Authored by Peter Hanseler via VoiceFromRussia.ch,
In order to understand Russia’s current strength, stance and strategy, it is necessary to understand developments since 1990. Only then will it become clear why President Putin is doing what he is doing and why he will be successful.
Development since 1990
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was devastated. Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s first president, did not succeed in lifting the country out of its misery. There were solid reasons for this, both inside and outside Russia.
In an article by Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Matt Tahibi entitled “Economist Jeffrey Sachs Reveals How Neocons Subverted Russia’s Financial Stabilization In Early 1990s”, the explosiveness and importance of which cannot be overestimated, both transparently reveal the US strategy towards the Soviet Union and Russia from 1990 onwards.
The West – under the leadership of the US – pursued an unequivocal strategy of destruction. Sachs provides first-hand evidence that Poland, which later became an EU and NATO member, was helped back on its feet from 1989 with billions in aid from the G7, the IMF and other Western institutions – and very successfully so.
The approach to Russia was completely different. Russia was never supposed to become a partner of the West and Professor Sachs shows how, as an advisor to Gorbachev and then Yeltsin, he failed to organize support from the West. The US’s goal was not the recovery of Russia, but the disintegration of the country into small, digestible portions, which would then be taken over by puppets from the US. This plan is still being pursued today with enormous effort and is currently culminating in the war in Ukraine. We already reported on this last summer in an article entitled “The planned dismemberment of Russia”.
Russia after the planned dismemberment
The high point on the road to Russia’s destruction came in the late summer of 1998, when Russia’s economy collapsed, the rouble lost 99.9% of its value and the state could no longer service its debts. The US was almost at the end of its rope.
Things turned out differently – a previously inconspicuous and little-known man came to the levers of power – Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s development under President Putin
President Yeltsin first appointed Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister in 1999. On the last day of the same year, he was then inaugurated as President of the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin, the new president, was faced with the ruins of a once dreaded world power. The economy was in ruins, the infrastructure practically non-existent, the people disillusioned. A few oligarchs who, with the help of American investment banks, had snatched up Russia’s prime assets, controlled politics in order to steal even more at the expense of the general public. The army – at all times the backbone of the Russian state – was a mere shadow of its former self and NATO’s eastward expansion was in full swing.
In short, Russia was in a deplorable state and many observers did not give the country much chance of survival as an entity.
President Putin achieved the almost impossible. First of all, he removed the oligarchs from power politically in a way that was highly publicized. He ensured that wages, salaries and, above all, pensions were gradually paid again – regularly and in accordance with the law. In doing so, he created a basis for later trust. As a result, the foundations were laid in all areas of life and the economy, which enabled the subsequent upswing.
These few words describing this unprecedented process of change do not begin to convey the colossal problems that had to be solved. It took years for the first successes to become visible and tangible for the population and this development continues to this day.
The course of the young president’s first years in office are the source of the phenomenon that the political West simply cannot understand and is not willing to comprehend, and which can be described in its own way as basic trust in Putin. Putin ensured wages, pensions, food, basic compliance with the law, stability and prosperity – the basis for modern Russia.
In terms of foreign policy, President Putin initially sought proximity to the West and pursued a policy aimed at making Russia a partner of the EU on an equal footing and developing friendly relations with the US. After 9/11, Putin even allowed the US to use Russian airfields.
Munich speech – Georgia – Maidan – Syria
In his famous address in Munich on 10 February 2007 at the Munich Security Conference, President Putin criticized for the first time the monopolistic dominance of the US and its almost unchecked use of force in international relations as well as the unstoppable eastward expansion of NATO. A surprising turn of events for the West. It was forced to acknowledge that Russia would no longer accept this development.
Georgia’s 2008 attack on its breakaway territories under Russian patronage – organized and orchestrated by the US – meant that Russia was forced to reassess the structure and armament of its military in light of the given threat situation. Under the pretext of reclaiming former Georgian territories, the real aim of the aggression was to create the conditions for the admission of new countries to NATO – namely Georgia and Ukraine and thus, above all, to weaken Russia.
The admission of Georgia and Ukraine was to be approved at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Surprisingly, Russia was also invited to the summit as a guest – proof of how weak the US considered the Russian Federation to be at the time.
All these events forced Russia to devote a great deal of energy to rebuilding its military. This was only possible because the economic and political conditions had been created in the meantime.
Maidan 2013/14 and an eight-year covert war by the West against the ethnic Russian Donbass confirmed the decisions Russia had made in 2008.
Non-compliance with the Minsk I and II agreements – initially expressly welcomed by Russia, in reliance on Germany in particular, as an effective instrument for settling the cruel intra-Ukrainian disputes – ultimately put an end to any trust Russia had in the political leaders of the West and Western diplomacy as a whole. They did not want a peaceful solution.
Russia first demonstrated its new military strength in Syria in 2015. Through its intervention, the American plans to destroy Syria as part of the Wolfowitz Plan of 1992 failed. Russia achieved the turnaround in Syria with a skilful military approach using a very manageable force.
