Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russian leader Vladimir Putin of starting World War III when he launched the full-scale invasion almost exactly four years ago and that he will not stop on his own.
Tuesday marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of its smaller neighbor in what has become the largest and most deadly land war in Europe since the end of World War II.
“I believe that Putin has already started it,” Zelensky told the BBC in an interview, referencing the next world war. “The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him. … Putin will not stop at Ukraine.”
Even though the United States has brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine, a lack of progress in those negotiations means the war will be entering its fifth year without a clear, viable end in sight. The Trump administration has pushed for a negotiated end to the conflict, whereas it was the previous administration’s policy to prioritize Ukraine’s defense over forcing it to make concessions to end the war.
Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, while the current combined casualty rates indicate the total casualty count could reach 2 million by this spring, and as many as 325,000 troops killed, according to a January report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Comparatively, Ukraine’s military is believed to have suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities from February 2022 through the end of 2025, per the report.
Despite the much higher casualty and fatality counts, Putin has not shown an interest in ending the war, instead prioritizing limited battlefield victories in exchange for those tallies.
To date, Russia is occupying roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, though most experts at the start of the full-scale invasion thought Russia’s military would be able to overthrow the Zelensky government and install a more pro-Russian replacement in a matter of weeks. After being repelled by Ukraine’s rag-tag military in the early stages of the war, Russia shifted its war objectives to trying to conquer the eastern Ukrainian territory known as the Donbas.
Even after multiple years of trying to capture the Donbas, which consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Russian forces currently hold almost the entirety of Luhansk, while the Ukrainian military has managed to retain control over approximately 20% of the territory in Donetsk.
ORDINARY UKRAINIANS SUFFER WITHOUT NEGOTIATION BREAKTHROUGHS AS FOUR-YEAR ANNIVERSARY APPROACHES
Russia has simultaneously also carried out long-range attacks far from the front lines, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid a brutal winter to try and inflict as much pain on the population as possible.
While Russia’s military is currently focused on eastern Ukraine, there are officials in the U.S. and Europe who believe Putin has his sights set on much bigger goals in Europe, not all of which are military specific.
Even if Ukraine agrees to give up the Donbas, which Zelensky has said he wouldn’t, Russia has also demanded additional Ukrainian concessions that would leave them vulnerable to a new Russian attack at the time and place of their choosing.
No Western militaries have gotten directly involved in the conflict, only supporting them by providing military equipment for Ukraine’s Armed Forces to use, while Russia has sought assistance from both North Korea and Iran for support.
Putin, for his part, honored Russia’s Defender of the Fatherland Day by visiting the Tomb of the Unknown Soldiers in Moscow on Monday, a day ahead of the anniversary.
