Rep. Jasmine Crockett‘s (D-TX) entrance into the Texas Senate race may have shaken up Democrats’ primary field, but concerns over her electability in a statewide race have grown within the party.
Any Democratic nominee in the race, whether it be Crockett or State Rep. James Talarico, has an uphill battle to beat out whoever the Republican nominee is. While previous polls have shown Crockett up in the primary, Democrats are concerned about her electability on a general election ballot against the Republican nominee.
“I haven’t made any endorsements in the race,” a House Democrat from Texas told the Washington Examiner. “I know both the candidates well. I think I’m concerned about electability. I think that’s the key issue, and I know Jasmine has her version of that. I think the polls that I’ve seen suggest that Talarico has an advantage in that regard.”
“No, I don’t, and I feel bad saying that,” another anonymous House Democrat told the Washington Examiner when asked if she thinks Crockett can win a general election.
Democrats are facing a difficult Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections, but one that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has put a lot of work into getting electable candidates, such as former North Caroline Gov. Roy Cooper, former Sen. Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and former Rep. Mary Peltola from Alaska, to run in tough races. If this year proves to be a good year for Democrats, Texas could be one of a few states to flip the upper chamber.
The two Democratic candidates are both seeking to flip Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat, which would be a massive upset in the red state. Cornyn also faces a competitive primary field ahead of him after Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton launched bids to unseat the over two-decade incumbent. The Republican primary is expected to go to a runoff in May.
“I think you have to see like but what’s important about those numbers is on the Democrat side who is walking into a general with the highest favorability data and the highest electability data at this point that looks like it’s Talarico who I think can be less polarizing, especially for the given absolute fact that you must convince people who have voted Republican in the past, who voted for Donald Trump, to take a chance,” Democratic Operative Jon Reneish told the Washington Examiner.
Reneish suspects Schumer will withhold from making an endorsement in this race, as it is expected that President Donald Trump will stay out of the Texas primary. The Lone Star State’s primary is the first of the year, set for March 3.
“Rep. Crockett doesn’t stand a chance in the general election,” a Democratic Senate staffer told the Washington Examiner. “She has branded herself as staunchly anti-Trump and is running in Texas, a state that Trump won in 2024 by 1.5 million votes, the largest margin in 20 years. Democrats’ best chance is to run a fresh face unstained by D.C. politics, like state Rep. Talarico.”
The two Democrats are set to debate Jan. 24 in Georgetown, Texas, ahead of early voting that begins Feb. 17.
Talarico raised more than $13 million since he launched his Senate campaign last September, bringing in $6.8 million in the fourth quarter, with 98% of donations of $100 or less, and teachers were the most common profession among donors. The Texas state representative has pledged not to accept donations from corporate PACs.
As of the end of September, Crockett had $4.6 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission, but has not released fundraising numbers since she launched her campaign late last year.
Talarico has been creeping up in the polls, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday that shows Talarico leading Crockett by nine points among likely Democratic voters, marking a large shift from a December poll.
The December poll showed that despite Talarico’s haul, Crockett’s name recognition had her leading Talarico by 8 points in the primary, according to a Texas Southern University survey conducted last month. Another October poll by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University showed Crockett with an 18% lead over Talarico.
Talarico jumped into the race earlier this year, massively outraising former Rep. Colin Allred, who was the Democratic Senate nominee in 2024. Allred suspended his campaign just hours before Crockett announced her bid on the filing deadline for Texas last month.
Crockett has quickly risen to fame, serving her second term in the lower chamber, as the GOP has strived to make her the face of the Democratic Party. The social media star has focused much of her campaign against Trump, with her launch video being a series of insults the president has said about her.
“Entering the senate race a little over a month ago, Crockett has both internal and public polling showing she can defeat the Republican nominee in November,” Crockett’s campaign wrote in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “While the Emerson poll overall had many flaws, including that only 28% of the sample were self-described Democrats, Crockett still leads Ken Paxton.”
While many in the Democratic Party believe she can’t win a general election in a red state, others have argued she represents a faction of the party that wants a “fighter.”
“I think people are looking for, you know, sort of kick-in-the-door leadership right now, and that’s Jasmine,” Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) told the Washington Examiner. “She’s somebody who is clearly a fighter and not afraid at all, not just to speak her mind, but to fix the things that desperately need fixing, and that’s what people want.”
The anonymous House Democrat agreed that the base wants fighters, but “they also want people who are listening more than they’re talking.”
“I feel like they really want people to take a beat and listen deeply to what people are saying, and I’m not saying she’s not doing that,” the anonymous House Democrat continued. “I don’t think she comes across that way.”
The congresswoman has had many viral moments on social media for her quick-witted comments. One of the most viewed instances was an argument between her and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene during a committee hearing where the Texas Democrat referred to the Georgia Republican’s “bleach blonde, bad-built, butch body.”
While Crockett is a firebrand who is known for her attacks on Trump, Talarico is seen as more of an even-keeled candidate.
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Talarico is in seminary, studying to become a pastor, while also serving in the state House. The 36-year-old has 1.2 million TikTok followers and is a former sixth-grade teacher in San Antonio. Just weeks before launching his campaign, Talarico joined Joe Rogan’s podcast to discuss his outlook as a Christian Democrat.
