Former President Donald Trump is looking beyond swing states in the last week of the campaign, predicting victory in Colorado and rallying in New Mexico and Virginia.
Trump lost all three of those states in both 2016 and 2020 and is trailing badly in each this time around according to public polls. But with his campaign riding an upswing of momentum, he’s talking about winning them all.
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“We’re leading by a lot in Nevada. We’re leading by a lot in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even states that are typically never in play,” Trump boasted during a campaign stop in Las Vegas last week. With those swing states covered, he added later, “We’re going to win the state of Colorado.”
But Trump is not just talking about winning safe blue states, he’ll be visiting them during the final week of the campaign. He hit New York’s famed Madison Square Garden last weekend, which was one of many stops he’s made in the deep blue Empire State this election cycle.
Trump previously campaigned in Colorado and is visiting New Mexico on Thursday and Virginia on Saturday, using some of his precious time in the final week to go to places where Vice President Kamala Harris has a considerable advantage.
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“We have a really good chance to win Virginia — hasn’t been won in decades by a [GOP] presidential candidate,” Trump said when he rallied in the state over the summer.
That’s true of all of the edge states Trump has in his sights. Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico haven’t gone red since 2004. New York last backed a Republican during Ronald Reagan’s 49-state landslide in 1984.
Trump points to two reasons Colorado voters would vote Republican: the border crisis that created an immigrant gang problem in Aurora and efforts by the Democratic-run state to kick Trump off the ballot earlier this year citing the 14th Amendment. The Supreme Court ruled in Trump’s favor in March.
“Colorado is going to vote for us and you know why,” Trump said Sunday, “because they tried to throw the leading candidate of both parties … off the ballot, and the people of Colorado, including Democrats, are very angry about it.”
Trump is certainly projecting confidence by entering blue territory so close to Election Day, even if there’s a risk of such a strategy backfiring if the faithful stay home.
But there may be other motivations for each of his stops in the non-swing states.
Trump is a New York native who still has a lot of warmth and affection for his hometown and its famed arena. He visited Colorado in part to highlight the apartment buildings in suburban Denver that were reportedly taken over members of the Tren de Aragua gang. Trump is going to New Mexico in part to boost the Republican in the state’s competitive 2nd Congressional District.
GOP candidate Yvette Herrell held the seat in 2021 and 2022, then lost it to Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-MN) in the midterm elections. It’s a hugely competitive race in a border district that Republicans hope to get back in their corner.
Trump may need Herrell to win in order to preserve the GOP’s House majority, which he would need in order to implement many of his policy preferences. Democrats fear that a GOP House majority could also help Trump challenge the election results if he loses, something House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has repeatedly denied.
Democratic strategist Michael Stratton is helping his party campaign in New Mexico. He predicted Harris would win the state but says Trump is probably hoping to get low-propensity voters to turn out in the Herrell/Vasquez race.
“What they’re trying to do is get the soft Trump voters out there who like the guy but may not show up,” he said. “They’re just going after lazy Republicans.”
There’s some early evidence the play is working. Republicans have outpaced Democrats in early voting in New Mexico.
Stratton also works frequently in Colorado and says Trump’s presence in that state is all about juicing the illegal immigration issue.
“It was all about the gangs,” he said of Trump’s appearance. “He has no chance to win in Colorado.”
Virginia may be Trump’s best chance for a pickup among the four. He was actually leading in the state before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, has gotten within 1 point of Harris in recent polls, and has the support of popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).
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If Trump wins the Old Dominion he is very likely to win the election.
As such, Trump is putting more resources into his appearance there, which will come in the Roanoke area on Saturday. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Lara Trump are scheduled to attend as well.
The team will also hope to boost Republicans in competitive Virginia House districts along with GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao.
Yet Virginia too has an issues element that extends beyond the state’s borders. State elected officials are attempting to remove 1,600 alleged noncitizens from voting rolls and are mired in court battles with Biden’s Department of Justice over the issue.
Trump has called lower court rulings in the DOJ’s favor a “totally unacceptable travesty” and said he hopes the U.S. Supreme Court will “fix it.”
For Trump, spending any time outside of the seven swing states is a risk. Former George W. Bush advisor Karl Rove said during a Zoom event last week that Trump should spend “every moment” in the battlegrounds in order to maximize the impact of his resources as he seeks a return to the White House.
But Trump, riding a wave of polling momentum, is feeling confident enough to venture out into blue territory.
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At the Madison Square Garden rally this weekend in New York City, Trump and his allies sought to create an aura of inevitability and evoked Reagan’s 1984 landslide.
“Donald Trump likes to go where nobody expects him. Anybody hear about a little rally up the street in the Bronx?” said Lara Trump, the Republican National Committee co-chair, referring to her father-in-law’s May rally in another borough. “Does anybody know the last time a Republican president campaigned in the Bronx, it was Ronald Reagan, and ladies and gentlemen, he turned New York red. I’m just saying.”
