when asked “Why vote for Harris,” Alexa gushed with “many reasons to vote for Kamala Harris.” Amazon attributed it to “a glitch,” one of many in the tech world that always favors the Democrats. Funny that.
Then there is the Trump-Russia canard. A handful of conservative pundits are accused of working with Russia.
As GatewayPundit reported:
Earlier today the Biden-Harris Regime announced it was launching a ‘whole government action’ to purge so-called ‘Russian propaganda’ and ‘disinformation’ ahead of the 2024 election.
Biden accused Russia of a sustained effort to influence the upcoming election, according to CNN and NBC News.
This smells like an FBI/DOJ/CIA entrapment scheme on par with Jan. 6, the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping attempt, or the Alfa Bank hoax, sowing the seeds for Congress to not certify a Trump electoral victory.
Ask Russian President Vladimir Putin what he thinks about Russia’s desire for Trump to be elected, as reported by MSNBC.
If we can name a favorite candidate, it used to be Joe Biden. Now he’s not participating in the election campaign, and he recommended to all his allies to support (Kamala) Harris, so that is what we are going to do.
Russia wants President Harris, another Democrat patsy. Russia invaded neighboring countries under Obama and Biden, but not Trump. Putin would be wise to say little and let the U.S. government play the Trump-Russia collusion card, installing Putin’s preferred candidate Kamala Harris. That’s the real Russian collusion, not with Trump but with the U.S. ruling class.
A lot of tactics will be used to undermine the intentions of American voters in this crucial election. Opinion polls can give us an idea of what might or should happen, but they may not accurately predict the actual outcome.
How do the candidates look two months out? Trump appears confident and composed, while Harris uses fake accents to appeal to different ethnic groups, often cackling or ignoring tough questions from the media.
Mail-in ballots will be sent out soon, and voters will be making their choices long before Rush Limbaugh’s unknown events materialize. At this point, the race is far from over. Get ready for an exciting September and October and enjoy the show!
Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer. Follow me on Twitter @retinaldoctor, Substack Dr. Brian’s Substack, Truth Social @BrianJoondeph, and LinkedIn @Brian Joondeph.
