With control of Congress expected to hinge on a narrow margin in 2026, a small group of House and Senate incumbents is already emerging as the most vulnerable lawmakers of the coming cycle.
Both parties are already zeroing in on a limited group of races likely to determine the balance of power. Many of the most vulnerable incumbents represent districts or states that have been reshaped by redistricting, were narrowly carried in 2024, or are undergoing demographic and political shifts that have turned once-stable seats into genuine battlegrounds. The vulnerability ratings below are based on analysis from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, along with fundraising data, recent election results, and candidate developments as the 2026 cycle begins to take shape.
This list focuses exclusively on incumbents and does not take into account open-seat races. It also excludes California lawmakers following voter approval of Proposition 50, which locks in a Democrat-drawn congressional map for the next three election cycles.
House battlegrounds
Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO), 8th District
Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) is shaping up to be one of Democrats’ top pickup targets in 2026 as they look to claw back ground in Colorado’s most competitive congressional district.
A former police officer, Evans represents a fast-growing district north of Denver that has become increasingly diverse and politically volatile. The seat features a large Latino population and has swung narrowly in recent cycles, placing it firmly on both parties’ shortlists.
Democrats are eager to challenge Evans but face an unsettled primary that could complicate their path. Former Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who previously represented the district, has entered the race, as has Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel. Additional candidates are still being discussed, raising the possibility of a crowded and possibly divisive nomination fight.
Evans entered October with close to $2 million on hand, dwarfing the cash reserves of every other Democrat in the field.
All three candidates have emphasized their Hispanic heritage, a central factor in a district where Latino voters are expected to play an outsize role in determining the outcome.
Republicans view Evans as a strong fit for the district’s law-and-order electorate, while Democrats see the seat as one of their clearest opportunities to flip a suburban district amid shifting coalitions and a high-stakes presidential midterm environment.
Rep. Vicente Gonzales (D-TX), 34th District
Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) enters the 2026 cycle as one of the few Democrats still holding a South Texas seat that has rapidly shifted right. His border district, which is majority Latino, moved more than 15 points toward President Donald Trump in 2024, and Texas Republicans subsequently redrew the map to further strengthen GOP prospects there. Even so, Gonzalez has made clear he plans to seek another term.
A centrist Democrat in his fifth term, Gonzalez has frequently broken with party activists, including publicly warning that Democrats risk alienating voters by moving too far left on matters such as abortion policy and transgender rights. He also ran ahead of the top of the Democratic ticket in 2024, outperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris in the district.
Financially, Gonzalez begins the race with a meaningful advantage. He closed September with roughly $1.3 million in the bank, more than both of his likely Republican opponents. That includes former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, whom Gonzalez defeated in back-to-back elections in 2022 and 2024, and Eric Flores, an Army veteran and attorney who is not related to the former congresswoman.
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), 7th District
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) heads into 2026 defending one of Pennsylvania’s most closely divided seats, a Lehigh Valley district that played a key role in the GOP’s return to the House majority. After capturing the seat last cycle, Mackenzie faces the challenge of holding together a coalition that depends heavily on swing voters in a region known for rapid demographic and political change.
The district’s sizable Hispanic electorate is expected to be a decisive force, placing added pressure on both parties to compete aggressively for turnout and persuasion. That dynamic is already shaping the Democratic field, where a competitive nomination fight is underway.
Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure launched his campaign in February and has begun building a financial base, reporting $142,000 in raised funds. He is being challenged by Carol Obando-Derstine, a former utility executive and onetime aide to former Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. Obando-Derstine has secured the endorsement of former Democratic Rep. Susan Wild after entering the race following the most recent filing deadline. He has not yet disclosed fundraising totals.
Mackenzie’s fundraising slowed in the third quarter, but he still maintains a sizable financial edge, with $1.4 million cash on hand, well ahead of his Democratic challengers.
