Senate Democrats are facing a flurry of retirements in key states next year, turning up the heat on already competitive races against the backdrop of an unforgiving election map heavily favoring Republicans to retain control.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) was the latest to reveal Wednesday that she would not seek reelection in the 2026 midterm elections, an announcement that came on the heels of similar ones from Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN).
All three are longtime politicians from perennial Senate battlegrounds, making their open seats more difficult to defend as Republicans look to expand their 53-47 majority.
Democrats spun the retirements by saying the exodus foreshadows a strong off-year election to combat President Donald Trump and a chance for fresh voices in a party struggling with leadership and messaging.
“This is probably going to be a good year for Democrats and might not be as big a risk to have an open seat,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), a leading anti-Trump messenger. “I think what it probably means is that there’s life after politics and that you don’t have to die in office.”
Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who now chairs Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, sees an opportune moment for unity and winning over disgruntled centrist voters.
“This is a chance to invigorate Democrats, who are pretty beaten down right now,” Reinish said. “I think this is a chance to rally Dems and engage independents and even what will probably be by 2026 some disaffected just-right-of-center Republicans.”
The odds for Democrats to flip the chamber are bleak, but they could chip away at Republicans’ three-seat majority. Democrats could flip all three competitive GOP seats this cycle — Sens. Jon Hustead (R-OH), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Susan Collins (R-ME) — and still not take the majority with another 50-50 split and Vice President JD Vance as a tiebreaker.
Seeking another term likely means at least several more years of being in the minority, the one thing that lawmakers unanimously agree is far less enticing than being in the majority.
“Another one!” Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, said in a statement reacting to Shaheen’s retirement. “New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans — and will do so again in 2026!”
Democrats have a slight edge with Shaheen’s seat, according to nonpartisan election forecasters. But successors on both sides of the aisle are already preparing to line up.
Chris Sununu is eyeing a bid, the former New Hampshire Republican governor who would present perhaps the most formidable challenge to Democrats. Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator who lost to Shaheen in 2014, has also expressed openness.
Shaheen, 78, said in a video statement that it was “just time” for her to retire after her third term concludes in early 2027.
“It’s personal. I’ve been thinking about it for a long time,” Shaheen, a former state senator and governor, later told reporters at the Capitol. “I’ve been in politics for 50 years. I’ve been in elected office — it will be 30 years at the end of this term. I think it’s time to think about what else I might want to do with the rest of my life.”
Swing-district Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is among the possible Democratic contenders, along with first-term Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) and former Rep. Annie Kuster.
Shaheen signaled she would not make an endorsement in the primary but expressed confidence in Democrats’ ability to defend her open seat “given how people are feeling about Donald Trump’s leadership.”
Peters, 66, is in his second term and announced his decision not to seek reelection in January. Smith, 67, won a special election in 2018 and was elected to her first full term in 2020. She announced her retirement last month.
Peters’ seat is rated a toss-up. Smith’s is projected to stay blue but is still among those Republicans hope to flip, as well as Georgia. Democrats are aiming to unseat Collins, Husted, and Tillis.
In the presidential battleground of Michigan, Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) beat her Republican opponent in an open election last fall despite Trump carrying the state.
In three other battlegrounds carried by Trump — Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin — Democratic Senate candidates triumphed over GOP rivals. Vice President Kamala Harris won Minnesota and New Hampshire, but Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) was also elected in November.
SENATE DEMOCRATS SEE HOPE FOR MIDTERMS WITH 2024 DOWNBALLOT RESULTS
The results, taken together, buoy Democrats’ hopes for a strong Senate performance in 2026.
“The map itself, especially with the three retirements, is not favorable for Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “However, the thing to consider, and we don’t know the answer to this yet, is if Trump’s popularity continues to decline.”
