Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a battle for a key demographic that has been safely in the camp of the Democrats for more than a decade: Latinos.
The bloc, which is one of the fastest-growing voting demographics in the United States, has moved in favor of Republicans in recent cycles, with the economy its chief concern — an issue Trump has made a cornerstone of his campaign.
Democrats have won the lion’s share of Latino votes in every presidential election going back to Jimmy Carter, who won 82% of the vote in 1976. This has fluctuated over time, with Republicans seeing their highest vote share, at 44%, in 2004 during then-President George W. Bush’s reelection campaign.
Bush has been the only Republican nominee to break past the 40% threshold among Latinos in modern history. Now Trump could be on track to earn just below that, with some polling putting him exactly at the 40% benchmark. The 40% threshold for a Republican nominee is largely considered the mark of victory for the party when courting Latino voters, whereas Democrats have seen their high points with the demographic reach into the 70% range.
But with more than 36 million Latino voters eligible to vote in 2024, an increase from 32.3 million in 2020, the demographic’s shift is undeniable.
A survey conducted by UnidosUS released in September found the 2024 election will be the first presidential election in which 23% of Latinos will be voting in, with 37% of the voting bloc being new since the 2016 election between Trump and former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
“I think definitely younger Latinos, and particularly with older Latinos, there’s a lot more identification with the Democratic Party,” said Alfredo Estrada, the editor and publisher of LATINO Magazine. “You know, my parent’s generation, and Latinos in their 50s and 60s, they still remember Robert Kennedy. There’s a strong identification with the Democratic Party, going back several generations. Whereas I think younger Latinos don’t have that connection and are more independent.”
Clarissa Martinez De Castro, the vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS, echoed Estrada, saying that the “churn” being seen in national polling among Latino voters is because they are new voters.
“Because Latinos are a young electorate, that means that every cycle, you’re going to see a segment that is completely new,” Martinez De Castro said.
Trump has consistently built upon his support with the base since his first presidential campaign in 2016, when he won 28% support.
The former president’s gains are complicating Harris’s bid for the White House because she needs the support of the voting bloc to win crucial swing states such as Arizona and Nevada.
An NBC-Telemundo-CNBC poll released earlier this month found Harris holding 54% support among registered Latino voters compared to Trump’s 40%, with 6% reporting they wouldn’t vote or are unsure. The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll, if the numbers hold, puts Harris 11 points below President Joe Biden’s 2020 performance among Latinos.
Martinez De Castro explained that Trump’s gains with the voting bloc are actually more of a “return to the mean.”
“People tend to look at Latino voters and think that their voting pattern is similar to black voters. Black voters have been about 80/20 right in terms of party support. Among Latinos, the average has been more one-third, two-thirds, so that once it’s all said and done, you know, about two-thirds of the electorate of the Latino electorate support also on the Democratic side and one-third on the Republican side. In the last 10 years, the erosion on the Republican side going below the third and Democrat — that was a windfall for Democrats,” Martinez De Castro said.
She continued: “But Democrats didn’t solidify that to their column. So in the last couple of cycles, you’ve seen Republicans start to regain some of the ground they have lost, right to get back to their one-third and improving upon that.”
Economy and inflation top concerns for demographic
Contrary to popular belief, any idea that Latinos care the most about immigration is a “relic of the identity politics that Democrats allow themselves to be consumed by,” according to Republican operative Mike Madrid.
Madrid, who recently published The Latino Century, which details how to win over Latino voters, contends that economic concerns have always been a top concern.
“Over the past 20 years, there’s been no evidence to suggest that Latino voters are anything other than economic-issue voters,” Madrid said.
Martinez De Castro partially echoed Madrid, saying that “there have been a lot of misconceptions and mistaken assumptions about Latino voters.”
“Some of that also has to do with what issues they care about, right? So for a long time, if politicians even bothered to talk to this electorate, they had made the assumption that the only thing they cared about was immigration, which is wrong,” Martinez De Castro said. “And sometimes, when those they don’t see immigration in the top five, they assume that they don’t care at all about immigration, which is also wrong. But the thing that has always been true is that jobs and the economy have always been at the top for this electorate.”
The UnidosUS survey found Latino voters ranking inflation, the rising cost of living, jobs and the economy, high rents and the lack of affordable housing, and healthcare among their top issues. A subsequent study released by the Pew Research Center saw 85% of Latino voters saying the economy was very important to their November vote.
