Senate Republicans could have as large as a 54-seat majority after President-elect Donald Trump‘s decisive performance at the top of the ticket aided the party’s emphasis on candidate quality.
Republicans won seats that were widely expected to flip, including a noncompetitive race in West Virginia and one that began to drift in GOP candidate Tim Sheehy’s favor in red Montana. But the degree of success surprised even seasoned operatives.
Republican Bernie Moreno ousted Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio, far from a guarantee given his blue-collar appeal, and the party still has a chance of picking up additional seats in Pennsylvania and Nevada, with those races too close to call.
Elsewhere, Republicans came close, with narrow losses in Michigan and Wisconsin.
“I think you could say many of us were watching the results coming in, and they were even better than anyone expected,” a Republican strategist said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect candidly on the situation.
“Many of us thought we’d flip a maximum of two seats, three if we were lucky, given how many experienced incumbents we were facing who had become synonymous with their states,” the strategist added.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee switched up its game plan, wading into GOP primaries after declining to do so in 2022. The strategy helped avoid costly primaries and advanced candidates who Republicans perceived to be their strongest bet of winning in the general election.
On election night, Trump’s sweep of the battleground states gave those candidates coattails, putting their battleground races in close contention. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) congratulated Trump on Wednesday, declaring that “what he has accomplished has not been done since Grover Cleveland.”
“A lot of the credit goes to Donald Trump. We had an idea Sheehy would win, but it really helped Moreno in Ohio by a decent-sized margin,” said Brian Walsh, a Republican strategist who formerly worked as a GOP Senate leadership aide. “I think we could see the same result in Pennsylvania, too.”
Senate Republicans always knew they had a favorable map this cycle. They only had to defend GOP-held seats in Florida and Texas, with the rest of the competitive seats represented by Democrats.
But the Senate GOP campaign arm, under the leadership of Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), made it clear early that the committee would be more than willing to take sides in GOP primaries, a departure from 2022, when candidates who were perceived as flawed won their primaries and then lost in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia.
In aggregate, Senate Republicans lost one seat in what was expected to be a “red wave” year.
“The NRSC recruited great candidates and were able to avoid really tough and divisive primaries, so that was a big win this cycle,” Walsh said of this year’s efforts.
National Republicans discouraged former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels from running against Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) for Sen. Mike Braun’s (R-IN) open seat. In Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) ended his Senate bid less than a week after announcing a run, claiming he did not have a path forward after Trump endorsed Sheehy.
In Pennsylvania, David McCormick, the former hedge fund executive, launched his bid with an open field after Doug Mastriano, a failed gubernatorial candidate who denied the 2020 election results, considered running but passed on a Senate bid.
Behind the scenes, Daines was credited with the outcome through an alliance he had forged with Trump.
The president-elect endorsed in select races, but equally as important was his decision to largely avoid putting a thumb on the scale in the NRSC primary process. Walsh pointed out that Chris LaCivita, who became Trump’s campaign manager, had experience as political director at the NRSC.
“[Chris] understood the important role the committee plays, and he also saw firsthand how bad candidates cost Republicans in previous election cycles,” Walsh said. “Having him there to help make the former president, now president-elect, make the best decisions about where and where not to engage — I think was tremendously beneficial.”
A defining moment in the 2024 cycle came when McConnell made a secret trip to West Virginia to try to recruit Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) to run against Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), a move that was unknown to even some of the Kentucky senator’s closest allies, including the president and CEO of his aligned super PAC.
“Their conversations were kept unknown even to me. I didn’t know about it because McConnell didn’t want to put out there that he was talking to Justice, and if Justice were to decline, it would look like a lost opportunity,” said Steven Law, Senate Leadership Fund president and CEO in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
Justice coasted to victory in his state’s open race, giving Republicans a major victory without having to spend money or resources in West Virginia. Daines worked to court Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Bridger Aerospace CEO, to take on longtime incumbent Tester in his home state.
The committee had remained neutral in the Ohio Senate race but endorsed Moreno after the primary.
Those races were always expected to favor Republicans, given the states have trended further right in recent years. But national Republicans also saw promise in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Both races have yet to be called, but McCormick, who is challenging the family name of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) with his candidacy, is leading by a slim margin. In Nevada, Sam Brown, a combat veteran challenging first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), is 1 point behind.
“The Democratic opponent was a very well-established incumbent with his 60-year family name brand in Pennsylvania politics. This was going to be a very tough assignment,” Law said of Casey, whose father served as governor of Pennsylvania.
“Only within the last month did we start to see that gap close up significantly,” Law said of McCormick, calling his campaign “relentless.” “It was a battle by the inches, not by yards, and I think he looks like he’s going to win.”
SLF decided to spend last-minute resources in Nevada in the final two weeks as the environment improved for Brown, due in part to encouraging Republican turnout for early voting. Law said they started paying closer attention as they saw Democrats pouring more money and resources into Nevada.
“It made us think there’s something going on here. When we finally got a poll in early October that showed Brown leading by a significant margin, we thought it made sense for us to invest there,” he said.
“I will say that it surprised me in terms of the closeness of the Nevada race,” he added.
“We played in Nevada Senate races five times. We won one of those five. So, we’ve been skeptical about Nevada. We thought the Democrat incumbent was nothing special, but she had a blandly positive image. Sam Brown had a tough time getting momentum early on but has closed it up.”
Daines refused to project winning more than a 51-seat majority in the Senate publicly. As the numbers began rolling in on Tuesday, many had not considered just how strong their majority could be.
“With the sort of game Chairman Daines was pitching, Republicans always knew a big night was possible even if they couldn’t bring themselves to risk jinxing it by saying it out loud,” said John Ashbrook, a Republican strategist who used to work as an aide to McConnell.
Democrats knew they faced an uphill battle in holding their slim 51-49 Senate majority, but many pointed to the Pennsylvania race, which is too close to call, as the major shocker.
“Though insiders had said there were concerns about the party’s organization, Democrats did so well there, only two years ago electing Josh Shapiro [as governor] by 15 points,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist. “So, a collapse in Pennsylvania, while it was expected to be tight, is just a massive reckoning for the party and should be.”
Nonetheless, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also expressed confidence that its candidates would win the outstanding races.
“When this process of counting the votes concludes, Democrats will have won races in multiple states carried by Trump and successfully limited the GOP’s potential gains on their historically favorable map,” said David Bergstein, communications director.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) highlighted that Senate Democrats remained committed to working with Republicans while they still have control of the upper chamber for the next couple of months.
“As we await the final tallies in elections across the country, Senate Democrats remain committed to our values and to working with our Republican colleagues to deliver for the American people,” Schumer said in a statement.
“As I’ve said time and again, in both the majority and the minority, the only way to get things done in the Senate is through bipartisan legislation while maintaining our principles — and the next two years will be no different,” he added.
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McConnell, who took a victory lap on Wednesday, reflected on the success of the cycle, pointing to “candidate quality.” As he prepares to step aside as the GOP leader, he said he feels relieved that the party is in control of the upper chamber and will keep “guardrails” such as the filibuster in place.
“One of the most gratifying results of the Senate becoming Republican, the filibuster will stand. There won’t be any new states admitted to give a partisan advantage to the other side, and we’ll quit beating up the Supreme Court every time we don’t like the decision they make,” McConnell said.