The strategic capabilities of the Russian leadership
Clearly defined overall strategy is being consistently implemented
President Putin sees the war in Ukraine as just one piece in a big chess game that began with the fall of the Soviet Union with its 64 squares spanning the entire globe. He repeatedly referred to this in his speeches. In my opinion, it borders on imbecility that the West does not give President Putin’s speeches the attention they deserve. Unlike many Western leaders, Putin is a prime example of strategic transparency. He implements exactly what he articulates in his speeches. This may come as a surprise to the West. It is also becoming increasingly evident that Western strategy is limited to being against Russia. As a result, the West has no strategies at all for its own interests. The economic and social downfall of Germany as a de facto colony of the US is a prime example of this. See my article “Germany is a naive pawn of the US with no power to turn things around”.
The fact that Russia is stronger today than at any time in its recent history is based on a rational, systematic and forward-looking long-term strategy, not just by Putin, but by the entire Russian leadership over the last 24 years.
The reasons why Russia has not only survived the biggest sanctions storm ever organized by the West, but has actually prospered, can be found precisely in these factors. The Russian leadership anticipated the West’s policy and made the necessary and, above all, correct political and economic decisions years in advance. Today, despite the Western sanctions storm, Russia has healthy economic and social foundations that allow it to react quickly and efficiently to any new economic attacks.
The result has astonished the West: Russia is one of the few countries without net debt. This year it can boast economic growth of over 5%. In contrast, the US and the EU are effectively in recession and bankrupt by any balance sheet standard, which is becoming increasingly evident as the manipulation of economic figures becomes less and less effective at disguising the truth.
The political West’s view of President Putin as a dictator who does and controls everything himself cannot be any further from reality. Putin has gathered a team around him that largely consists of absolute top people who understand their tasks and can fulfill them competently. In recent months in particular, this has included an uncompromising fight against corruption throughout the country, which does not even stop at ministers and takes place very publicly. The consistency shown here is extraordinary and shows that Russia is preparing for a long conflict, even if not all the swamps have been drained yet.
In addition to the economic strengthening during this crisis and the clear military victory on the front, Russia has managed to become the foreign policy and diplomatic heavyweight of the Global South alongside China. Russia’s partnership with China is reflected in an increasingly effective coordination of their decision-making. With the BRICS and SCO organizations, these two giants are forging economic and security policy organizations that will bid farewell to the hegemonistic system of the West and turn this world into a multipolar community of states.
Kursk and further Western escalation
Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region caught Russia by surprise. The reaction of the Russian leadership and the population made it clear almost from the outset that even this action, which was simply impossible without Western coordination and material support, would not be able to divert Russia from its path. It will be weeks before the Ukrainian troops are driven out, but ultimately the invasion of Kursk will only accelerate the end of the current political Ukraine. The operation has already failed and will probably go down in history as being the last stand of a loser.
This is also reflected in the fact that Kiev is constantly trying to re-explain the purpose of this military suicide mission. If the declared aim was to obtain a bargaining chip by occupying the Kursk nuclear power plant, for example, this aim was not achieved. The explanations were then changed to the effect that the aim was to force the Russians to withdraw their units from the Donbass to Kursk in order to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian troops. This did not happen either and the actions of the Russian troops even accelerated.
The aim of terrifying the Russian population was also not achieved. The fact that Russian territory was attacked for the first time since 1941 had the opposite effect on the Russian population. Estimates show that up to almost 30 thousand Ukrainians and Western mercenaries invaded Kursk and that over 12,000 of them have already been killed. It can be assumed that the remaining troops will be wiped out over the coming weeks and months. These forces are now missing at the front in the Donbass; they were the best that could still be assembled.
I expect the Americans to escalate the conflict further. The Americans will probably supply the JASSMs, which can be fired from the F16s. This weapon will – depending on the design – theoretically be capable to reach even Moscow; theoretically, because to reach Moscow it would be necessary to bring an F-16 to the east of Ukraine, which is not impossible due to the dense Russian air defense, but should be associated with considerable difficulties – and impossible without Western logistical support.
Such long-range weapons will go down in history as the next new wonder weapon, which will change the course of the war, but – like all others – will have no influence on the course of the war. We already explained this 18 months ago in our article “Wonder weapons, weapon systems and gibbeerish” and we were right.
Will President Putin allow himself to be provoked by these ultimately militarily ineffective provocations, which will have no influence whatsoever on the final outcome?
True strategists have endless patience
The patience of President Putin is repeatedly pondered – by both pro-Western and pro-Russian exponents. One commentator on our article “Kursk: invasion, start of war, distraction, pledge?” quoted the proverb “Beware the fury of a patient man.” by John Dryden.
In my opinion, however, describing the attitude of President Putin and his team as patient is an oversimplification and in no way captures the essence of Russian strategy. A chess player without patience inevitably loses. A gifted chess player creates the conditions for victory over his opponent by patiently implementing a strategy once it has been recognized as correct.
