Futures jumped overnight after China revealed its latest massive stimulus (which however is still woefully insufficient to prop up the country's crashing housing sector) steadied nerves in the anxious wait for Jerome Powell's key speech at 8am tomorrow, where the only question is will it be even more hawkish than the market expects, or will it meet expectations, and send dollar and yields tumbling and stocks soaring.
Shortly after 2am ET, China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that analysts quickly agreed won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump. The State Council, China’s Cabinet, outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday, including another 300 billion yuan that state policy banks can invest in infrastructure projects, on top of 300 billion yuan already announced at the end of June. Local governments will be allocated 500 billion yuan of special bonds from previously unused quotas. However, as has been the case for the past 2 years with Beijing's drip-drip stimulus, economists were downbeat on the measures, while financial markets were muted. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 2 basis points to 2.65%. China’s CSI 300 Index of stocks rose as much as 0.6% before paring gains to trade up 0.3% as of 2:28 p.m. local time. A similar reaction was observed in US futures which initially spiked by nearly 30 points, reaching a high of 4187.5 before fading most of the gains; emini futures traded +0.6%, or 25 points higher, at 7:30am ET, while Nasdaq futures were up 0.85%. Emerging-market stocks also rallied the most in two weeks on the Chinese stimulus news, only to see gains fade. Treasury yields and a dollar gauge dipped, while the crypto space rose on China's stimulus.
The Chinese-inspired gains failed to stick as traders expect markets to remain volatile as they look to Powell’s comments due Friday at the Jackson Hole meeting for clues on the pace of US monetary tightening. Fed officials in the run-up to Jackson Hole have been clear they see more monetary tightening ahead, a message that’s eroded a bounce in stocks and bonds from mid-June troughs. The tension in markets is whether those assets will continue to head back toward the lows of the year.
“Powell is likely to push back on premature expectations of a dovish pivot, reiterating the focus on the fight against high inflation,” said Silvia Dall’Angelo, a senior economist at Federated Hermes Ltd. “Whether markets take him seriously amid an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy is yet to be seen.”
In premarket trading, Chinese stocks in the US rallied amid recent positivity over Beijing boosting stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan of funding, and as the country takes measures to shore up its currency. Tesla shares rose 2% as the electric-vehicle maker’s 3-for-1 stock split takes effect, confirming US markets remain dominated by idiots. Snowflake shares soared ~17% in premarket trading after the infrastructure software company reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for product revenue. On the other end, Nvidia shares slide ~4% in premarket trading after the chipmaker, which preannounced a month ago and gave a dire forecast, did it again and gave a third- quarter revenue forecast that was below expectations as demand for chips used in gaming computers slipped. Other notable premarket movers:
- Salesforce (CRM US) shares are down 6.6% in premarket trading after the application- software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations but lowered its full-year forecast. Analysts note that the company’s forecast is being hit by FX headwinds and delays in closing large deals.
- Teladoc Health (TDOC US) shares climb 5% in premarket trading after Amazon says it will close its primary care and telehealth service by the end of the year.
- Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares rose as much as 6% in US premarket trading before turning lower. The fluctuation follows a report that the home furnishings retailer is nearing a $375 million loan deal with Sixth Street Partners.
- Kinetik (KNTK US) initiated with an equal-weight recommendation and Street-high price target at Morgan Stanley, which says the midstream services company offers an “attractively positioned set of Permian midstream assets run by a growth-oriented management team.”
- NetApp (NTAP US) shares were up ~4% in extended trading after the computer hardware company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and affirmed its forecast. Analysts note the company continues to see broad-based demand strength, despite supply challenges and FX headwinds.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, paring an earlier advance amid mixed economic data from the region’s biggest economy. Energy and basic resources stocks were the biggest gainers, with retailers underperforming. Sovereign bonds across Europe gained led by short-end bonds. IBEX outperforms, adding 0.6%, FTSE MIB lags, adding 0.1%. In fixed income, short-end bonds lead the move. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- Harbour Energy shares jump as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, as analysts applaud an increased buyback and strong cash flows. Jefferies says 1H results “beat on all metrics”
- Ambu rises as much as 11% on its latest earnings, which were in-line with figures released on Aug. 3. Handelsbanken sees a “no drama” report and DNB highlights a positive free cash flow
- Rentokil gains as much as 2.7% after JPMorgan put the pest control company on a positive catalyst watch as the closing date for the Terminix acquisition nears
- Hunting rises as much as 19% after the company posted better-than-expected profitability, while the outlook for the rest of 2022 and 2023 is positive
- Yara gains as much as 2.8% as Citi flags rising demand for fertilizers. Yara earlier said it would cut production, citing record gas prices
- Tessenderlo climbs as much as 8.1% to a level last seen in April after the Belgian chemicals company raised annual guidance again and said it sees adjusted Ebitda for the year rising 15% to 20%
- Komax rises as much as 5% after Credit Suisse raises the wire processing machines maker to outperform, seeing its recent merger with Schleuniger as highly- accretive
- Elekta falls as much as 11% after the firm presented its latest earnings. Jefferies noted a “disappointing” drop in order intake, while Handelsbanken flags a soft outlook
- Baloise drops as much as 7.6%, hitting the lowest since March, after the Swiss financial services firm reported solid, “yet unspectacular” results, according to Vontobel
- Daetwyler falls as much as 6.3%, the most since May, as Credit Suisse cut its price target on the rubber components and seals maker following its results in the prior session
- Grafton declines as much as 5.4% after reporting 1H profit that missed expectations. The company said the weakness was due to hot weather in the UK and less construction activity
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded strongly after a five-day loss to head for their biggest advance since the end of May, boosted by a late surge in Hong Kong shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.6% late in the Asian day, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent being the biggest contributors to its gain. The gauge’s increase earlier in the session was driven by export-heavy markets like Korea and Taiwan as the dollar weakened. The Hang Seng Index surged 3.6%, the most since April 29, leading the late regional rebound that some traders attributed to short-covering ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference. The morning trading session in Hong Kong was suspended due to a tropical storm warning. The amount of bearish bets against Hong Kong stocks rose to levels that could trigger a surge in share prices as traders rush to close out their positions, according to quantitative analysts at Morgan Stanley. A gauge of Chinese tech names listed in the financial hub soared 6%. It is still down about 25% this year. Markets have been edgy ahead of Powell’s speech, with the MSCI Asia gauge losing 3.1% in the last five sessions.
