Few recent developments in the 2024 White House race have been as swift and seemingly prophetical as a huge October swing toward Donald Trump in the crypto-based Polymarket online betting marketplace. From even odds at the start of the month, the odds of a Trump victory have surged to 60%, while the odds of Kamala Harris win have fallen to 40%.
Now, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the move is largely the work of just four accounts that have together plowed $30 million into bets on the former president. What's more, the timing of the four accounts' moves suggests they could be controlled by a single owner. Polymarket has engaged outside experts to scrutinize transactions in presidential election betting, an unnamed source told the Journal.
The four accounts have concentrated on bets that Trump will come out atop the electoral college count, but have also dabbled in side-wagers on individual state contests, as well as taking some flyers on Trump winning the popular vote. That's a long shot indeed, as Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 32% chance of doing that.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel tells the Journal:
The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.
In its report, the Journal worked to substantiate the notion that the concentrated bets represent some form of intentional narrative-control scheme, saying "[Trump's] surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts," a view embraced by crypto investor Adam Cochran, a self-described right-of-center Harris-backer.
They call it Polypoll or @Polymarket or something
— Smokey (@Smokey_titan) October 19, 2024
pic.twitter.com/ojeGMVMmPb
To its credit, however, the Journal also tapped Rutgers University stats professor Harry Crane, who noted that other betting markets also have Trump in the lead, and that big bettors routinely nudge all manner of market odds. "Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market,” he said.
Americans are officially barred from Polymarket, and a source "familiar with the matter" has assured Reuters that the four accounts behind the $30 million wave of bets are not owned by an American, a conclusion that rests on the firm's practice of certifying large traders to verify they aren't using VPNs to hide their origins.
As the Polymarket surge began in early October, Trump-backer Elon Musk publicized Trump's then-3% lead in the odds, describing betting markets as "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line." In addition to the 60% chance of a Trump victory, Polymarket now has the GOP with an 81% chance of taking over the Senate, but gives Democrats a 51% chance of controlling the House of Representatives.
Few recent developments in the 2024 White House race have been as swift and seemingly prophetical as a huge October swing toward Donald Trump in the crypto-based Polymarket online betting marketplace. From even odds at the start of the month, the odds of a Trump victory have surged to 60%, while the odds of Kamala Harris win have fallen to 40%.
Now, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the move is largely the work of just four accounts that have together plowed $30 million into bets on the former president. What’s more, the timing of the four accounts’ moves suggests they could be controlled by a single owner. Polymarket has engaged outside experts to scrutinize transactions in presidential election betting, an unnamed source told the Journal.
The four accounts have concentrated on bets that Trump will come out atop the electoral college count, but have also dabbled in side-wagers on individual state contests, as well as taking some flyers on Trump winning the popular vote. That’s a long shot indeed, as Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 32% chance of doing that.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel tells the Journal:
The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.
In its report, the Journal worked to substantiate the notion that the concentrated bets represent some form of intentional narrative-control scheme, saying “[Trump’s] surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts,” a view embraced by crypto investor Adam Cochran, a self-described right-of-center Harris-backer.
They call it Polypoll or @Polymarket or something
pic.twitter.com/ojeGMVMmPb— Smokey (@Smokey_titan) October 19, 2024
To its credit, however, the Journal also tapped Rutgers University stats professor Harry Crane, who noted that other betting markets also have Trump in the lead, and that big bettors routinely nudge all manner of market odds. “Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market,” he said.
Americans are officially barred from Polymarket, and a source “familiar with the matter” has assured Reuters that the four accounts behind the $30 million wave of bets are not owned by an American, a conclusion that rests on the firm’s practice of certifying large traders to verify they aren’t using VPNs to hide their origins.
As the Polymarket surge began in early October, Trump-backer Elon Musk publicized Trump’s then-3% lead in the odds, describing betting markets as “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” In addition to the 60% chance of a Trump victory, Polymarket now has the GOP with an 81% chance of taking over the Senate, but gives Democrats a 51% chance of controlling the House of Representatives.
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