Putin’s chessboard stretches as far as Russian interests extend. He will not change his strategy, which has proven its worth over the last 24 years, by reacting emotionally to the events in Kursk or the missile strikes in Russia, which are very painful for the affected population. In my opinion, anyone who believes that Russia can be provoked in this way is wrong and has – once again – failed to understand Russia’s strategy and its implementation. The fact that the entire West is pursuing this course of provocation and believes in it is by no means an argument for its success, but rather shows that the West has no strategy at all. The lack of strategy is easily demonstrated: In our article “The consequences of the intercepted German Luftwaffe conversation mean war”, we described a possible target for Russia in response for the use of Taurus. Let’s assume that Russia would carry out such a strike, which, by the way, would be unproblematic. What would Germany’s reaction be? – Screaming, nothing more. The whole of NATO in Europe would have no instruments to respond in a serious manner. NATO would have no chance in a conventional conflict. That is not an assertion, but a fact. NATO has been getting a bloody nose in Ukraine over the past two and a half years, at the expense of the Ukrainians. The NATO forces themselves do not have any serious armed forces in Europe, neither in terms of size nor quality. The only first-class army in NATO is that of Turkey and it will certainly not march against Russia. Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 with an army of almost four million men, and the Soviet Union was poorly prepared militarily at the time. The result is a well-known fact. What would happen if NATO were to invade Russia with a few hundred thousand soldiers from various NATO member states, a Russia that has never been so militarily strong and war-tested? A downright ridiculous thought.
Thoughts on Russia’s next steps
Fundamental principle
Any reaction by Russia must be understood in the context of the overall situation on the global chessboard. With regard to Ukraine, President Putin’s goals are known in principle and have been clearly communicated time and again since February 2022: Denazification, demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine (NATO) and the retention of Crimea (Istanbul 2022) as well as the retention of the regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Saparoshia, and Kherson (Istanbul+) by Russia.
As President Putin is aware of the US’s long-term strategy (dismemberment of Russia) and the broken agreements (1991 and Minsk I + II), Russia will not be willing to agree to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. Negotiations will take place at the earliest when there are no more Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil; this includes the four regions mentioned above, which are now part of Russia.
These goals are currently within Russia’s grasp. The situation in Kursk, i.e. the deployment of Ukrainian troops, has accelerated in recent days and it can be assumed that this suicide mission by the West will very soon be history. If one follows the developments on the Donbass front, one can see that the advance of the Russians is accelerating daily and it is only a matter of time before the Russian forces are on the Dnieper. The Ukrainian armed forces are virtually disintegrating. There is a shortage of soldiers and material.
Diplomacy
Trump’s candidate for the vice presidency, Senator Vance, explained the peace proposal that Trump would probably put forward: (1) A demarcation line along which the then existing front line would run and be fortified so that the Russians could not attack again; (2) Guarantee of Ukraine’s neutrality towards Russia, i.e. no membership in NATO or other allied institutions. (3) The Germans and other European countries should finance the rebuilding of western Ukraine.
As expected, the Trump-Vance campaign’s proposed policy on Ukraine is nothing less than forcing the Government of Ukraine to formally cede all occupied territory and abandon accession to NATO or other “allied institutions” with a guarantee of neutrality to Russia. pic.twitter.com/ycfqDSv3s1
— John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) September 12, 2024
By November, the Russians will probably be on the Dnieper and thus have achieved militarily what Vance and Trump intend territorially – or even more.
(President) Zelensky will be fuming if this plan is implemented. He himself exercises his power without a legal basis because his term of office expired in May and he did not stand for re-election. How could he? He no longer has any popular support and the war is lost. He must fear not only for his power, but for his life. Anyone who believes that he will lead a sweet life in exile – for example in Miami – with his stolen billions does not have a clue about the Americans. The American plan in Ukraine has failed, so the US no longer needs this man in Kiev and the heavily cocaine-addicted Selenski knows too much. He will probably suffer the same fate as Ngo Dinh Diem, who was executed – probably on US orders – on November 2, 1963. Problem solved.
The typical end of an American puppet: Ngo Dinh Diem
Europe, especially Germany, will be furious. As a loyal vassal of US interests in Ukraine, Germany has ruined itself economically and socially and contributed to the destruction of Ukraine with its military and financial support. If Trump becomes president, he will abandon Germany and leave the bill for reconstruction on the table in Berlin.
However, the peace plan is not only a disaster for Selenski and Europe, but also for the deep state in the US. Trump realizes that the US cannot afford a war against Russia, not even financially, and he would accept another foreign policy and military defeat. The deep state does not. I explained why in my article “US Elections Decide War or Peace”. The aforementioned plan to dismember Russia would be set back decades or made completely impossible by a Trump-style peace. The fact that the Deep State is doing everything it can to prevent a Trump election was already evident in this week’s debate: the two ABC “journalists” who were supposed to conduct this debate neutrally were actually fighting for Kamala Harris, who has close ties to the head of ABC.
It is not clear who will win this election, but I suspect that Donald Trump’s life is in danger.
American pressure on BRICS countries
It is obvious that the U.S. is putting massive pressure on the BRCS countries – especially Brazil and India – to get Russia to negotiate. These countries, which do business with both the Global South and the Collective West, are trying to pass this pressure on to Russia.
