There are a number of data points indicating broad gains for Republicans in Florida this midterm cycle, including a huge 9-to-1 advantage when it comes to registering new voters in the months leading up to Nov. 8.
As of Friday, there were more than 5.28 million registered Republicans in Florida compared to 4.97 million Democrats. Those numbers represent 86,376 more Republicans than those registered to vote in the August primary, compared to an increase of just 9,830 Democrats across the same time frame.
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Among other notable statistics, Republicans have overtaken Democrats in terms of mail and early votes cast. Democrats held a significant lead in early voting just five days prior and would likely need to retake that early voting lead heading into Election Day, where Republicans traditionally turnout in higher numbers, to be competitive.
The data are positive signs for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who hope to hold off challenges in their respective races against Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) and Charlie Crist (D-FL). They also indicate that the state is steadily trending away from “swing” status.
“It might be time to consider Florida, if not a red state, than a red-leaning state,” Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “If you’re just being factual, until the Democrats start winning races statewide with some degree of regularity, it’s hard to call it a battleground state.”
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“Democrats lost this election when they lost their voter registration advantage,” Democratic strategist Sean Phillippi added. “Republicans have been winning elections at a good clip for the last decade — and that’s when Democrats had a voter registration advantage.”
