Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is one of the most agonizing gut-punches a sports fan can experience.
Already tortured Philadelphia sports fans got to experience that brutal feeling (again) on Monday — and many are pinning the blame on Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni.
Monday night, the Eagles lost to the visiting Atlanta Falcons 22-21 in one of the more egregious coaching malpractices of recent memory.
To set the stage, here’s a tidbit for you: ESPN‘s win probability predictors gave the Eagles a 97.6 percent chance.
The Falcons were able to take advantage of that 2.4 percent due in no small part to a number of coaching blunders from Sirianni down the stretch.
After the Falcons took a 15-10 lead late in the third quarter, the Eagles swiftly responded with a touchdown and two-point conversion to take an 18-15 lead in the fourth quarter.
With that slim lead, the Eagles effectively tried to kill the clock and mostly did so, taking the game all the way to the two-minute warning.
Here’s where the crucial errors reared their ugly heads.
With 1:46 left in the game — and the Falcons out of timeouts — the Eagles had a very manageable 3rd-and-3 conversion to make.
Had they converted on that play, the game would have been over due to Atlanta’s lack of timeouts.
Even had they not converted the play, many expected the Eagles to run the football, which would’ve kept the clock running and given the Falcons far less time for a potential game-winning drive.
Instead, the Eagles did this:
You can take Saquon out of the Giants but you can’t take the Giants out of Saquon pic.twitter.com/DWTANpsBpO
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 17, 2024
Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw a simple pass to star running back Saquon Barkley … only for the Pro Bowl running back to drop the gimme.
That playcall would’ve been bad enough on its own, but then internet sleuths noticed that Sirianni compounded that error with a “sneaky big error” immediately thereafter.
That error? Kicking a field goal to take the 21-15 lead.
The advanced analytics hated the decision:
That was a sneaky big error on 4th-and-3!
You lose either way if they score a touchdown. And opponents are irrationally conservative down 3. They will go for the win now. pic.twitter.com/Nr9tEOMNom
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 17, 2024
“That was a sneaky big error on 4th-and-3!” wrote ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder.
The ESPN writer included a graphic that showed the move with a better chance of winning would’ve been to try again to convert on 4th-and-3, by just about 5 percent.
Should the Eagles have gone for it on 4th down?
Yes: 82% (67 Votes)
No: 18% (15 Votes)
But even if 5 percent doesn’t mean much to you (or if you’re not a fan of advanced analytics), far simpler math shows the error of Sirianni’s decision-making.
Walder effectively argued that the three extra points Sirianni got with a successful field goal doesn’t move the needle much because it’s still a one-possession game. With or without that made field goal, the Eagles would’ve lost had the Falcons scored a responding touchdown.
Given that, it would’ve made far more sense for the Eagles to try and convert the three yards and kill the clock.
The ESPN analytics guru also delved a bit into psychology, arguing that “opponents are irrationally conservative down 3.” He’s basically saying that team’s will almost always play for a tie when down three, as opposed to going for a 7-point touchdown-and-PAT when down six.
Walder also correctly predicted that the Falcons and star quarterback Kirk Cousins “will go for the win now”:
The entire game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins and the @AtlantaFalcons. #ATLvsPHI pic.twitter.com/7ms5Esas7b
— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2024
The 1-1 Eagles won’t have to wait long to get back on a winning track, as the team plays just six days from Monday, on Sept. 22., when Philadelphia travels to face the undefeated New Orleans Saints.
The 1-1 Falcons, meanwhile, also have just six days to recuperate, but at least get to stay home, when Atlanta hosts the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. Advertise Today.
