For the first time since June 2024, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI broke above 50 (expansion) in final January data (rising from 49.4 in Dec to 50.1 flash PMI for Jan to 51.2 final).
The ISM Manufacturing print for January also beat expectations, rising to 50.9 (into expansion for the first time since Sept 2022), better than the 49,.9 exp and the 49.2 prior.
Source: Bloomberg
All the underlying components for the ISM rose with Prices Paid at their highest since May 2024, New Orders highest since May 2022, and Employmenmt back into expansion for the first time since May 2024...
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, sees the 'Trump Effect' playing a major role:
“A new year and a new President has brought new optimism in the US manufacturing sector.
Business confidence about prospects for the year ahead has leaped to the highest for nearly three years after one of the largest monthly gains yet recorded by the survey.
Over the past decade, only two months during the reopening of the economy from pandemic lockdowns have seen business sentiment improve as markedly as recorded in January.
As Bidenomics fades into oblivion:
“Manufacturers report that political uncertainty has cleared and the pro-business approach from the new administration has brightened their prospects.
Production has already improved after falling throughout much of the last half of 2024, amid rising domestic sales.
Factories have also stepped up their hiring to meet planned growth of production capacity.
However,
“...a rise in the rate of increase of both input costs and selling prices could become a concern if this intensification of inflationary pressures is sustained in the coming months, especially as the combination of higher price pressures alongside accelerating economic growth and rising employment is not typically conducive to cutting interest rates.”
We shall see...
For the first time since June 2024, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI broke above 50 (expansion) in final January data (rising from 49.4 in Dec to 50.1 flash PMI for Jan to 51.2 final).
The ISM Manufacturing print for January also beat expectations, rising to 50.9 (into expansion for the first time since Sept 2022), better than the 49,.9 exp and the 49.2 prior.
Source: Bloomberg
All the underlying components for the ISM rose with Prices Paid at their highest since May 2024, New Orders highest since May 2022, and Employmenmt back into expansion for the first time since May 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, sees the ‘Trump Effect’ playing a major role:
“A new year and a new President has brought new optimism in the US manufacturing sector.
Business confidence about prospects for the year ahead has leaped to the highest for nearly three years after one of the largest monthly gains yet recorded by the survey.
Over the past decade, only two months during the reopening of the economy from pandemic lockdowns have seen business sentiment improve as markedly as recorded in January.
As Bidenomics fades into oblivion:
“Manufacturers report that political uncertainty has cleared and the pro-business approach from the new administration has brightened their prospects.
Production has already improved after falling throughout much of the last half of 2024, amid rising domestic sales.
Factories have also stepped up their hiring to meet planned growth of production capacity.
However,
“…a rise in the rate of increase of both input costs and selling prices could become a concern if this intensification of inflationary pressures is sustained in the coming months, especially as the combination of higher price pressures alongside accelerating economic growth and rising employment is not typically conducive to cutting interest rates.”
We shall see…
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