Harris’s struggles with Latino men
Despite Harris’s efforts to win over Latino voters, including through participating in a town hall hosted by Univision on Thursday, a clear portion of the demographic that Harris is underwater with is Latino men.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll found Harris lagging behind Trump in Arizona by 12 points among men ages 18-34 and 20 points among men ages 35-49. In Nevada, Harris is behind Trump by 13 points among men ages 18-34 and by 14 points for men ages 35-49.
Estrada said while it’s hard to know why exactly Harris is falling behind Trump among Latino men, he believes that “to some extent, particularly in a place like Texas, you’re often talking about third, fourth, fifth-generation Latinos, and to some extent, that’s no different from non-Latinos.”
Harris has made moves to stem the bleeding in recent weeks, with her campaign launching the “Hombres con Harris” initiative in October in an effort to persuade Latino men to vote for the vice president in November.
As part of the effort, Harris’s running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) is embarking on a tour with Latino leaders, such as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), to Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
“I don’t think it’s any particular to her. I think it’s just this longer-term trend that’s developing. We have to remember the trope about machismo culture and stuff like that. But if that was true, it’s kind of hard to argue why Hillary Clinton was doing better or why Barack Obama had the highest support levels. As Latinos become more Americanized, they do become more Trumpy, our men, they do become kind of more right-wing,” Madrid said.
Madrid went as far as to commend Harris’s recent housing plans, saying it “was very specific to Latino homebuyers” and “masterfully laid out in that direction.”
Among Harris’s housing plans was the proposal to give first-time homebuyers a $25,000 down-payment assistance.
Trump’s history with Latinos could put a ceiling on him
Martinez De Castro said the belief that the Latino vote is “up for grabs” is exaggerated.
However, she did acknowledge there’s “more of an opening” for Republicans to persuade more Latinos to support them, given the voting bloc’s concerns about the economy.
“Republicans have been able to build that perception of being strong in the economy. So when you have so many people concerned about the economy, that could, that could be an opening to engage with these voters. Because if you look at other issues, right, whether it is immigration, abortion, on several other things, definitely Republicans have the advantage on the economy,” Martinez De Castro said.
But she also pointed to the lack of outreach from both parties toward Latino voters, with only 30% reporting having been contacted by the Democratic Party and 24% by the Republican Party.
“I think step one is showing up, door knocking, mail, community events, having a presence locally, making sure, because candidates matter, their positions matter, meaningful outreach is essential to make sure that No. 1 and No. 2 are done,” Martinez De Castro said.
When all is set and done, Martinez De Castro said success for Harris would be how close she can get to 70% Latino support, whereas Trump would be looking toward the 40% mark.
Estrada also invoked the 40% mark, saying that the rule of thumb is “when a Republican starts getting over 40%, that’s trouble for Democrats.”
However, Trump’s rhetoric surrounding illegal immigration and migrants, which has made headlines since he launched his 2016 run, could stymie him.
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people,” Trump said during his 2016 campaign launch.
Trump’s approach to the border and immigrants sounded alarm bells for the Republican Party back in 2016 as it came after the Republican Party did an “autopsy” of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-UT) loss to Obama. The autopsy recommended the party take a more inclusive tone regarding immigration as a way to appeal to Latino voters.
At the time, Trump rebuked the report’s findings in a post to social media, asking if the RNC had a “death wish.”
“Donald Trump is hurting the Republican Party’s efforts with Latino voters,” Madrid said. “Every Republican winning is doing better than Trump is with Latinos, so Trump is not helping. Trump is hurting.”
Trump’s recent comment that illegal immigrants in the U.S. who have committed crimes have “bad genes” drew fierce backlash.
“I think it is for some people, but I think it’s important for all Latinos, you know, I don’t see how Latino voters can hear things that are outrageously anti-immigrant and have that not impact how they vote. That never ceases to amaze me. I mean, how Latinos can support an anti-immigrant agenda that is, you know, that, to me, is a mystery,” Estrada said.
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Despite Trump’s layered history with the demographic, Madrid attributed the former president’s success in winning over the demographic to the fact that Latino voters don’t “have the luxury of considering” it.
“It’s easy to just not pay attention to it, or I should say better to say that they prioritize things like paying the rent and feeding their kids more than they have the capacity or the luxury of worrying about politicians who’ve denigrated their community,” Madrid said.
Trump is scheduled to participate in a town hall hosted by Univision next week, which will likely be one of his final opportunities to court the voting bloc.