Thursday’s move looks like “pre-positioning,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are taking positions on expectations” of a less hawkish commentary from Powell, he said. Chinese stocks on the mainland also rose as the nation stepped up measures to bolster growth with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of stimulus. South Korean shares gained on foreign buying even after the nation’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, while Taiwanese stocks also climbed. “It may be a combination of risk-on sentiment across the region heading into Jackson Hole and the China support measures,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. “Growth, tech and offshore-listed China stocks are leading gains suggesting that Fed meeting may be playing a bigger role in the late-day move.”
Japanese equities advanced, with the Nikkei 225 posting its first gain in six sessions, as the market looked ahead to remarks Friday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting. The Nikkei rose 0.6% to close at 28,479.01, while the Topix added 0.5% to 1,976.60. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 4.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,445 rose and 597 fell, while 128 were unchanged. “Investors will continue to take a wait-and-see stance until after the speech by Chairman Powell scheduled for the 26th,” said Takashi Ito, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities. “After a round of buying, there is a possibility that there will be a small drop.”
Australia,'s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,048.10, driven by gains in banks and mining shares. The materials sub-gauge rallied to its highest level since June 16, amid advances in iron ore prices. Uranium company Paladin was the top performer, surging after Japan said it is planning a dramatic shift back to nuclear power more than a decade on from the Fukushima disaster. City Chic was the biggest decliner after it flagged an uncertain outlook. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,627.14
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The Aussie led G-10 gains, jumping as much as 1.1% against the greenback as traders turned more optimistic after China announced fresh economic stimulus with a further $146 billion of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending. Australia’s dollar outperformed the kiwi after New Zealand reported disappointing retail sales data. The euro rose to briefly trade above parity against the dollar. Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine; the initial reading was 0%. Separately, German Aug. Ifo business confidence came in at 88.5 vs est. 86.8. The gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4, but better than forecast 79.0. Yen rose on flows-driven trade amid a decline in US yields and general dollar weakness during Asian hours
In rates, Treasury futures were off session highs into the early US session, although yields remained richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve, following wider gains across UK gilts where 10s rally as much as 7bp on the day. US 10-year yields around 3.09%, richer by ~1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 5bp in the sector; curves steady with gains seen across maturities. US auctions conclude with 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time. European bonds advanced in a rally that was led by Italian bonds. Gilts outperform USTs and bunds; gilts 2-year yields drop ~10bps to 2.81%. USTs push higher, led by the belly. Bunds 2-year yield down about 5.5bps to 0.85%. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 5.1bps to 225.7bps. Benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed to its highest in more than a month. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds rises the most since June 27 after the State Council outlined a 19-point policy package to stimulate the economy. The 10-year yield advanced 3bps to 2.66% while the 30-year note yield gained 3bps to 3.14%.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged but closer to the top-end of circa. USD 500 parameters that reside well within the USD 21k area.