China is also being pressured, with the result that payment transactions between Russia and China are currently being disrupted due to pressure on Chinese banks. China’s relationship with Russia is characterized by strong economic cooperation, but strategically – especially for the Chinese – it is military. China’s interest in a Russian victory over NATO in Ukraine is vital to the survival of the Middle Kingdom. As the declared main enemy of the U.S. in its struggle to maintain its hegemony, China will only be able to withstand this pressure as long as Russia is strong on its side. China’s chances of winning this battle – which will be fought over the next few generations – depend militarily on Russia. Although China has a very large army, which is constantly being expanded, and an impressive high-tech arsenal of weapons, China has no experience of war – in stark contrast to Russia. Andrei Martyanov convincingly argues that Russia today has the only armed force in the world that masters “combined warfare,” an indispensable prerequisite for winning a real military conflict. Real means against a serious enemy. This is precisely why Ukraine – even with the active help of NATO – has no chance against Russia.
Russia is certainly taking these calls from its BRICS partners seriously at the diplomatic level, but will not deviate from its strategy in any way.
Russia’s reactions to the Western escalation
The attack on the Kursk region has already had consequences, such as the destruction of the NATO-run training center in Poltava at the beginning of September. In this center, Ukrainian troops were trained by NATO officers for drone and missile attacks on Russia. According to my sources, around 720 soldiers were killed in this attack, including a large number of NATO instructors from Sweden, Germany, France and Poland. Not mercenaries, but NATO officers.
Large numbers of personnel were trained in Poltava to operate drones and for electronic reconnaissance. Sweden intended to sell two SAAB 340 AEW Erieye aircraft, a smaller version of the American AWACS aircraft.
SAAB 340 AEW Erieye
Sweden also trained personnel for this purpose in Poltava. The completely surprising resignation of the Swedish foreign minister the morning after the Russian attack should not surprise anyone.
An indication that this information is true are the movements of some huge Lockheed Martin K 130 aircraft, which in the Medvac version can transport 74 wounded. A large number of Medvac flights were carried out by Poland, Germany and Romania. This makes the claim that many NATO personnel were injured very credible.
Screenshot: Flight-Radar. 05. September 2024
President Putin comments on the use of long-range weapons against Russia on September 12
President Putin does not see the permission of the US and the UK to use Western long-range weapons against Russia as permission, but as a clear and direct entry of NATO countries into a war against Russia. He justifies this view with the fact that these attacks cannot be carried out by Ukraine without NATO support. On the one hand, Ukraine has no satellite reconnaissance of its own and, on the other, it does not have the personnel to provide technical support for the weapons systems.
President Putin’s conclusion verbatim:
If this decision is taken, it will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct involvement, and this, of course, significantly changes the essence, the nature of the conflict.
It means that the NATO countries, the United States and the European countries are at war with Russia. And if that is the case, then given the changed nature of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will arise for us.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75092
These statements by President Putin are once again a brilliant move. They automatically provide him with a legal basis for an attack on any NATO member in the event that these long-range weapons are used. He doesn’t have to – but he can – at any time.
Conclusion
President Putin is well aware of the long-term U.S. strategy toward Russia: the dismemberment of Russia.
During his first 22 years in office, Putin tried to solve this problem diplomatically by refraining from the use of armed force until February 2022. On the one hand, this prolonged use of diplomatic means by Putin is hushed up by the West or interpreted as weakness. On the other hand, this angelic patience is sometimes blamed on him within his own ranks.
In the period up to 2022, Russia flourished thanks to an unprecedented economic and social policy that can only be compared to Germany’s postwar recovery after World War II, although the comparison is not entirely accurate: Germany was backed by huge resources, mainly from the US, to make its success possible. Russia did not have this privilege, but achieved it on its own, which makes Russia’s recovery since 2000 all the more impressive.
Putin’s strategy is a holistic, global chess game, balanced down to the last detail and based on such a stable foundation that even the biggest storm of sanctions ever initiated by the West not only failed to damage the Russian economy, but actually led to an economic upturn.
Militarily, Russia today has no opponents: the West has no strategy – neither geopolitical nor military – but uses propaganda as its main weapon and is embarrassing itself on the battlefield to such an extent that it would make you laugh if schadenfreude were appropriate – it’s not: countless people are dying as a result of these cynical games organized by a few sociopaths, and the media in the West are either bought or so stupid that you can’t laugh.
Russia is going to end this war and dictate the terms. What’s amazing is that according to Vice Presidential candidate Vance, a possible President Trump would come very close to the Kremlin’s terms. However, it’s anyone’s guess whether Trump will live to see the election, as the Deep State will do everything it can to keep the war ball in play; it can only succeed without Trump.
My guess is that the attacks on Russia with drones and missiles – including long-range missiles – will continue and intensify. Like the Kursk adventure, these actions will have no impact on the overall military situation. The situation on the main front is increasingly becoming a disaster for Ukraine: Russian territorial gains are developing rapidly, and Ukrainian losses are mounting as conscripted soldiers desert in increasing numbers. This has even been reported by CNN, another indication of the catastrophic situation in which Ukraine finds itself.
I do not rule out a Russian attack on a NATO base outside Ukraine – one should never do that – but I think it is unlikely at this point. However, if long-range attacks on Russia were to be staged from Poland or Romania, they would also be legally justified.
The Russians are known to react unconventionally, so American bases in the Middle East are obvious targets that the Russians could attack – this time through their proxies.
Let’s hope for some residual sanity in Western decision-making centers so that things don’t take a turn for the worst.
