Former President Donald Trump has quite a bit working against him as he seeks the presidency for a second term.
Rampant lawfare, biased media and a sudden change in chief political rival (Vice President Kamala Harris overtook the Democratic ticket from incumbent President Joe Biden in late July) have all presented their own unique challenges to Trump.
But there’s also plenty working in favor of the former president.
Twenty-four of the things working in favor of Trump were chronicled by noted pollster Nate Silver, who noted that the former president has erased Harris’ lead.
“Donald Trump has been gaining ground,” Silver assessed.
The prominent data guru took to his site and listed out 24 factors — “factors that have historically determined elections,” per Silver — favoring Trump in the lead-up to the Nov. 5 general election, and it’s a fascinating read if for only how apolitical all of the observations are.
The first factor Silver called out was the fact that while Harris is enjoying a slim lead in the popular vote, the far more meaningful electoral college vote does her no such favors. He noted that “Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points.”
The second factor involved the still-high inflation levels and how “sensitive” voters generally are to the issue of it.
The third factor piggybacked off of the second point and was basically Silver saying that while the data may show a recovering economy, consumers are not feeling it practically.
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Factors four and five were also related, as they had to do with how incumbents are generally doing poorly across global elections and the role that growing populism played in those elections.
Factor six was a familiar cry: illegal immigration and all the ways that the Biden-Harris administration has seen numbers surge under its watch.
Factor seven was how Harris doesn’t have enough time (or an inability) to explain why she has flip-flopped on a number of critical issues, such as fracking.
Factors eight, nine, ten and eleven all involved societal sentiment, as Silver noted that “cultural vibes” are shifting right, voters are waxing nostalgic for Trump’s presidency, and that Democrats are losing their once-dominating grip on black voters. Silver added that many young male voters, in particular, are feeling lost and drifting away from voting Democrat.
The twelfth factor called out that one of Harris’ best attacks against Trump — namely, attacking his age — is completely neutered because of her predecessor’s previous commitment to seeking re-election (Biden would’ve been 86 had he seen a second presidential term through).
Interestingly, the thirteenth factor was actually viewed as an advantage for Harris by some. Specifically, Silver said that Harris’ truncated presidential election season means that she has less time to fix any issues with her campaign. Many of Harris’ staunchest critics have actually argued that the shortened period of time benefits Harris, as she simply has less time to make errors.
Factor 14 noted that Harris was a woman (an apparent detriment to the voting bloc), and factor 15 noted that the highly polarized nature of the media makes it virtually impossible for any good faith criticism of Trump to rise above the static.
The sixteenth factor was a bit of a backhanded compliment, as Silver effectively stated that Trump was a good conman, which obviously would have its uses in a political election.
Factors 17 and 18 both continued the focus on Trump, as those two factors noted that the former president had been better at cultivating “weird” or oddball electorate groups, while concerns about the Jan. 6 Capital incursion continue to fall on deaf ears.
Factors 19 and 20 involved foreign relations, as Silver noted that the world has inarguably gotten more unstable under Biden’s regime. The data guru added that the Israel-Hamas conflict has also divided the Democratic voter base like very little before it.
Factors 21 and 22 involved powerful endorsements that Trump has gotten, including from heavyweight third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and tech mogul Elon Musk.
The final two factors were a bit more abstract.
First, Silver recounted how Trump has generally maximized the political potential of a failed assassination attempt, of which the president has survived two of recently. That’s one issue that Harris can literally do nothing about.
Finally, Silver called out Harris for mostly “running on vibes” and noting that she has “failed to articulate a clear vision for the country.”
Laid out in this fashion, it’s clear that both Harris and Trump have quite a bit of work cut out for them ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
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