WTI jerked drifts 0.4% higher to around $95 after the WSJ reported that the OPEC president is open to cutting oil production. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $13 to trade near $1,764/oz. Natural gas has surged to fresh highs, intensifying an energy crisis that threatens the euro-area economy and hence the global outlook.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 4,179.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 435.05
- MXAP up 1.6% to 160.34
- MXAPJ up 2.0% to 523.18
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,479.01
- Topix up 0.5% to 1,976.60
- Hang Seng Index up 3.6% to 19,968.38
- Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,246.25
- Sensex up 0.5% to 59,385.35
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,048.13
- Kospi up 1.2% to 2,477.26
- German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35%
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.0004
- Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,765.17
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.45% to 108.18
Top overnight news from Bloomberg
- China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that likely won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump
- As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls
- European natural gas extended its blistering rally as the worst supply crunch in decades boosts pressure on politicians to do more to rescue industries and households. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 8.1%, after closing at a record on Wednesday
- The good news is that Ukraine’s crucial grain is leaving its ports again. The bad news is that farmland lost to the war and weak local prices are threatening its next wheat harvest
- Climate change is having a “clear impact” on inflation in the euro area, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview
- The current state of the economy and prices doesn’t allow the Bank of Japan’s easing bias to be shifted to neutral, board member Toyoaki Nakamura tells reporters
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St but with gains capped as attention remained on the looming Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was led higher by commodity stocks after the recent upside in energy and precious metals. Nikkei 225 was underpinned as the government mulled a further loosening of COVID rules and is expected to extend local travel incentives through next month. Shanghai Comp was initially choppy amid the absence of Stock Connect flows after morning trade in Hong Kong was cancelled, although the mood gradually improved with Hong Kong opening for the afternoon session after the storm signal 8 was dropped and following the recent support pledges by China.
Top Asian News
- Chinese Industry Ministry says will accelerate research and development of new types of batteries including sodium-ion batters and hydrogen energy storage batteries; will improve supply capabilities of key resources including lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum.
- Some of China's sate-backed financial firms are said to be pushing back on calls to support the Chinese property sector amid the exposure risk on their balance sheets, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- BoK hiked its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BoK said inflation will remain high for the time being and export growth is to slow, while Governor Rhee said strong inflation could last longer than previously seen. Furthermore, Rhee noted that policies will continue to be inflation-focused for a while and said there will be no change in the 25bps rate increase stance for the foreseeable future.
- China Human Resources Ministry official said they will focus on expanding jobs and will promote fiscal, monetary and industrial policies to support job market stabilisation, according to Reuters.
European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated since. Fresh drivers have been slim with the German Ifo release sparking a brief extension on initial gains of circa. 50 points in Euro Stoxx 50, for instance. Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).
Top European News
- ECB's Lagarde says "we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.".
- Private Jet Shortage Hits English Football’s Pre-Match Prep
- Veolia Must Sell 3 Businesses to Complete Suez Deal, UK Says
- Germany Aug. IFO Business Confidence Index 88.5; Est. 86.8
- London’s Stock Market Misery Grows as Delistings Add to IPO Woes
Commodities
- WTI and Brent October contracts consolidated in the early hours following a session of gains yesterday.
- Spot gold is edging higher in tandem with the decline in the Dollar, with the yellow metal approaching its 50 and 21 DMAs.
- Base metal futures are mostly firmer amid the softer Dollar, with 3M LME copper making its way further above USD 8,000/t.
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium says the SPM-3 inspection has completed, mooring point is fine to work, via Reuters.
- Italian government to update emergency plan for gas next week; will not announce gas rationing plan for now, according to Reuters citing government sources; to include tougher measures in case of further cut or stop of Russian gas flows.
- German Network Regulator VP says is on right track with gas storage but more must be done; will reach 85% storage by October 1st
Fixed Income
- Core benchmarks have derived a pronounced upward bias, despite pronounced pressure alongside initial equity strength and post-Ifo.
- Pressure which has dissipated and given way to modest across the board strength with Bunds eyeing 151.00, Gilts above 111.00 and USTs firmer by 4 ticks.
- Yield dynamics are mixed and are modestly off earlier WTD peaks given the above action, US 7yr due,
Central Banks
- ECB's Lagarde says "we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.".
- BoJ Board Member Nakamura says JPY has weakened significantly so far this year, high volatility has had big impact on Japan's economy; premature to tweak the BoJ's dovish guidance now, there are pros and cons to soft JPY, therefore will watch carefully but there is not much the BoJ can do as moves are driven by changes in US economy.
- South Korean Presidential Office says closely monitoring forex markets, will take timely measures to stabilise the market.
- Fed's Bostic (2024 Voter) says he has not decided whether a 50bp or 75bp increase is appropriate in September, at this point it is a coin toss, via WSJ. Key employment and inflation reports are due prior to the meeting, if data remains strong and inflation clearly doesn't soften then it may make the case for another 75bp move. Too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked, some hopeful signs. Cautioned that expectations the Fed could reverse course in short-order and reduce rates fairly soon is misguided. Upbeat on the economic outlook.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.7%, prior -0.9%
- Personal Consumption, est. 1.5%, prior 1.0%
- GDP Price Index, est. 8.7%, prior 8.7%
- PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%
- 08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 252,000, prior 250,000
- Continuing Claims, est. 1.44m, prior 1.44m
- 11:00: Aug. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 10, prior 13
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been an eventful 24 hours for markets, with sovereign bonds selling off again as investors keep ratcheting up their expectations for central bank rate hikes over the months ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow could throw some more light on how far they’ll go, but the rise in yields has shown no sign of relenting ahead of that, not least since the energy situation in Europe keeps getting worse. In turn, that’s adding to fears that “peak inflation” might not actually have arrived yet for some countries, whilst policymakers are about to face some unenviable choices as they grapple with the worst stagflation we’ve seen in decades.