Authored by Peter Hanseler via VoiceFromRussia.ch,
In order to understand Russia’s current strength, stance and strategy, it is necessary to understand developments since 1990. Only then will it become clear why President Putin is doing what he is doing and why he will be successful.
Development since 1990
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was devastated. Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s first president, did not succeed in lifting the country out of its misery. There were solid reasons for this, both inside and outside Russia.
In an article by Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Matt Tahibi entitled “Economist Jeffrey Sachs Reveals How Neocons Subverted Russia’s Financial Stabilization In Early 1990s”, the explosiveness and importance of which cannot be overestimated, both transparently reveal the US strategy towards the Soviet Union and Russia from 1990 onwards.
The West – under the leadership of the US – pursued an unequivocal strategy of destruction. Sachs provides first-hand evidence that Poland, which later became an EU and NATO member, was helped back on its feet from 1989 with billions in aid from the G7, the IMF and other Western institutions – and very successfully so.
The approach to Russia was completely different. Russia was never supposed to become a partner of the West and Professor Sachs shows how, as an advisor to Gorbachev and then Yeltsin, he failed to organize support from the West. The US’s goal was not the recovery of Russia, but the disintegration of the country into small, digestible portions, which would then be taken over by puppets from the US. This plan is still being pursued today with enormous effort and is currently culminating in the war in Ukraine. We already reported on this last summer in an article entitled “The planned dismemberment of Russia”.
Russia after the planned dismemberment
The high point on the road to Russia’s destruction came in the late summer of 1998, when Russia’s economy collapsed, the rouble lost 99.9% of its value and the state could no longer service its debts. The US was almost at the end of its rope.
Things turned out differently – a previously inconspicuous and little-known man came to the levers of power – Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s development under President Putin
President Yeltsin first appointed Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister in 1999. On the last day of the same year, he was then inaugurated as President of the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin, the new president, was faced with the ruins of a once dreaded world power. The economy was in ruins, the infrastructure practically non-existent, the people disillusioned. A few oligarchs who, with the help of American investment banks, had snatched up Russia’s prime assets, controlled politics in order to steal even more at the expense of the general public. The army – at all times the backbone of the Russian state – was a mere shadow of its former self and NATO’s eastward expansion was in full swing.
In short, Russia was in a deplorable state and many observers did not give the country much chance of survival as an entity.
President Putin achieved the almost impossible. First of all, he removed the oligarchs from power politically in a way that was highly publicized. He ensured that wages, salaries and, above all, pensions were gradually paid again – regularly and in accordance with the law. In doing so, he created a basis for later trust. As a result, the foundations were laid in all areas of life and the economy, which enabled the subsequent upswing.
These few words describing this unprecedented process of change do not begin to convey the colossal problems that had to be solved. It took years for the first successes to become visible and tangible for the population and this development continues to this day.
The course of the young president’s first years in office are the source of the phenomenon that the political West simply cannot understand and is not willing to comprehend, and which can be described in its own way as basic trust in Putin. Putin ensured wages, pensions, food, basic compliance with the law, stability and prosperity – the basis for modern Russia.
In terms of foreign policy, President Putin initially sought proximity to the West and pursued a policy aimed at making Russia a partner of the EU on an equal footing and developing friendly relations with the US. After 9/11, Putin even allowed the US to use Russian airfields.
Munich speech – Georgia – Maidan – Syria
In his famous address in Munich on 10 February 2007 at the Munich Security Conference, President Putin criticized for the first time the monopolistic dominance of the US and its almost unchecked use of force in international relations as well as the unstoppable eastward expansion of NATO. A surprising turn of events for the West. It was forced to acknowledge that Russia would no longer accept this development.
Georgia’s 2008 attack on its breakaway territories under Russian patronage – organized and orchestrated by the US – meant that Russia was forced to reassess the structure and armament of its military in light of the given threat situation. Under the pretext of reclaiming former Georgian territories, the real aim of the aggression was to create the conditions for the admission of new countries to NATO – namely Georgia and Ukraine and thus, above all, to weaken Russia.
The admission of Georgia and Ukraine was to be approved at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Surprisingly, Russia was also invited to the summit as a guest – proof of how weak the US considered the Russian Federation to be at the time.
All these events forced Russia to devote a great deal of energy to rebuilding its military. This was only possible because the economic and political conditions had been created in the meantime.
Maidan 2013/14 and an eight-year covert war by the West against the ethnic Russian Donbass confirmed the decisions Russia had made in 2008.
Non-compliance with the Minsk I and II agreements – initially expressly welcomed by Russia, in reliance on Germany in particular, as an effective instrument for settling the cruel intra-Ukrainian disputes – ultimately put an end to any trust Russia had in the political leaders of the West and Western diplomacy as a whole. They did not want a peaceful solution.
Russia first demonstrated its new military strength in Syria in 2015. Through its intervention, the American plans to destroy Syria as part of the Wolfowitz Plan of 1992 failed. Russia achieved the turnaround in Syria with a skilful military approach using a very manageable force.
