Canada‘s Liberal Party will select a new leader to replace Justin Trudeau on Sunday night, with that candidate likely to become the next prime minister of Canada, who will have to face the latest sovereignty and tariff threats from the Trump administration.
Trudeau, who served a decade as prime minister and 12 years as leader of the Liberals, announced in January he would resign from office. His departure from leadership opened up a competitive race between the top two candidates: Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland.
Both have insisted they are capable of standing up to President Donald Trump, who has spent his first six weeks threatening as much as 25% tariffs against countries such as Canada and Mexico as an incentive to work with the United States on stopping the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl across the borders.
Carney, 59, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Previously, he served as a senior official in the country’s Finance Department under successive Liberal and Conservative governments.
A more establishment candidate, Carney has centered much of his campaign on the economy, as the high cost of living has become a top concern for Canadians due to inflation and low productivity. He’s promised to remove Trudeau’s carbon tax and replace it with a pricing system that would require industrial polluters to pay consumers to reduce carbon footprints.
Freeland, 56, is the former finance minister and former foreign minister. She has a successful background in international journalism but has been a staple in Canadian politics for the past decade. Her previous ministry roles are being scrutinized during the election, with detractors arguing she did not stand up to Trudeau when his policies were viewed as unpopular.
It was Freeland’s resignation from the Cabinet of Canada in December that prompted Trudeau’s own decision to step down. She cited differences with Trudeau over how to deal with Trump’s tariffs threats in her resignation letter.
Freeland has worked to establish herself as the grassroots candidate and said she is the best person to stand up to Trump, particularly about the president‘s calls for Canada to become the U.S.’s 51st state. While the sovereignty challenge has been mostly considered bluster, some of Trump’s right-flank allies in Congress have signaled their support.
If Freeland were to become the new prime minister, she’d already be starting off on the wrong foot with the president — he’s called her “toxic,” “a whack,” and “incompetent” in recent months. Her priorities include tackling the country’s physician shortage, increasing military spending, and countering foreign interference in politics.
The latter campaign policy is particularly timely, as it comes after Trudeau’s government was found to be “insufficiently transparent” about foreign interference and sometimes took “too long to act” against attempts from China and India to meddle in elections. A commission released its final report of an 18-month investigation in January, which encouraged stricter rules for political parties and third-party financing.
Both Carney and Freeland have been political successes in their own ways. Freeland successfully renegotiated the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement during Trump’s first term. Carney helped Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and steered Britain during Brexit.
Liberal Party members began voting online for their new leader on Feb. 26, using a ranked-choice voting system. The process has been scrutinized in both Canada and the United States, with Canadians worried about technical glitches in the identity verification process. Results are expected around 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
What happens after the leader is selected depends on the victorious candidate. Carney, who is unelected, would call for federal elections soon after being named prime minister, his campaign indicated to the New York Times. Freeland told the outlet said she’d weigh the choices of whether to hold a quick election given the continual threat of tariffs from Trump.
TRUMP TURNS CANADIAN ELECTIONS UPSIDE DOWN
Per the country’s laws, federal elections must be held by October. Polling showed the Conservatives were up 20 to 30 points earlier this year, but polls published in early March and late February showed the race narrowing to a toss-up. An Ipsos poll last week showed Liberals with their first election lead since 2021, with 38% support compared to 36% for Conservatives — a 4-point swing from the last Ipsos poll released two weeks prior.
Surveys show that most respondents would choose Carney over Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party; voters would also select Freeland over the Conservative leader, though by a narrower margin. Polls also indicate voters would prefer both Carney and Freeland to negotiate with Trump over Poilievre.