In terms of the specific moves yesterday, European natural gas futures (+8.59%) settled at another record high of €292 per megawatt-hour amidst growing supply concerns as we head towards the winter months. That wasn’t helped by the news after the European close the previous day, as Freeport LNG said that their natural gas terminal in Texas wouldn’t restart until early to mid-November, having previously been aiming for October. In addition, there’s also the usual Russian supply issues of late to contend with, and there are serious worries that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline might not resume at all following maintenance for three days from August 31. There wasn’t much respite to be found elsewhere either, as German power prices for next year hit a fresh record of their own at €643 per megawatt-hour.
With these supply shocks continuing to fester, investors moved to price in an increasingly aggressive response from central banks. In fact for the ECB, the hikes now priced in for 2022 are the most rapid we’ve seen to date, with an additional +133bps priced by year-end on top of the +50bps we already had in July. And looking further out, overnight index swaps are pricing in +194bps of hikes by June 2023 relative to today, which is up by +9.1bps on the day before. So it was little surprise that sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.2bps), OATs (+6.8bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) all moving higher.
Here in the UK those moves were even more pronounced, with gilts underperforming European sovereigns for a 7th consecutive session. That continues a pattern we’ve seen since the release of the stronger-than-expected UK CPI print last week, as investors have also moved to price in faster rate hikes from the Bank of England. Unlike their continental counterparts however, gilt yields are now at multi-year highs once again, with the 10yr gilt yield (+12.2bps) closing at its highest level since 2014, at 2.69%. Furthermore, the 2s10s curve in the UK flattened a further -9.7bps, leaving it deeper in inversion territory than at any time since 2008.
Over in the US, all attention is on what Fed Chair Powell might say tomorrow at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Nevertheless, the performance for Treasuries echoed what happened in Europe, with 10yr yields up +5.8bps on the day to 3.10%, which is their highest level since late June. They’ve remained fairly stable around those levels overnight too, coming down just -0.9bps. Given the US faces a more favourable situation on the energy side, the moves in central bank pricing weren’t as pronounced as in Europe yesterday. But the peak rate priced in by Fed funds futures for March 2023 still rose +3.5bps on the day as investors continued to adjust their policy expectations closer towards the more hawkish rhetoric from FOMC officials.
Equities weren’t too affected by those developments on the rates side yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.29%) paring back its initial losses to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tech stocks were a big outperformer, with the FANG+ index (+0.96%) of megacap tech stocks seeing sizeable gains, while the NASDAQ (+0.41%) also put in a decent performance. A number of European indices did lose ground on the day however, including the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.22%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (-0.35%), although the broader STOXX 600 did manage to advance +0.16%.
That trend from the US has continued in Asian markets overnight, where equities are broadly trading higher. One supportive factor has been a further package of measures from China’s State Council that includes 1 trillion yuan focused largely on infrastructure spending. That’s bolstered the Shanghai Composite (+0.41%) and the CSI (+0.13%), although both are lagging the Nikkei (+0.56%) and the Kospi (+0.89%). The latter has seen strong gains after the Bank of Korea only hiked rates by 25bps overnight, marking a step down from the 50bps hike at the July meeting, yet the South Korean Won has still strengthened +0.43% against the US Dollar this morning. The Bank of Korea also moved their forecasts in a stagflationary direction, raising their inflation projection for this year to 5.2%, and cutting their growth forecast to 2.6%. Looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards additional gains today, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.35%.
Back on the energy scene, another notable trend over the last week has been a decent recovery in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+1.0%) closing at its highest level so far this month, at $101.22/bbl. And this morning it’s seen further gains as well, up +0.56% to $101.79/bbl. Bear in mind that early last week it had closed at $92.34/bbl, so that’s a recovery of just over +10% since that point. That echoes the recovery we’ve seen in commodities more broadly over recent weeks as well, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+0.67%) closing at a 2-month high yesterday.
Separately, we heard from President Biden yesterday, who announced student debt relief of up to $10,000 for those with an individual income of less than $125,000. For Pell Grant recipients, the relief would be up to $20,000. Furthermore, the current pause on federal student loan repayments is being extended again through the rest of 2022, taking that beyond the mid-term elections in November. Speaking of the midterms, there are signs that the Democrats’ political fortunes are continuing to rise after they won the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district, which had been a closely watched swing race. In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Senate now gives the Democrats a 64% chance of retaining control, their highest number to date. For the House, their model puts them at a 22% chance of retaining control.
On the data side yesterday we had a mixed set of releases from the US. On the positive side, the preliminary reading for core capital goods orders in July showed a +0.4% gain (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month also saw an upward revision of two-tenths to +0.9%. Durable goods orders were unchanged (vs. +0.8% expected), although excluding transportation they were up +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected). Finally, pending home sales fell -1.0% to their lowest level since April 2020. That was better than the -2.6% decline expected, but if you exclude April 2020 during the lockdowns then you’ve got to go back to September 2011 to find a lower reading for that index, which echoes the decline in various housing indicators we’ve seen recently.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.