The strategic capabilities of the Russian leadership
Clearly defined overall strategy is being consistently implemented
President Putin sees the war in Ukraine as just one piece in a big chess game that began with the fall of the Soviet Union with its 64 squares spanning the entire globe. He repeatedly referred to this in his speeches. In my opinion, it borders on imbecility that the West does not give President Putin’s speeches the attention they deserve. Unlike many Western leaders, Putin is a prime example of strategic transparency. He implements exactly what he articulates in his speeches. This may come as a surprise to the West. It is also becoming increasingly evident that Western strategy is limited to being against Russia. As a result, the West has no strategies at all for its own interests. The economic and social downfall of Germany as a de facto colony of the US is a prime example of this. See my article “Germany is a naive pawn of the US with no power to turn things around”.
The fact that Russia is stronger today than at any time in its recent history is based on a rational, systematic and forward-looking long-term strategy, not just by Putin, but by the entire Russian leadership over the last 24 years.
The reasons why Russia has not only survived the biggest sanctions storm ever organized by the West, but has actually prospered, can be found precisely in these factors. The Russian leadership anticipated the West’s policy and made the necessary and, above all, correct political and economic decisions years in advance. Today, despite the Western sanctions storm, Russia has healthy economic and social foundations that allow it to react quickly and efficiently to any new economic attacks.
The result has astonished the West: Russia is one of the few countries without net debt. This year it can boast economic growth of over 5%. In contrast, the US and the EU are effectively in recession and bankrupt by any balance sheet standard, which is becoming increasingly evident as the manipulation of economic figures becomes less and less effective at disguising the truth.
The political West’s view of President Putin as a dictator who does and controls everything himself cannot be any further from reality. Putin has gathered a team around him that largely consists of absolute top people who understand their tasks and can fulfill them competently. In recent months in particular, this has included an uncompromising fight against corruption throughout the country, which does not even stop at ministers and takes place very publicly. The consistency shown here is extraordinary and shows that Russia is preparing for a long conflict, even if not all the swamps have been drained yet.
In addition to the economic strengthening during this crisis and the clear military victory on the front, Russia has managed to become the foreign policy and diplomatic heavyweight of the Global South alongside China. Russia’s partnership with China is reflected in an increasingly effective coordination of their decision-making. With the BRICS and SCO organizations, these two giants are forging economic and security policy organizations that will bid farewell to the hegemonistic system of the West and turn this world into a multipolar community of states.
Kursk and further Western escalation
Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region caught Russia by surprise. The reaction of the Russian leadership and the population made it clear almost from the outset that even this action, which was simply impossible without Western coordination and material support, would not be able to divert Russia from its path. It will be weeks before the Ukrainian troops are driven out, but ultimately the invasion of Kursk will only accelerate the end of the current political Ukraine. The operation has already failed and will probably go down in history as being the last stand of a loser.
This is also reflected in the fact that Kiev is constantly trying to re-explain the purpose of this military suicide mission. If the declared aim was to obtain a bargaining chip by occupying the Kursk nuclear power plant, for example, this aim was not achieved. The explanations were then changed to the effect that the aim was to force the Russians to withdraw their units from the Donbass to Kursk in order to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian troops. This did not happen either and the actions of the Russian troops even accelerated.
The aim of terrifying the Russian population was also not achieved. The fact that Russian territory was attacked for the first time since 1941 had the opposite effect on the Russian population. Estimates show that up to almost 30 thousand Ukrainians and Western mercenaries invaded Kursk and that over 12,000 of them have already been killed. It can be assumed that the remaining troops will be wiped out over the coming weeks and months. These forces are now missing at the front in the Donbass; they were the best that could still be assembled.
I expect the Americans to escalate the conflict further. The Americans will probably supply the JASSMs, which can be fired from the F16s. This weapon will – depending on the design – theoretically be capable to reach even Moscow; theoretically, because to reach Moscow it would be necessary to bring an F-16 to the east of Ukraine, which is not impossible due to the dense Russian air defense, but should be associated with considerable difficulties – and impossible without Western logistical support.
Such long-range weapons will go down in history as the next new wonder weapon, which will change the course of the war, but – like all others – will have no influence on the course of the war. We already explained this 18 months ago in our article “Wonder weapons, weapon systems and gibbeerish” and we were right.
Will President Putin allow himself to be provoked by these ultimately militarily ineffective provocations, which will have no influence whatsoever on the final outcome?
True strategists have endless patience
The patience of President Putin is repeatedly pondered – by both pro-Western and pro-Russian exponents. One commentator on our article “Kursk: invasion, start of war, distraction, pledge?” quoted the proverb “Beware the fury of a patient man.” by John Dryden.
In my opinion, however, describing the attitude of President Putin and his team as patient is an oversimplification and in no way captures the essence of Russian strategy. A chess player without patience inevitably loses. A gifted chess player creates the conditions for victory over his opponent by patiently implementing a strategy once it has been recognized as correct.
