EXCLUSIVE — Fresh off a slate of national wins in 2024, Virginia Republicans are already setting their sights on 2025 as their chance to flip the state House with a new ad targeting Democrats’ “broken” promises.
The Republican State Leadership Committee PAC and the Virginia House Republican Campaign Committee are releasing a six-figure digital ad highlighting Democrats’ agenda for the new legislative season ahead of a contentious 2025 election cycle where the state House seats and the governor’s mansion are on the ballot.
The ad, “They Say They Care,” shared exclusively with the Washington Examiner, touches on Virginia House Democrats’ efforts to block tax cuts and efforts to lower electric costs, as well as their response to illegal immigration — taking a page from national Republicans’ playbook after their gains in the Senate and White House win by campaigning heavily on the economy and the border crisis.
Republicans are hoping those matters will still be at the top of voters’ minds heading into the 2025 elections, where only a handful of states will serve as the first judgment of the national GOP trifecta. How a Republican agenda influences the state races will be a key indicator for the 2026 midterm elections — particularly in Virginia’s state House, which has been held by Democrats since 2023 when they flipped the chamber and retained the state Senate.
“Virginia House Democrats have said they want to cut taxes, make their communities safer, and make the Commonwealth more prosperous, yet this legislative session under their leadership has been one broken promise after the next,” RSLC PAC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón said in a statement. “The time for talk is over, and Virginians deserve better than to be lied to by the out-of-touch liberals running Richmond, who would rather protect violent criminals and increase taxes while Virginians are still struggling to pay their bills.”
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In the ad, the RSLC and Virginia HRCC tie state Democrats to their “out-of-touch allies in Washington” — another sign Republicans will message heavily on national Democrats’ sweeping defeats in the 2024 election after working-class voters and historically blue voting blocs turned in droves to President Donald Trump. Democrats have since been on shifting sands, with new leaders and current lawmakers arguing it is time to bring back populist views to the party.
“They say they want to lower our costs, then fight against lowering electric bills and block tax cuts,” the GOP ad states. “They say they want safer communities, Then side with illegal immigrants who have committed crimes in our communities. Virginia Democrats say they care, but their actions tell us the truth.”
State House Republican Leader Todd Gilbert said in a statement that politicians “love to talk,” but Virginians care about “what they do.”
“Republicans have concrete, actionable plans to lower your power bills, cut your taxes, and make your neighborhoods safer,” Gilbert said. “Our House Republican Caucus wants to put more money back in your pocket, ensure that parents are in charge of their children, and make sure the future looks brighter for us all. But we need more Republicans in the House to make that happen.”
Virginia House Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the Virginia House compared to Republicans’ 49 seats. Democrats held on to a trifecta in 2021 after the 2020 elections, but the governor’s mansion flipped red with Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) win in 2021.
With Youngkin termed out after this year, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is running to replace him. GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is running for the Republican nomination, and both women are the only declared candidates for their parties for the 2025 election.
A survey from Emerson College Polling/the Hill found Spanberger narrowly leading Earle-Sears, 42% to 41%. The poll found Spanberger, who has experience representing a swing district from 2019 to 2025, leading with women, older voters over 70, and younger voters under 30. Earle-Sears is leading among male voters and white voters.
Though Republicans are hoping momentum from Trump’s win in 2024 will help them flip legislative seats and keep the governor’s mansion, his administration’s aggressive push to cut government jobs could severely affect the race for Virginia’s new governor.
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Virginia is home to nearly 145,000 federal employees and thousands of government contractors, so voters may be looking to who has the most powerful pro-worker, pro-union messaging — a campaign platform historically championed by Democrats but fell flat after several unions failed to endorse either Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Washington Examiner reached out to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee for comment.