Futures jumped overnight after China revealed its latest massive stimulus (which however is still woefully insufficient to prop up the country’s crashing housing sector) steadied nerves in the anxious wait for Jerome Powell’s key speech at 8am tomorrow, where the only question is will it be even more hawkish than the market expects, or will it meet expectations, and send dollar and yields tumbling and stocks soaring.
Shortly after 2am ET, China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that analysts quickly agreed won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump. The State Council, China’s Cabinet, outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday, including another 300 billion yuan that state policy banks can invest in infrastructure projects, on top of 300 billion yuan already announced at the end of June. Local governments will be allocated 500 billion yuan of special bonds from previously unused quotas. However, as has been the case for the past 2 years with Beijing’s drip-drip stimulus, economists were downbeat on the measures, while financial markets were muted. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 2 basis points to 2.65%. China’s CSI 300 Index of stocks rose as much as 0.6% before paring gains to trade up 0.3% as of 2:28 p.m. local time. A similar reaction was observed in US futures which initially spiked by nearly 30 points, reaching a high of 4187.5 before fading most of the gains; emini futures traded +0.6%, or 25 points higher, at 7:30am ET, while Nasdaq futures were up 0.85%. Emerging-market stocks also rallied the most in two weeks on the Chinese stimulus news, only to see gains fade. Treasury yields and a dollar gauge dipped, while the crypto space rose on China’s stimulus.
The Chinese-inspired gains failed to stick as traders expect markets to remain volatile as they look to Powell’s comments due Friday at the Jackson Hole meeting for clues on the pace of US monetary tightening. Fed officials in the run-up to Jackson Hole have been clear they see more monetary tightening ahead, a message that’s eroded a bounce in stocks and bonds from mid-June troughs. The tension in markets is whether those assets will continue to head back toward the lows of the year.
“Powell is likely to push back on premature expectations of a dovish pivot, reiterating the focus on the fight against high inflation,” said Silvia Dall’Angelo, a senior economist at Federated Hermes Ltd. “Whether markets take him seriously amid an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy is yet to be seen.”
In premarket trading, Chinese stocks in the US rallied amid recent positivity over Beijing boosting stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan of funding, and as the country takes measures to shore up its currency. Tesla shares rose 2% as the electric-vehicle maker’s 3-for-1 stock split takes effect, confirming US markets remain dominated by idiots. Snowflake shares soared ~17% in premarket trading after the infrastructure software company reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for product revenue. On the other end, Nvidia shares slide ~4% in premarket trading after the chipmaker, which preannounced a month ago and gave a dire forecast, did it again and gave a third- quarter revenue forecast that was below expectations as demand for chips used in gaming computers slipped. Other notable premarket movers:
- Salesforce (CRM US) shares are down 6.6% in premarket trading after the application- software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations but lowered its full-year forecast. Analysts note that the company’s forecast is being hit by FX headwinds and delays in closing large deals.
- Teladoc Health (TDOC US) shares climb 5% in premarket trading after Amazon says it will close its primary care and telehealth service by the end of the year.
- Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares rose as much as 6% in US premarket trading before turning lower. The fluctuation follows a report that the home furnishings retailer is nearing a $375 million loan deal with Sixth Street Partners.
- Kinetik (KNTK US) initiated with an equal-weight recommendation and Street-high price target at Morgan Stanley, which says the midstream services company offers an “attractively positioned set of Permian midstream assets run by a growth-oriented management team.”
- NetApp (NTAP US) shares were up ~4% in extended trading after the computer hardware company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and affirmed its forecast. Analysts note the company continues to see broad-based demand strength, despite supply challenges and FX headwinds.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, paring an earlier advance amid mixed economic data from the region’s biggest economy. Energy and basic resources stocks were the biggest gainers, with retailers underperforming. Sovereign bonds across Europe gained led by short-end bonds. IBEX outperforms, adding 0.6%, FTSE MIB lags, adding 0.1%. In fixed income, short-end bonds lead the move. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- Harbour Energy shares jump as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, as analysts applaud an increased buyback and strong cash flows. Jefferies says 1H results “beat on all metrics”
- Ambu rises as much as 11% on its latest earnings, which were in-line with figures released on Aug. 3. Handelsbanken sees a “no drama” report and DNB highlights a positive free cash flow
- Rentokil gains as much as 2.7% after JPMorgan put the pest control company on a positive catalyst watch as the closing date for the Terminix acquisition nears
- Hunting rises as much as 19% after the company posted better-than-expected profitability, while the outlook for the rest of 2022 and 2023 is positive
- Yara gains as much as 2.8% as Citi flags rising demand for fertilizers. Yara earlier said it would cut production, citing record gas prices
- Tessenderlo climbs as much as 8.1% to a level last seen in April after the Belgian chemicals company raised annual guidance again and said it sees adjusted Ebitda for the year rising 15% to 20%
- Komax rises as much as 5% after Credit Suisse raises the wire processing machines maker to outperform, seeing its recent merger with Schleuniger as highly- accretive
- Elekta falls as much as 11% after the firm presented its latest earnings. Jefferies noted a “disappointing” drop in order intake, while Handelsbanken flags a soft outlook
- Baloise drops as much as 7.6%, hitting the lowest since March, after the Swiss financial services firm reported solid, “yet unspectacular” results, according to Vontobel
- Daetwyler falls as much as 6.3%, the most since May, as Credit Suisse cut its price target on the rubber components and seals maker following its results in the prior session
- Grafton declines as much as 5.4% after reporting 1H profit that missed expectations. The company said the weakness was due to hot weather in the UK and less construction activity
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded strongly after a five-day loss to head for their biggest advance since the end of May, boosted by a late surge in Hong Kong shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.6% late in the Asian day, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent being the biggest contributors to its gain. The gauge’s increase earlier in the session was driven by export-heavy markets like Korea and Taiwan as the dollar weakened. The Hang Seng Index surged 3.6%, the most since April 29, leading the late regional rebound that some traders attributed to short-covering ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference. The morning trading session in Hong Kong was suspended due to a tropical storm warning. The amount of bearish bets against Hong Kong stocks rose to levels that could trigger a surge in share prices as traders rush to close out their positions, according to quantitative analysts at Morgan Stanley. A gauge of Chinese tech names listed in the financial hub soared 6%. It is still down about 25% this year. Markets have been edgy ahead of Powell’s speech, with the MSCI Asia gauge losing 3.1% in the last five sessions.
