Among President Joe Biden‘s most potent midterm talking points is that Medicare and Social Security — long considered the untouchable third rail of American politics — are under threat if Republicans take control of Congress.
Biden has repeatedly said that both entitlement programs, designed to shore up financial security for senior citizens, will be “on the chopping block” if the GOP takes over the House and Senate. On Thursday he promised that this was no empty threat.
“They’re coming after Social Security. Now it sounds like, you know, ‘there’s Biden. That’s a typical Democrat saying Republicans are after Social Security,'” Biden said. “This is the one thing [Republicans] have said out loud. They’ve written it down on pieces of paper.”
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Democrats are being encouraged to more aggressively talk about the economy as the campaign winds down, and Biden’s recent speeches indicate he gets the message. He issued another statement Friday morning saying the GOP would drive up inflation and raise costs for prescription drugs and healthcare, while noting Social Security payments are set to increase in order to offset inflation.
The president’s claims about Republicans slashing the sacred programs stem from an 11-point plan released by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), which claims under point six that “all federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.”
Democrats have hammered this point ever since, even though Scott clarified that his plan is to reform the program rather than cut it. Factcheck.org called Biden’s claims misleading, and Republican strategist John Feehery says it amounts to little more than desperate fearmongering.
“Biden is lying mostly because he has nothing else good to say,” he said. “Republicans should keep their focus on the economy and inflation and not dignify it with a response. It is pretty obvious he is desperate, and desperate times require desperate measures.”
On the other side, Democratic strategist Tom Cochran argues that exaggeration is an expected part of campaigning.
“Hyperbole is the bedrock of political speech,” said Cochran, a partner at 720 Strategies. “The fear of losing something is also a great motivator to get to the polls. Social Security and Medicare will absolutely be under threat. Biden and the Democrats need to remind the general public of this.”
Given that Scott himself has said he doesn’t want to sunset Social Security and Medicare, it’s extremely unlikely that GOPers would have the votes to take such action. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called Scott’s proposal a nonstarter, and Biden would have veto power if such a bill did clear Congress.
Republicans are focusing their own midterm messaging on inflation and the economy, along with crime and illegal immigration. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who will become House speaker if the GOP takes over, has accused Democrats of running the economy “into the ground,” contrasting that with Republicans who offer “a new direction that gets our country back on track.”
Polls indicate that the public favors the GOP when it comes to economic issues. An ABC News-Ipsos poll released last week shows that respondents prefer Republicans (36%) over Democrats (21%) to deal with inflation.
Biden’s overall job approval is at 43.1%, per the RealClearPolitics average, which is fairly low, but his approval on the economy is even lower, just 38.9%, against 58% who disapprove.
Bill Hoagland, senior vice president with the Bipartisan Policy Center, said there’s no threat of any chopping block, but that reform efforts could become entrenched in the new Congress.
“Republicans are likely to look at ways to ensure that the Social Security and Medicare HI (hospital insurance) Trust Fund do not deplete their resources,” he said. “That will require reforms.”
But failure to reform the programs could be problematic too, Hoagland added: If they deplete their reserves then benefits will be cut.
A major funding fight in the next Congress could lead to conflicts up to and including a government shutdown, which famously happened after Republicans took control of both chambers under a Democratic president in 1995.
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Voters will decide which side they believe on Nov. 8. Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the conservative advocacy group Job Creators Network, predicted that they’ll reject Biden’s warnings.
“Republican leader McCarthy’s Commitment to America plan clearly states that to support Americans, Republicans will ‘protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare and reduce our debt,” Ortiz said. “But since Biden and the Democrats have no substantive reason to encourage people to vote blue, they are left will no alternative but to lie. This is the same failed tactic used in 2016’s presidential election and now, again, as a desperate push to gaslight Americans before the coming midterms.”
