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November 7, 2022
Per NBC News, which is tracking mail-in and early voting counts in all fifty states, the Democrats are in deep trouble. In most competitive states the lopsided advantages that Democrats enjoyed in mail-in balloting and early voting in the 2020 elections are no longer lopsided. That means come Election Day, when Republicans and GOP-leaning independents typically cast ballots, the “Red Wave” election that many anticipate will roll across America like a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.
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The major concern about the 2022 midterm elections for Republicans is that a red wave would be dashed against the rocks of early voting. Early voting in 2020 proved a decisive advantage for Democrats, giving them the edge in key contests, like the Trump-Biden presidential matchup.
Yes, there was fraud that evidently tipped the scales in favor of old, addled Joe Biden in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But early voting permitted Democrats the time to organize and round up votes from their constituencies. Other than California, where vote harvesting is absurdly legal, in other states, where harvesting isn’t legal, Democrats “gathered up” votes, even if they stayed — just barely — on the right side of the law.
But let’s take a quick look at mail-in and early voting tallies for the key states just mentioned and some others. Other than Pennsylvania, which is worrisome and needs to remain on our watch list, Democrats are failing to gain the overwhelming edge they enjoyed two short years ago.
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Here’s a look at the numbers (as of November 4), compliments of NBC News:
Percentage breakdown by party in this order: Democrat-Republican-independent:
Georgia: 49-42-9
Pennsylvania: 70-21-9 (Red Flag)
Wisconsin: 37-34-29
Arizona: 39-31-30
North Carolina: 39-31-30
New York: 58-24-18
Wash State: 58-30-12
New Mexico: 53-34-13
New Hampshire: 45-30-25
Michigan: 50-28-22
In examining the above percentages, it’s important to collapse the Republican and independent vote. Why? Because we know that Republican voters will break overwhelming for GOP candidates. We know, too, that independent voters are breaking strongly for Republicans. White suburban women are swinging to the GOP by a huge 15% margin, per a Wall Street Journal poll. Democrats have lost their 2020 advantage among this key cohort.
We also know that Democrats are heavily relying on mail-in and early voting to win. They’ll surely see a significant drop off in voting on Election Day, as they did in 2020.
The Democrat percentages stated earlier are intriguing in that more Democrats — albeit still a smaller percentage — may decide to cast their ballots for Republicans, at least in terms of splitting their tickets.
Otherwise, in the early and mail-in voting arena, Republicans are slugging it out toe-to-toe with Democrats.
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In Georgia, 51% of mail-in and early voters are Republicans and independents. Wisconsin: 63%. Arizona: 61%. North Carolina: 61%. New Hampshire: 55%.
Those numbers, respectively, bode well for Herschel Walker, Ron Johnson, Tim Michaels (Wisconsin GOP gubernatorial nominee), Kari Lake and Blake Masters, Ted Budd, and Don Bolduc.
In New Mexico, where Ron Ronchetti is challenging the corrupt Michelle Lujan Grisham for governor, an upset is in the making. — 47% of Republicans and independents are casting ballots early.
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon is aiming to unseat the incompetent and failed Gretchen Whitmer. There, Republicans/independents are matching Democrats in early votes (50-50). Again, Election Day voting should see a drop-off in Democrat voters and spikes in GOP and independent ballots cast.
New York State (Lee Zeldin vs. Kathy Hochul) and Washington State (Tiffany Smiley vs. Patty Murray) are tougher calls, but both contests are competitive and results are likely to be close.
Pennsylvania is where Democrats have a huge advantage in early and mail-in ballot voting, doubtlessly driven by Democrat machine efforts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, principally.
It’s conceivable that stroke-impaired, crazy left-winger John Fetterman could slip by Dr. Mehmet Oz. But is this a winnable contest for Oz? You bet, if Republicans and independents turn out in droves on Election Day. The Pennsylvania Republican Party damn well better have fearless and trained poll watchers in key precincts and jurisdictions and bevvies of lawyers ready to aggressively challenge irregularities, which are fully expected in Democrat redoubts.
Why else do we know that Republicans are poised to roll up Democrats this Tuesday?
All the underlying numbers are dramatically cutting against Democrats. The trends have been in place for months.
Real Clear Politics averages: Right track/wrong track (42% margin wrong), Generic ballot (+2.8%, GOP, though Rasmussen and Trafalgar show GOP advantages, +5% and +6%, respectively), Biden’s job performance (-12.6%).
Biden’s handling of critical single issues — all are stunningly cutting against Democrats. Economy: -19.8%. Immigration (Border): -24.4%. Inflation: -27%
Add to that Hispanics, who appear to be shifting to Republicans (40%), and even black voters (21%) in an October 27 USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
Moreover, factor in that mainline polls are typically underestimating Republican strength by as much as 5%.
It’s conceivable that the 2022-24 elections may prove more historic than the 1918-20 elections that saw Republicans roll up a combined 16 U.S. Senate seats and 87 U.S. House seats, while electing Warren G. Harding in an epic landslide in 1920.
But this series of elections may grant the GOP control for not just a decade, but a generation. We can’t say now with certainty, but the distinct, sweet smell of an historic realignment is in the air.
Yet, let’s not take anything for granted. If you haven’t voted, it’s imperative: show up at your polling place on Tuesday and cast your ballot. Make sure family and friends vote, too. The country is at a crossroads. These elections are the most consequential in most of our lifetimes.
J. Robert Smith can be found regularly at Gab @JRobertSmith. He also blogs at Flyover.
Image: Library of Congress
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