Thursday’s move looks like “pre-positioning,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are taking positions on expectations” of a less hawkish commentary from Powell, he said. Chinese stocks on the mainland also rose as the nation stepped up measures to bolster growth with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of stimulus. South Korean shares gained on foreign buying even after the nation’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, while Taiwanese stocks also climbed. “It may be a combination of risk-on sentiment across the region heading into Jackson Hole and the China support measures,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. “Growth, tech and offshore-listed China stocks are leading gains suggesting that Fed meeting may be playing a bigger role in the late-day move.”
Japanese equities advanced, with the Nikkei 225 posting its first gain in six sessions, as the market looked ahead to remarks Friday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting. The Nikkei rose 0.6% to close at 28,479.01, while the Topix added 0.5% to 1,976.60. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 4.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,445 rose and 597 fell, while 128 were unchanged. “Investors will continue to take a wait-and-see stance until after the speech by Chairman Powell scheduled for the 26th,” said Takashi Ito, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities. “After a round of buying, there is a possibility that there will be a small drop.”
Australia,’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,048.10, driven by gains in banks and mining shares. The materials sub-gauge rallied to its highest level since June 16, amid advances in iron ore prices. Uranium company Paladin was the top performer, surging after Japan said it is planning a dramatic shift back to nuclear power more than a decade on from the Fukushima disaster. City Chic was the biggest decliner after it flagged an uncertain outlook. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,627.14
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The Aussie led G-10 gains, jumping as much as 1.1% against the greenback as traders turned more optimistic after China announced fresh economic stimulus with a further $146 billion of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending. Australia’s dollar outperformed the kiwi after New Zealand reported disappointing retail sales data. The euro rose to briefly trade above parity against the dollar. Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine; the initial reading was 0%. Separately, German Aug. Ifo business confidence came in at 88.5 vs est. 86.8. The gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4, but better than forecast 79.0. Yen rose on flows-driven trade amid a decline in US yields and general dollar weakness during Asian hours
In rates, Treasury futures were off session highs into the early US session, although yields remained richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve, following wider gains across UK gilts where 10s rally as much as 7bp on the day. US 10-year yields around 3.09%, richer by ~1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 5bp in the sector; curves steady with gains seen across maturities. US auctions conclude with 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time. European bonds advanced in a rally that was led by Italian bonds. Gilts outperform USTs and bunds; gilts 2-year yields drop ~10bps to 2.81%. USTs push higher, led by the belly. Bunds 2-year yield down about 5.5bps to 0.85%. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 5.1bps to 225.7bps. Benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed to its highest in more than a month. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds rises the most since June 27 after the State Council outlined a 19-point policy package to stimulate the economy. The 10-year yield advanced 3bps to 2.66% while the 30-year note yield gained 3bps to 3.14%.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged but closer to the top-end of circa. USD 500 parameters that reside well within the USD 21k area.
