Democrats are betting affordability messaging and Trump’s sagging approval numbers can help the party flip at least one chamber of Congress in November despite facing a significant fundraising deficit.
MAGA Inc., a super PAC aligned with Trump, ended 2025 with $304 million cash on hand, a staggering sum for a president who is constitutionally barred from running for president in 2028. Although the super PAC has not publicly announced its specific plans on how to boost Republican candidates running for office this year, the money could help the GOP defy history.
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The Supreme Court could also add to Democratic woes if it strikes down federal law barring political parties from coordinating with individual candidates on campaign advertising.
But despite the steep money gaps, Democrats, who have homed in on the continued economic pain the average family is enduring as part of their off-year campaign strategies, are hoping that messaging on pocketbook issues can overcome their financial problems in 2026.
“As long as Democrats focus on bringing prices down and criticizing Trump for his failed promise to bring prices down on day one of the second administration, as long as we keep focused on that message and get our voters out, we’ll do fine in the midterm elections,” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist. “I’ll take the enthusiasm over money any day.”
Fundraising for individual candidates is more spread across the board. An analysis by OpenSecrets showed Republicans have the financial advantage in competitive House seats, while Democrats have the financial advantage in key Senate races.
“When you look at the party numbers, they’re not favorable to Democrats. But if you look at what candidates and individuals are raising, somebody like James Talarico just raised something like over $7 million,” said Kaivan Shroff, a 2024 delegate for former Vice President Kamala Harris. “And that’s just the primary, from a lot of a high number of different donors, which matters a lot too.”
Talarico raised more than $7.4 million in the first six weeks of 2026 in his Texas Senate primary race against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). He has a $1.5 million cash-on-hand advantage against Crockett. Democrats are hoping that an intense GOP primary battle between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), and state attorney general Ken Paxton could pave the way for the party to flip the seat blue.
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Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) raised $43 million in 2025 in his reelection battle this year and ended the year with more than $25 million cash on hand. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is the leading fundraiser in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Cooper has raised $17.6 million since he announced his campaign last July and has $12.4 million cash on hand, compared to former RNC chairman Michael Whatley, who has raised about 5.2 million in 2025 and has $3.7 million cash on hand.
The national Democrats have gone viral and fundraised off of attacking Trump for abandoning his 2024 campaign of lowering the prices of groceries, gas, and housing costs while linking him to the disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
That populist momentum has been building for Democrats as energy prices have surged, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have raised prices, and layoffs across the federal government and other industries have spread.
“We were told that MAGA was for working-class Americans. But this is a government of, by, and for the ultra-rich. It is the wealthiest Cabinet ever,” Ossoff said about the Trump administration’s wealth in a Saturday rally.
“They are the elites they pretend to hate,” he continued.
But for Democrats who are not nationally well-known, fundraising is an uphill climb. “I’ve raised $1 million in six months. The majority from Arkansas,” Hallie Shoffner, a Senate candidate running in the Democratic primary to challenge Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK), in a call with reporters in a press call. “My local donors are getting tapped out.”
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“I’m only the second statewide candidate in a decade to even raise more than a million dollars. More often, local candidates with deep community ties like me, they are taking on well-funded incumbents without the tools to compete,” she continued.
Shoffner did point out that DNC chairman Ken Martin and the Association of State Democratic Committees met in Arkansas last year, where they announced the committee would send $1 million every month to state parties, including $22,500 a month to the Arkansas Democratic Party.
“We have seen the DNC fingerprints on some of these special elections in the south, Mississippi and Texas. But even so, we are being outraised 10-to-one,” said Shoffner. “While we have a ton of enthusiasm on the ground, we will hit a wall when it comes to our fundraising from within the state, and that is where we feel like national folks should step in.”
But Democrats are pointing to their overperformance in off-year elections and historical precedent that the party in control of the House tends to suffer during midterm elections as an indication that the party will retake control of Congress from the GOP.
Louisiana Democratic candidate Chasity Verret Martinez easily defeated Republican opponent Brad Daigle by 24 points last week after Trump last won the Louisiana House District 60 by 13 points. Texas Democrat Na’Cole Thompson also defeated two Republican-aligned opponents by over 20 points to become the first-ever black mayor of Leander, Texas, a city that Trump previously won by four points. Before that, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the special election for Texas Senate District 9 in the Fort Worth area by outperforming Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Leigh Wambsganss.
“Across the country, Democrats continue to win or overperform in communities that Trump won in 2024,” Martin said in a statement. “On Saturday night, Democrats notched two more historic victories, showing that even in the Deep South, Democrats are organizing and competing everywhere. Congratulations to Rep.-elect Martinez and Mayor-elect Thompson — two leaders who will put working families first and make life more affordable. Democrats will continue to compete and win everywhere as we head towards the midterms.”
Since Trump’s second term, Democrats have now won or overperformed in 244 of 274 key elections, according to the DNC.
“We have the cost-of-living issue to our advantage,” Bannon, the Democratic strategist, bragged. “I think Trump’s job rating for inflation is something close to 30 points underwater right now. So as long as Democrats stay focused, don’t get distracted and talk about Donald Trump’s sales promise to bring inflation down will be fine.”
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Currently, polling shows Democrats with an advantage over the GOP headed into the midterms. Democrats led Republicans 44% to 38% among registered voters for whom they would vote if elections for Congress were being held today, according to a recent Economist/YouGov poll. Democrats have a five-point edge over the GOP on a generic ballot 2026, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month. But among those who were deeply motivated to vote, that advantage increases to 16 points.
“They do not have the support of the people. They’re losing every special election that we have, their polling numbers are absolutely in the tank,” said Randy Jones, a Democratic campaign veteran, about the GOP. “The only thing they can possibly do is throw millions of dollars to try and convince the working people of the United States of America that billionaire policy is better for them than the Democratic policy. Because right now, the only policy the RNC has is the policy of billionaires and oligarchs, and that’s a fact.”
Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall, according to a Pew Research Center poll released late last month. Even as Trump has started hitting the trail to tout his administration’s work on affordability, 47% of Americans said the president is mostly focusing on the wrong priorities, according to a January AP-NORC poll.
“Campaigns matter, candidates matter. But really, to a high degree, a lot of the stuff is already going to be predetermined for midterms based on Trump’s record on popularity,” said Shroff.
“I do really think there’s a lot of folks who are probably sitting on the idea that, you know, an anti-incumbent wave is coming, and we’re going to ride it,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns. “My challenge to Democrats is will they do something different? Are they going to invest outside of ‘what the data tells them?’ And I don’t think any of that has changed at all.”
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Ceraso pointed to the tough time southern Democrats have faced in trying to reach out to new donors with deeper pockets, despite the recent wins they have garnered, and pushed for party members to share their donor lists with candidates.
“I think Democrats can not feel such a need to gatekeep,” he said. “We’re a gatekeeping party. I’m not saying Republicans aren’t, but I think we’re a gatekeeping party.”
