President-elect Donald Trump and his Republican allies took a gamble by spending millions of dollars to attract infrequent voters — and data show the effort paid off in Arizona.
The small but significant win could reshape how Republicans tailor their campaigns to key voting blocs.
Conservative organization Turning Point Action’s effort “Chase the Vote” involved tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of paid staffers whose jobs were to cultivate relationships with Arizonans they believed were friendly to Republicans and Trump. And the risk was worth it in the Grand Canyon State, at least.
Data from TargetSmart, a Democratic polling firm, showed that Republicans had the advantage in turning out infrequent voters in Arizona. Around 30,000 registered Republicans who had not voted since at least 2018 cast a ballot, compared to Democrats who turned out 20,000 of the same voters, according to the New York Times.
Republicans also held an edge over Democrats among voters who skipped the 2022 midterm elections, during which the GOP’s expected red wave significantly missed the mark, but voted in other recent elections. The GOP turned out 185,000 of those voters compared to Democrats turning out 157,000.
Turning Point developed the “Chase the Vote” program after the GOP’s less-than-desired 2022 midterm results. Republicans experienced significant losses due to both the lack of a presidential candidate at the top of the ticket and substandard candidates who beat out more centrist GOP challengers to later lose to a Democrat.
The idea to target infrequent voters was one of several unorthodox approaches taken by Trump and his allies as he sought to defeat President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris. Groups such as Turning Point Action and America PAC, funded by businessman-turned-proxy-politician Elon Musk, shared and received data from the Republican National Committee and Trump’s campaign.
The coordinated canvassing groups carried out similar efforts across the handful of battleground states this year, but Turning Point had the largest effect in Arizona. The group built a list of nearly 400,000 infrequent voters, with rural areas considered a prime pickup opportunity. Densely populated areas that leaned red were also a focal point, including Arizona’s East Valley that encompasses Mesa and areas south of Phoenix.
Trump won the Grand Canyon State by 187,000 votes. Though the wide margin cannot be attributed to one singular voting bloc, it does support theories held by both parties that the election would come down to a handful of swing voters in each state.
However, Turning Point pushed a different theory: that Trump could devote his energy to first-time or infrequent voters who leaned Republican instead of trying to attract true independent voters or centrist Democrats.
“Arizona is what we threw the kitchen sink at,” Turning Point chief operating officer Tyler Bowyer told the New York Times. “We weren’t focused on door knocks and door-hangers hung and things like that. Those are kind of filler stats. We were more focused on relationships built. So when you’re focused on relationships built, you actually know who that person is, something about them, what makes them tick, what moves them.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Some Republican strategists have not been completely sold on Turning Point’s efforts and findings, noting that “Chase the Vote” did not have as much an effect in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan — two places where Trump won the state but Republicans lost key Senate races. Data on low-propensity voter turnout is not available in those states as of now.
Turning Point spokesman Andrew Kolvet told the outlet there was an initial plan for a statewide effort similar to Arizona’s in Michigan, but the outfit ultimately decided to focus solely on Michigan’s 7th Congressional District. The swing district was left vacant by Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who won the state’s open Senate seat, and flipped to GOP control, which Turning Point attributes to its effort to get 16,000 more voters out.