WTI jerked drifts 0.4% higher to around $95 after the WSJ reported that the OPEC president is open to cutting oil production. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $13 to trade near $1,764/oz. Natural gas has surged to fresh highs, intensifying an energy crisis that threatens the euro-area economy and hence the global outlook.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 4,179.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 435.05
- MXAP up 1.6% to 160.34
- MXAPJ up 2.0% to 523.18
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,479.01
- Topix up 0.5% to 1,976.60
- Hang Seng Index up 3.6% to 19,968.38
- Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,246.25
- Sensex up 0.5% to 59,385.35
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,048.13
- Kospi up 1.2% to 2,477.26
- German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35%
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.0004
- Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,765.17
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.45% to 108.18
Top overnight news from Bloomberg
- China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that likely won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump
- As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls
- European natural gas extended its blistering rally as the worst supply crunch in decades boosts pressure on politicians to do more to rescue industries and households. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 8.1%, after closing at a record on Wednesday
- The good news is that Ukraine’s crucial grain is leaving its ports again. The bad news is that farmland lost to the war and weak local prices are threatening its next wheat harvest
- Climate change is having a “clear impact” on inflation in the euro area, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview
- The current state of the economy and prices doesn’t allow the Bank of Japan’s easing bias to be shifted to neutral, board member Toyoaki Nakamura tells reporters
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St but with gains capped as attention remained on the looming Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was led higher by commodity stocks after the recent upside in energy and precious metals. Nikkei 225 was underpinned as the government mulled a further loosening of COVID rules and is expected to extend local travel incentives through next month. Shanghai Comp was initially choppy amid the absence of Stock Connect flows after morning trade in Hong Kong was cancelled, although the mood gradually improved with Hong Kong opening for the afternoon session after the storm signal 8 was dropped and following the recent support pledges by China.
Top Asian News
- Chinese Industry Ministry says will accelerate research and development of new types of batteries including sodium-ion batters and hydrogen energy storage batteries; will improve supply capabilities of key resources including lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum.
- Some of China’s sate-backed financial firms are said to be pushing back on calls to support the Chinese property sector amid the exposure risk on their balance sheets, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- BoK hiked its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BoK said inflation will remain high for the time being and export growth is to slow, while Governor Rhee said strong inflation could last longer than previously seen. Furthermore, Rhee noted that policies will continue to be inflation-focused for a while and said there will be no change in the 25bps rate increase stance for the foreseeable future.
- China Human Resources Ministry official said they will focus on expanding jobs and will promote fiscal, monetary and industrial policies to support job market stabilisation, according to Reuters.
European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated since. Fresh drivers have been slim with the German Ifo release sparking a brief extension on initial gains of circa. 50 points in Euro Stoxx 50, for instance. Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).
Top European News
- ECB’s Lagarde says “we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.”.
- Private Jet Shortage Hits English Football’s Pre-Match Prep
- Veolia Must Sell 3 Businesses to Complete Suez Deal, UK Says
- Germany Aug. IFO Business Confidence Index 88.5; Est. 86.8
- London’s Stock Market Misery Grows as Delistings Add to IPO Woes
Commodities
- WTI and Brent October contracts consolidated in the early hours following a session of gains yesterday.
- Spot gold is edging higher in tandem with the decline in the Dollar, with the yellow metal approaching its 50 and 21 DMAs.
- Base metal futures are mostly firmer amid the softer Dollar, with 3M LME copper making its way further above USD 8,000/t.
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium says the SPM-3 inspection has completed, mooring point is fine to work, via Reuters.
- Italian government to update emergency plan for gas next week; will not announce gas rationing plan for now, according to Reuters citing government sources; to include tougher measures in case of further cut or stop of Russian gas flows.
- German Network Regulator VP says is on right track with gas storage but more must be done; will reach 85% storage by October 1st
Fixed Income
- Core benchmarks have derived a pronounced upward bias, despite pronounced pressure alongside initial equity strength and post-Ifo.
- Pressure which has dissipated and given way to modest across the board strength with Bunds eyeing 151.00, Gilts above 111.00 and USTs firmer by 4 ticks.
- Yield dynamics are mixed and are modestly off earlier WTD peaks given the above action, US 7yr due,
Central Banks
- ECB’s Lagarde says “we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.”.
- BoJ Board Member Nakamura says JPY has weakened significantly so far this year, high volatility has had big impact on Japan’s economy; premature to tweak the BoJ’s dovish guidance now, there are pros and cons to soft JPY, therefore will watch carefully but there is not much the BoJ can do as moves are driven by changes in US economy.
- South Korean Presidential Office says closely monitoring forex markets, will take timely measures to stabilise the market.
- Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter) says he has not decided whether a 50bp or 75bp increase is appropriate in September, at this point it is a coin toss, via WSJ. Key employment and inflation reports are due prior to the meeting, if data remains strong and inflation clearly doesn’t soften then it may make the case for another 75bp move. Too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked, some hopeful signs. Cautioned that expectations the Fed could reverse course in short-order and reduce rates fairly soon is misguided. Upbeat on the economic outlook.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.7%, prior -0.9%
- Personal Consumption, est. 1.5%, prior 1.0%
- GDP Price Index, est. 8.7%, prior 8.7%
- PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%
- 08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 252,000, prior 250,000
- Continuing Claims, est. 1.44m, prior 1.44m
- 11:00: Aug. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 10, prior 13
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been an eventful 24 hours for markets, with sovereign bonds selling off again as investors keep ratcheting up their expectations for central bank rate hikes over the months ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow could throw some more light on how far they’ll go, but the rise in yields has shown no sign of relenting ahead of that, not least since the energy situation in Europe keeps getting worse. In turn, that’s adding to fears that “peak inflation” might not actually have arrived yet for some countries, whilst policymakers are about to face some unenviable choices as they grapple with the worst stagflation we’ve seen in decades.