Putin’s chessboard stretches as far as Russian interests extend. He will not change his strategy, which has proven its worth over the last 24 years, by reacting emotionally to the events in Kursk or the missile strikes in Russia, which are very painful for the affected population. In my opinion, anyone who believes that Russia can be provoked in this way is wrong and has – once again – failed to understand Russia’s strategy and its implementation. The fact that the entire West is pursuing this course of provocation and believes in it is by no means an argument for its success, but rather shows that the West has no strategy at all. The lack of strategy is easily demonstrated: In our article “The consequences of the intercepted German Luftwaffe conversation mean war”, we described a possible target for Russia in response for the use of Taurus. Let’s assume that Russia would carry out such a strike, which, by the way, would be unproblematic. What would Germany’s reaction be? – Screaming, nothing more. The whole of NATO in Europe would have no instruments to respond in a serious manner. NATO would have no chance in a conventional conflict. That is not an assertion, but a fact. NATO has been getting a bloody nose in Ukraine over the past two and a half years, at the expense of the Ukrainians. The NATO forces themselves do not have any serious armed forces in Europe, neither in terms of size nor quality. The only first-class army in NATO is that of Turkey and it will certainly not march against Russia. Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 with an army of almost four million men, and the Soviet Union was poorly prepared militarily at the time. The result is a well-known fact. What would happen if NATO were to invade Russia with a few hundred thousand soldiers from various NATO member states, a Russia that has never been so militarily strong and war-tested? A downright ridiculous thought.
Thoughts on Russia’s next steps
Fundamental principle
Any reaction by Russia must be understood in the context of the overall situation on the global chessboard. With regard to Ukraine, President Putin’s goals are known in principle and have been clearly communicated time and again since February 2022: Denazification, demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine (NATO) and the retention of Crimea (Istanbul 2022) as well as the retention of the regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Saparoshia, and Kherson (Istanbul+) by Russia.
As President Putin is aware of the US’s long-term strategy (dismemberment of Russia) and the broken agreements (1991 and Minsk I + II), Russia will not be willing to agree to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. Negotiations will take place at the earliest when there are no more Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil; this includes the four regions mentioned above, which are now part of Russia.
These goals are currently within Russia’s grasp. The situation in Kursk, i.e. the deployment of Ukrainian troops, has accelerated in recent days and it can be assumed that this suicide mission by the West will very soon be history. If one follows the developments on the Donbass front, one can see that the advance of the Russians is accelerating daily and it is only a matter of time before the Russian forces are on the Dnieper. The Ukrainian armed forces are virtually disintegrating. There is a shortage of soldiers and material.
Diplomacy
Trump’s candidate for the vice presidency, Senator Vance, explained the peace proposal that Trump would probably put forward: (1) A demarcation line along which the then existing front line would run and be fortified so that the Russians could not attack again; (2) Guarantee of Ukraine’s neutrality towards Russia, i.e. no membership in NATO or other allied institutions. (3) The Germans and other European countries should finance the rebuilding of western Ukraine.
As expected, the Trump-Vance campaign’s proposed policy on Ukraine is nothing less than forcing the Government of Ukraine to formally cede all occupied territory and abandon accession to NATO or other “allied institutions” with a guarantee of neutrality to Russia. pic.twitter.com/ycfqDSv3s1
— John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) September 12, 2024
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By November, the Russians will probably be on the Dnieper and thus have achieved militarily what Vance and Trump intend territorially – or even more.
(President) Zelensky will be fuming if this plan is implemented. He himself exercises his power without a legal basis because his term of office expired in May and he did not stand for re-election. How could he? He no longer has any popular support and the war is lost. He must fear not only for his power, but for his life. Anyone who believes that he will lead a sweet life in exile – for example in Miami – with his stolen billions does not have a clue about the Americans. The American plan in Ukraine has failed, so the US no longer needs this man in Kiev and the heavily cocaine-addicted Selenski knows too much. He will probably suffer the same fate as Ngo Dinh Diem, who was executed – probably on US orders – on November 2, 1963. Problem solved.
The typical end of an American puppet: Ngo Dinh Diem
Europe, especially Germany, will be furious. As a loyal vassal of US interests in Ukraine, Germany has ruined itself economically and socially and contributed to the destruction of Ukraine with its military and financial support. If Trump becomes president, he will abandon Germany and leave the bill for reconstruction on the table in Berlin.
However, the peace plan is not only a disaster for Selenski and Europe, but also for the deep state in the US. Trump realizes that the US cannot afford a war against Russia, not even financially, and he would accept another foreign policy and military defeat. The deep state does not. I explained why in my article “US Elections Decide War or Peace”. The aforementioned plan to dismember Russia would be set back decades or made completely impossible by a Trump-style peace. The fact that the Deep State is doing everything it can to prevent a Trump election was already evident in this week’s debate: the two ABC “journalists” who were supposed to conduct this debate neutrally were actually fighting for Kamala Harris, who has close ties to the head of ABC.
It is not clear who will win this election, but I suspect that Donald Trump’s life is in danger.
American pressure on BRICS countries
It is obvious that the U.S. is putting massive pressure on the BRCS countries – especially Brazil and India – to get Russia to negotiate. These countries, which do business with both the Global South and the Collective West, are trying to pass this pressure on to Russia.
