California’s gubernatorial race is beginning to show its first signs of shape for Democrats, though a new poll suggests the crowded contest is more competitive and unpredictable than many expected.
Three Democrats — former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and billionaire Tom Steyer — and two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — are within 4 percentage points of one another, according to the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California survey. All five candidates are also within the 3.9% margin of error heading into the June primary, underscoring how unsettled the race remains.
There are more than a dozen candidates in the race. Hilton drew 14% of likely voters. Porter followed at 13%, Bianco at 12%, Swalwell at 11%, and Steyer at 10%, according to the poll, which was conducted of 1,657 California residents between Feb. 3 and Feb. 11. Ten percent of voters said they didn’t know who they’d vote for, while 30% spread their support among the other candidates.
The results complicate early assumptions that a single Democratic front-runner would have emerged by now in the deep blue state. Instead, the dynamics point to a fractured field, with name recognition, ideological lane-splitting, and a primary in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to November’s general election, which could result in a Republican advancing.
“Three months out from the June primary, the top two slots in the gubernatorial race are up for grabs,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s survey director, said in a statement. “Voters feel hammered by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them.”
Swalwell and Steyer joined the race late last year, months after Porter, Bianco, and Hilton had already launched their campaigns. Since entering, Swalwell has leaned on his national profile in Congress as a prominent critic of President Donald Trump, while Steyer has relied on his personal fortune, pouring more than $27 million into blanketing the airwaves with ads.
“When [Swalwell and Steyer] entered the race, support for two Democrats declined: Katie Porter’s support declined, and Xavier Becerra’s support declined,” Baldassare said. “That’s where the movement has been.”
Despite the clog at the top, the new survey shows the race splitting into two clear groups. The top five candidates each recorded double-digit support, peaking in the low teens, while a group of other Democratic candidates trailed with 5% or less.
Over the weekend, none of the state’s Democratic gubernatorial candidates secured the state party’s highly coveted endorsement at the state convention, falling well short of the 60% threshold.
NO CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE SECURES ENDORSEMENT IN GOVERNOR’S RACE
Eight of the nine Democratic candidates vying for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) seat made their pitches to thousands of delegates at the California Democratic Party convention in San Francisco, but failed to get the support of the 3,500 delegates needed for an endorsement.
The Washington Examiner reached out to the campaigns of some top-tier candidates, who said more high-profile endorsements were expected in the coming days and that these endorsements could further distinguish the candidates.