In terms of the specific moves yesterday, European natural gas futures (+8.59%) settled at another record high of €292 per megawatt-hour amidst growing supply concerns as we head towards the winter months. That wasn’t helped by the news after the European close the previous day, as Freeport LNG said that their natural gas terminal in Texas wouldn’t restart until early to mid-November, having previously been aiming for October. In addition, there’s also the usual Russian supply issues of late to contend with, and there are serious worries that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline might not resume at all following maintenance for three days from August 31. There wasn’t much respite to be found elsewhere either, as German power prices for next year hit a fresh record of their own at €643 per megawatt-hour.
With these supply shocks continuing to fester, investors moved to price in an increasingly aggressive response from central banks. In fact for the ECB, the hikes now priced in for 2022 are the most rapid we’ve seen to date, with an additional +133bps priced by year-end on top of the +50bps we already had in July. And looking further out, overnight index swaps are pricing in +194bps of hikes by June 2023 relative to today, which is up by +9.1bps on the day before. So it was little surprise that sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.2bps), OATs (+6.8bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) all moving higher.
Here in the UK those moves were even more pronounced, with gilts underperforming European sovereigns for a 7th consecutive session. That continues a pattern we’ve seen since the release of the stronger-than-expected UK CPI print last week, as investors have also moved to price in faster rate hikes from the Bank of England. Unlike their continental counterparts however, gilt yields are now at multi-year highs once again, with the 10yr gilt yield (+12.2bps) closing at its highest level since 2014, at 2.69%. Furthermore, the 2s10s curve in the UK flattened a further -9.7bps, leaving it deeper in inversion territory than at any time since 2008.
Over in the US, all attention is on what Fed Chair Powell might say tomorrow at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Nevertheless, the performance for Treasuries echoed what happened in Europe, with 10yr yields up +5.8bps on the day to 3.10%, which is their highest level since late June. They’ve remained fairly stable around those levels overnight too, coming down just -0.9bps. Given the US faces a more favourable situation on the energy side, the moves in central bank pricing weren’t as pronounced as in Europe yesterday. But the peak rate priced in by Fed funds futures for March 2023 still rose +3.5bps on the day as investors continued to adjust their policy expectations closer towards the more hawkish rhetoric from FOMC officials.
Equities weren’t too affected by those developments on the rates side yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.29%) paring back its initial losses to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tech stocks were a big outperformer, with the FANG+ index (+0.96%) of megacap tech stocks seeing sizeable gains, while the NASDAQ (+0.41%) also put in a decent performance. A number of European indices did lose ground on the day however, including the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.22%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (-0.35%), although the broader STOXX 600 did manage to advance +0.16%.
That trend from the US has continued in Asian markets overnight, where equities are broadly trading higher. One supportive factor has been a further package of measures from China’s State Council that includes 1 trillion yuan focused largely on infrastructure spending. That’s bolstered the Shanghai Composite (+0.41%) and the CSI (+0.13%), although both are lagging the Nikkei (+0.56%) and the Kospi (+0.89%). The latter has seen strong gains after the Bank of Korea only hiked rates by 25bps overnight, marking a step down from the 50bps hike at the July meeting, yet the South Korean Won has still strengthened +0.43% against the US Dollar this morning. The Bank of Korea also moved their forecasts in a stagflationary direction, raising their inflation projection for this year to 5.2%, and cutting their growth forecast to 2.6%. Looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards additional gains today, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.35%.
Back on the energy scene, another notable trend over the last week has been a decent recovery in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+1.0%) closing at its highest level so far this month, at $101.22/bbl. And this morning it’s seen further gains as well, up +0.56% to $101.79/bbl. Bear in mind that early last week it had closed at $92.34/bbl, so that’s a recovery of just over +10% since that point. That echoes the recovery we’ve seen in commodities more broadly over recent weeks as well, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+0.67%) closing at a 2-month high yesterday.
Separately, we heard from President Biden yesterday, who announced student debt relief of up to $10,000 for those with an individual income of less than $125,000. For Pell Grant recipients, the relief would be up to $20,000. Furthermore, the current pause on federal student loan repayments is being extended again through the rest of 2022, taking that beyond the mid-term elections in November. Speaking of the midterms, there are signs that the Democrats’ political fortunes are continuing to rise after they won the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district, which had been a closely watched swing race. In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Senate now gives the Democrats a 64% chance of retaining control, their highest number to date. For the House, their model puts them at a 22% chance of retaining control.
On the data side yesterday we had a mixed set of releases from the US. On the positive side, the preliminary reading for core capital goods orders in July showed a +0.4% gain (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month also saw an upward revision of two-tenths to +0.9%. Durable goods orders were unchanged (vs. +0.8% expected), although excluding transportation they were up +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected). Finally, pending home sales fell -1.0% to their lowest level since April 2020. That was better than the -2.6% decline expected, but if you exclude April 2020 during the lockdowns then you’ve got to go back to September 2011 to find a lower reading for that index, which echoes the decline in various housing indicators we’ve seen recently.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.