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), 1st District
Few House Republicans face a more unforgiving electoral landscape than Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), whose hold on southeastern Iowa has long been defined by narrow margins and repeat matchups. After four attempts, Miller-Meeks finally won the seat and has since seen each race turn into a high-wire contest. That pattern continued in 2024, when she defeated Democrat Christina Bohannan by just 799 votes.
Bohannan, a former state lawmaker and law professor, is seeking a rematch that would mark their third general election showdown, though both candidates must first navigate contested primaries. Miller-Meeks again faces a challenge from David Pautsch, a Gold Star father who drew 44% of the vote in last year’s Republican primary, while Bohannan is competing against attorney Taylor Wettach and healthcare worker Travis Terrell on the Democratic side.
The razor-thin 2024 result appears to have sharpened Miller-Meeks’s focus on fundraising. She has raised more than $3 million this cycle and ended September with $2.6 million cash on hand, giving her a clear financial edge heading into another competitive year. Bohannan has also posted strong numbers, raising nearly $2 million since entering the race and reporting $1.6 million in the bank.
The district’s volatility has only heightened the stakes. Trump outpaced Miller-Meeks at the top of the ticket last cycle, underscoring challenges within the GOP coalition and reinforcing why Iowa’s 1st District is once again shaping up as one of the most closely watched House races.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), 6th District
After surviving two hard-fought elections against Democrat Kirsten Engel, Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) enters the 2026 cycle facing a different kind of test. His latest challenger is JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine Corps veteran from southern Arizona who is positioning herself as a populist alternative focused on cost-of-living pressures and healthcare access.
Ciscomani, the first Latino Republican elected to Congress from Arizona and an immigrant from Mexico, has built his profile around water policy and regional infrastructure, matters with particular resonance in the state’s arid southeastern corridor. Mendoza has taken a more confrontational approach, attacking Republican-backed reductions to Medicaid and framing the race as a referendum on economic security for working families.
Early fundraising reflects a competitive environment. Mendoza edged Ciscomani in third-quarter receipts, raising $696,000 to the incumbent’s $613,000. Even so, Ciscomani retains a substantial financial cushion, closing September with $2.4 million on hand, compared with Mendoza’s $950,000.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH), 1st District
Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) enters the 2026 cycle in a markedly tougher political environment after Ohio’s latest round of redistricting reshaped his Cincinnati-based district. Ohio’s 1st District now absorbs heavily Republican Clinton County while shedding leftward-trending Hamilton County suburbs, transforming a seat Harris carried by six points into one she would have lost by roughly 2 1/2 points. The shift places Landsman among the most vulnerable House Democrats as the party works to claw back the chamber.
Reflecting the new terrain, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Landsman to its Frontline program in late November, signaling the seat will require significant resources to defend. The move came weeks after Republican lawmakers finalized a map that gives the GOP a structural advantage in the district, setting up a high-stakes and closely watched race in 2026.
Landsman has also moved quickly to build financial strength ahead of the tougher fight. His campaign raised about $1.3 million through the first three quarters of 2025 and reported roughly $1.1 million cash on hand, giving him an early fundraising cushion as national Democrats brace for an expensive defense.
Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI), 7th District
Michigan’s 7th District, one of the few House seats that regularly tracks the presidential winner, is again shaping up as a top Democratic target after Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) flipped it in 2024. The freshman Republican defeated Democrat Curtis Hertel by four points and ran ahead of Trump, leaning on his military background to win over swing voters while quickly building his campaign operation. Barrett has continued to build a formidable war chest, raising nearly $2.8 million overall and reporting about $1.8 million in cash on hand in his most recent filing.
Democrats face a competitive primary led by former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, who raised about $250,000 within a day of launching her campaign, and Matt Maasdam, a retired Navy SEAL and former Obama aide with ties to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who previously represented the district. Neither has deep local roots, giving Barrett an opening as he heads into his first midterm with narrow margins and a closely divided electorate likely to decide the race again.
Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ), 7th District
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) heads into the 2026 cycle in an increasingly competitive New Jersey district that has steadily moved left over the past decade. The 7th District, which runs along the Pennsylvania border and is home to affluent suburban voters, backed Republicans by double digits during the Obama era before flipping to former President Joe Biden by roughly 3 1/2 points in 2020. While the seat shifted slightly right in 2024, with Trump narrowly carrying it, Democrats continued to show strength down-ballot, reinforcing its status as a true battleground.
Kean, a former state Assembly minority leader and the son of a former governor, ousted Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022 and won reelection last year by five points against Sue Altman, whose past progressive positions limited her general election appeal. The Democratic field is shaping up more favorably this time, with a crowded primary and early fundraising suggesting Rebecca Bennett, a former helicopter pilot, and Tina Shah, a physician and former Obama and Biden administration official, as the leading contenders.
Kean has also built a sizable financial advantage early, raising about $2.6 million so far in the 2026 cycle and reporting nearly $2 million cash on hand, giving him a strong fundraising foundation in what is shaping up to be a toss-up race.
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), 2nd District
Virginia’s 2nd District remains one of the most competitive House seats in the country, with a long track record of swinging between the parties. Anchored in Virginia Beach and home to the nation’s largest naval base, the district has voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump again in 2024, and has flipped control four times over the past 20 years. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) has represented the seat since 2022, but history suggests little room for complacency.
Kiggans, a former Navy helicopter pilot and nurse practitioner, is widely expected to face a rematch against former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, her 2022 opponent and the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination despite a contested primary. This time, however, Kiggans runs as the incumbent amid political headwinds tied to Trump, whose federal workforce cuts have landed heavily in a district dominated by military and defense-related employment.
Recent statewide results underscore the district’s volatility. Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) carried the 2nd District by nearly eight points, the strongest Democratic showing there in more than a decade, while Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares narrowly won. Those outcomes point to a wide performance range: from a high-water mark for Republicans in favorable conditions to a clear Democratic edge in a tougher environment. As a result, Kiggans heads into 2026 in a district where small shifts in turnout and ticket-splitting, particularly in Virginia Beach, are likely to determine the outcome once again.
Kiggans has also built a sizable campaign account, raising nearly $2.9 million for the cycle and reporting just under $2 million in cash on hand in her most recent filing.
Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM), 2nd District
Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) heads into the 2026 cycle defending a New Mexico district that moved sharply to the right last year, narrowly backing Trump even as Vasquez expanded his margin from 2022. The 2nd District, which spans the entirety of New Mexico’s border with Mexico and is roughly 55% Hispanic, remains one of Democrats’ most fragile holds in the Southwest.
Republicans, who spent much of the year waiting on former Rep. Yvette Herrell before she accepted a Trump administration post, now have a developing primary field. Radio host Eddy Aragon, retired police officer and former legislative candidate Greg Cunningham, and federal contractor Jose Orozco have all entered the race, with GOP operatives still watching for a stronger late-entering contender.
Vasquez has so far proven difficult to dislodge, successfully neutralizing attacks on policing and immigration by emphasizing border security, cartel enforcement, and bilingual outreach to Hispanic voters. Democrats are also expected to lean heavily into healthcare, highlighting Trump-backed Medicaid cuts in a district where roughly 40% of residents rely on the program. With immigration and healthcare set to dominate the race, the seat remains competitive but unsettled as Republicans search for a nominee capable of capitalizing on the district’s rightward drift.
Senate Battlegrounds
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
Georgia places Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in a uniquely difficult position: he is the only Democratic senator here running in a state that backed Trump in 2024. The contest will be his first time defending the seat since his narrow runoff victory four years ago, when his win over David Perdue helped tip Senate control to Democrats.
The Republican side is unsettled and competitive. Sitting Reps. Mike Collins (R-GA) and Buddy Carter (R-GA) are both in the race, joined by Derek Dooley, a political newcomer and former college football coach whose candidacy has drawn support from Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA).