China is also being pressured, with the result that payment transactions between Russia and China are currently being disrupted due to pressure on Chinese banks. China’s relationship with Russia is characterized by strong economic cooperation, but strategically – especially for the Chinese – it is military. China’s interest in a Russian victory over NATO in Ukraine is vital to the survival of the Middle Kingdom. As the declared main enemy of the U.S. in its struggle to maintain its hegemony, China will only be able to withstand this pressure as long as Russia is strong on its side. China’s chances of winning this battle – which will be fought over the next few generations – depend militarily on Russia. Although China has a very large army, which is constantly being expanded, and an impressive high-tech arsenal of weapons, China has no experience of war – in stark contrast to Russia. Andrei Martyanov convincingly argues that Russia today has the only armed force in the world that masters “combined warfare,” an indispensable prerequisite for winning a real military conflict. Real means against a serious enemy. This is precisely why Ukraine – even with the active help of NATO – has no chance against Russia.
Russia is certainly taking these calls from its BRICS partners seriously at the diplomatic level, but will not deviate from its strategy in any way.
Russia’s reactions to the Western escalation
The attack on the Kursk region has already had consequences, such as the destruction of the NATO-run training center in Poltava at the beginning of September. In this center, Ukrainian troops were trained by NATO officers for drone and missile attacks on Russia. According to my sources, around 720 soldiers were killed in this attack, including a large number of NATO instructors from Sweden, Germany, France and Poland. Not mercenaries, but NATO officers.
Large numbers of personnel were trained in Poltava to operate drones and for electronic reconnaissance. Sweden intended to sell two SAAB 340 AEW Erieye aircraft, a smaller version of the American AWACS aircraft.
SAAB 340 AEW Erieye
Sweden also trained personnel for this purpose in Poltava. The completely surprising resignation of the Swedish foreign minister the morning after the Russian attack should not surprise anyone.
An indication that this information is true are the movements of some huge Lockheed Martin K 130 aircraft, which in the Medvac version can transport 74 wounded. A large number of Medvac flights were carried out by Poland, Germany and Romania. This makes the claim that many NATO personnel were injured very credible.
Screenshot: Flight-Radar. 05. September 2024
President Putin comments on the use of long-range weapons against Russia on September 12
President Putin does not see the permission of the US and the UK to use Western long-range weapons against Russia as permission, but as a clear and direct entry of NATO countries into a war against Russia. He justifies this view with the fact that these attacks cannot be carried out by Ukraine without NATO support. On the one hand, Ukraine has no satellite reconnaissance of its own and, on the other, it does not have the personnel to provide technical support for the weapons systems.
President Putin’s conclusion verbatim:
If this decision is taken, it will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct involvement, and this, of course, significantly changes the essence, the nature of the conflict.
It means that the NATO countries, the United States and the European countries are at war with Russia. And if that is the case, then given the changed nature of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will arise for us.
These statements by President Putin are once again a brilliant move. They automatically provide him with a legal basis for an attack on any NATO member in the event that these long-range weapons are used. He doesn’t have to – but he can – at any time.
Conclusion
President Putin is well aware of the long-term U.S. strategy toward Russia: the dismemberment of Russia.
During his first 22 years in office, Putin tried to solve this problem diplomatically by refraining from the use of armed force until February 2022. On the one hand, this prolonged use of diplomatic means by Putin is hushed up by the West or interpreted as weakness. On the other hand, this angelic patience is sometimes blamed on him within his own ranks.
In the period up to 2022, Russia flourished thanks to an unprecedented economic and social policy that can only be compared to Germany’s postwar recovery after World War II, although the comparison is not entirely accurate: Germany was backed by huge resources, mainly from the US, to make its success possible. Russia did not have this privilege, but achieved it on its own, which makes Russia’s recovery since 2000 all the more impressive.
Putin’s strategy is a holistic, global chess game, balanced down to the last detail and based on such a stable foundation that even the biggest storm of sanctions ever initiated by the West not only failed to damage the Russian economy, but actually led to an economic upturn.
Militarily, Russia today has no opponents: the West has no strategy – neither geopolitical nor military – but uses propaganda as its main weapon and is embarrassing itself on the battlefield to such an extent that it would make you laugh if schadenfreude were appropriate – it’s not: countless people are dying as a result of these cynical games organized by a few sociopaths, and the media in the West are either bought or so stupid that you can’t laugh.
Russia is going to end this war and dictate the terms. What’s amazing is that according to Vice Presidential candidate Vance, a possible President Trump would come very close to the Kremlin’s terms. However, it’s anyone’s guess whether Trump will live to see the election, as the Deep State will do everything it can to keep the war ball in play; it can only succeed without Trump.
My guess is that the attacks on Russia with drones and missiles – including long-range missiles – will continue and intensify. Like the Kursk adventure, these actions will have no impact on the overall military situation. The situation on the main front is increasingly becoming a disaster for Ukraine: Russian territorial gains are developing rapidly, and Ukrainian losses are mounting as conscripted soldiers desert in increasing numbers. This has even been reported by CNN, another indication of the catastrophic situation in which Ukraine finds itself.
I do not rule out a Russian attack on a NATO base outside Ukraine – one should never do that – but I think it is unlikely at this point. However, if long-range attacks on Russia were to be staged from Poland or Romania, they would also be legally justified.
The Russians are known to react unconventionally, so American bases in the Middle East are obvious targets that the Russians could attack – this time through their proxies.
Let’s hope for some residual sanity in Western decision-making centers so that things don’t take a turn for the worst.
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