Welcome to Tuesday’s Washington Secrets. We ask what happens when you ask people whether they recognize eight possible contenders for the next president of the United States. The result? Confusion. And why one of Donald Trump’s vice presidents is making the case for war in Iran. And it’s not the one you are thinking of …
He may be governor of a critical swing state, the author of a bestselling book, and one of the hottest names in the hypothetical Democratic presidential field for 2028.
But a new poll suggests Josh Shapiro has a major problem if he is to run for the White House. Only 17% of voters can recognize him from his photograph.
That is so low that Secrets wonders if people in his own home know who he is.
The results aren’t much better for other leading 2028 contenders. A third of voters couldn’t recognize JD Vance, who is not just a possible 2028 runner but the CURRENT VICE PRESIDENT!
To test recognizability, J.L. Partners asked 1,000 registered voters to view eight photographs and name the politician in each.
Several respondents thought Shapiro was House Speaker Mike Johnson, according to results shared with Secrets. And such was the governor’s anonymity, one even suggested he was “Deep Throat from Watergate,” the very personification of low profile.
Shapiro has yet to announce a presidential run but is making all the right moves. He has just published a memoir and plans to make a splash during campaigning for the midterm elections, when he is also up for reelection, catapulting him toward the nomination.
It will need to be a big splash, but the results of the poll are sobering for all involved.
“The main takeaway is just how humbling it is to be a politician,” said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners. “Most people are not taking any notice of you unless you are in the major leagues — meaning literally, the president, vice president, or having [previosuly] run for president.”
These are the results:
Kamala Harris — 81%
Harris, a national figure for the four years of her vice presidency, followed by a disastrous if brief run for president, tops the list. Results were polarized. “A big mistake we missed,” or “she should be president,” according to different respondents. A surprising number thought she was named after the capital of Uganda. Melania Trump might not be too happy either: One respondent said simply “Trump’s wife.”
JD Vance — 66%
Vance does much better than his likely rivals for the 2028 GOP nomination, showing the importance of holding national office, even if it still means that a third of registered voters cannot recognize their vice president. One potentially over-eager respondent thought Vance was Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA). One thought he was Mike Pence, one Vladimir Putin. There were also a few JD Moores and a JD Stance, which were recorded as pretty much correct answers.
Marco Rubio — 44%
If you thought the Vance figure was low, well, less than half could name the Secretary of State, and the chief representative of the U.S. on the world stage. One respondent simply called Rubio “beautiful.” A handful thought he was Ted Cruz. One said Beto O’Rourke, the once and former future future of the Democratic Party, while a few plumped for Elon Musk. And some struggled with the spelling. “Mark’O Rubeo” being the pick.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 43%
Now we get to the business end of the Democratic scrap. Perhaps AOC’s canny media operation means she is doing pretty well for a member of the House of Representatives. That score is not nothing. But still, 30 people thought her name was Kamala Harris, and there was a wide range of inaccurate spellings, including Alexandria Occasion Cortez, which is how Secrets will refer to her in all future stories.
Gavin Newsom — 41%
Predictably, the governor of California, who occupies a special place in conservative brains, attracted plenty of “Newscums”. Someone put Putin; a few went with Pete Buttigieg; plenty spelled his name incorrectly; and someone else figured he looked like “a shady used car salesman.” Secrets couldn’t possibly comment.
Ted Cruz — 40%
Cruz is on maneuvers for 2028, staking out a position as a traditional conservative. Maybe that is why one respondent thought he was Dan Quayle, George H.W. Bush’s vice president. But there is bad news even among those who correctly recognized the senator from Texas. A fair few people remembered his run to the sun during 2021’s bitter winter storm, naming him Cancun Cruz, Escape to Mexico Ted Cruz, and Teddy Cancun.
Ron DeSantis — 30%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) did not exactly set the world on fire with his 2024 run for president, so maybe it’s for the best that 70% of voters have no idea who he is. Some 20 people confidently said he was Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). And one person said he was Tom Steyer, perhaps remembering how in 2018 the billionaire Democratic donor bankrolled a liberal candidate for governor, knocking out potentially stronger rivals, and letting DeSantis in by the narrowest of margins.
Josh Shapiro — 17%
One respondent suggested he was Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), who is at least a governor of a nearby state, if not exactly a Shapiro lookalike. Shapiro’s office did not respond to questions asking whether the governor was ever turned away by security at his official residence.
Mike Pence to the rescue
The Trump administration has a new cheerleader for its strikes on Iran.
“After 47 years of tyranny, terrorism, and nuclear brinkmanship, justice is finally being served to the mullahs in Tehran,” he wrote for the Washington Examiner, two days after bombs began raining down.
The former senior administration official went on CNN to praise President Donald Trump for making “the right call.”
And he rounded out his week on Fox News, saying, “It has been a nearly flawless execution.”
The name of the booster? Mike Pence.
But whisper it in MAGAworld, where the likes of Tucker Carlson are opposed to the conflict and even JD Vance has been quieter than usual.
“Who?” said a former White House official when asked whether they welcomed Pence’s contribution.
After all, Trump fell out with his vice president spectacularly at the end of his first term. Pence refused to throw out electoral votes as Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2024 presidential election.
Since then, he has been one of the few high-profile Republicans willing to criticize the president. He called Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs as “the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history,” and condemned the appointment of abortion-rights supporter RFK Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
He warned Trump that Vladimir Putin was not interested in peace in Ukraine, and his think tank said the administration was “walking away” from its tough-on-China approach of the first term.
Yet, it is not surprising that Pence has gone to bat for Trump on Iran, according to Republican strategist Ron Bonjean.
“On the surface, it looks like the world is upside down when Pence is agreeing with Trump,” he said. “But it shows you how serious the issue is when Pence is praising Trump, and that something had to be done on Iran, which Pence has been wanting to do for a long time.”
Lunchtime reading
Frederick Vreeland, spy and diplomat who prepared JFK for his historic “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech: While the famous line has been credited to a number of people, notably the presidential speechwriter Ted Sorensen and the presidential interpreter Robert Lochner, who offered Kennedy last-minute phonetic instruction, Vreeland’s own story is a credible one.
Iran war’s oil shock fuels GOP political anxiety: Trump won the 2024 election by promising to bring prices down and avoid foreign wars. Now his party prepares for midterm elections with gas prices on the rise, fueled by the war in Iran.
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