Ossoff has built a substantial financial cushion. He brought in more than $12 million during the third quarter and ended September with over $21 million on hand, far outpacing any of his possible challengers. Democrats are also encouraged by recent down-ballot results in Georgia, including flipping two seats on the state’s Public Service Commission, reinforcing their view that the state remains highly competitive.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
Maine is lining up for another high-stakes Senate showdown, with Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) preparing for a difficult reelection environment in a state that has continued to trend Democratic at the presidential level. Although she has not yet launched a sixth-term bid, Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state carried by Harris in 2024, putting her squarely in the national spotlight.
Democrats are already engaged in a competitive and well-funded primary to determine who will challenge her. Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) faces a challenge from Graham Platner, an oyster farmer whose campaign has tapped into generational and ideological tensions within the party and quickly built financial momentum, raising more than $3 million shortly after launching. Platner’s rise has been complicated by scrutiny over past online activity, while former congressional staffer Jordan Wood has also mounted a serious bid, reporting more than $3 million raised since entering the race this spring.
Meanwhile, Collins is preparing for a familiar set of headwinds as she defends her record amid Democratic attacks over healthcare costs and the fallout from the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, which came after her last reelection. Still, she begins the cycle with financial strength, ending September with roughly $6.7 million on hand as what could be her toughest reelection race takes shape.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) reelection threat is coming first and foremost from his own party. For months, the Texas Republican has been locked in a high-stakes primary fight against Attorney General Ken Paxton, a hard-right firebrand who has worked to cast Cornyn as out of step with the GOP base. That challenge intensified with the entry of Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), opening a three-way contest that could further fracture Republican voters and deny Cornyn a clear path to renomination.
Senate GOP leaders have lined up behind Cornyn, and a pro-Cornyn super PAC is already on the air, boosting his candidacy. The spending appears to be helping. An October poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University showed Cornyn and Paxton effectively tied, with Hunt trailing in third. Cornyn reported raising $910,000 last quarter through his principal campaign committee and roughly $2.4 million through joint fundraising accounts. Paxton raised $1.3 million over the same period, while Hunt brought in $366,000 through his House campaign account.
Democrats are simultaneously assembling a crowded and well-funded field in anticipation of a competitive general election if Cornyn survives the primary. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico quickly emerged as a fundraising force, raising $6.2 million in his first three weeks in the race. Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) by eight points last year, raised about $4.1 million for his second Senate bid. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has also entered the race, giving Democrats another high-profile contender with a national profile and strong ties to the party’s progressive base.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
In reliably Republican Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is not in danger in a general election. His political risk lies squarely in the GOP primary, where a crowded field of challengers is working to turn lingering distrust from the Republican base into a fatal weakness.
Cassidy begins the cycle with a dominant financial position, reporting about $9.5 million cash on hand at the start of October, well ahead of rivals including state Treasurer John Fleming, Republican state Rep. Julie Emerson, Republican state Sen. Blake Miguez, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden. But his opponents are less focused on matching his war chest than on relitigating a single vote that still animates Republican primary voters.
Cassidy is one of just three sitting GOP senators who voted to convict Trump following the Jan. 6 impeachment trial, and challengers have made that decision a central rallying point as they seek the president’s endorsement. Cassidy allies counter that he has taken visible steps to mend ties with the president, including repeated White House visits and publicly aligning with Trump on key priorities, even as the primary field continues to test whether those efforts are enough to secure renomination.
Sen. John Husted (R-OH)
Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) entered the Senate by appointment, elevated earlier this year by Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) after Vice President JD Vance vacated the seat for his current position. Backed by DeWine and well known within state Republican circles, Husted begins the cycle with little resistance inside his party, a stark contrast to the bruising GOP primaries that defined Ohio’s recent Senate races.
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The general election picture is far less settled. Democrats have turned to a familiar figure in former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is attempting a comeback after losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024. Brown’s entry has given Democrats their clearest path to contention in a state that has drifted reliably red in recent cycles.
Money will play an outsize role. Brown has moved quickly to rebuild his campaign infrastructure, raising roughly $7 million in the six weeks following his launch. Meanwhile, Husted closed September with approximately $5 million cash on hand, reinforcing his position as a well-funded incumbent heading into a high-profile special election to fill the remaining two years of Vance’s term.
