It’s finally firing season for President Donald Trump after months of relative quiet on the personnel front compared to his turbulent first term.
Attorney General Pam Bondi is following former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem out the door, raising speculation about who might be next with the midterm elections fast approaching.
If the president wants to make changes, in many cases, he will need to do so while Republicans still have a healthy majority in the Senate.
Trump was known for his “You’re fired!” catchphrase during his reality TV days and ran through Cabinet secretaries, White House chiefs of staff, press secretaries, and other underlings during his first four years in office from 2017 to 2021.
Anthony Scaramucci set the standard for brevity of service when he lasted fewer than a dozen days — there is some dispute over whether the correct number is 10 or 11 — as Trump’s White House communications director. Other short-lived appointees’ tenures were subsequently measured in “Scaramuccis.”
But many of Trump’s first-term appointees were part of an arranged marriage with either the Republican establishment or the preexisting conservative movement. Trump chose more of his second-term personnel due to personal loyalty, and a decade of MAGA has made populists, nationalists, and loyalists more politically experienced and qualified for government service than during his first term.
A key example is Vice President JD Vance, who, as a convert on Trump, is considered more ideologically populist than the president and former Vice President Mike Pence, a throwback to Reaganism who has spent much of Trump’s second term fighting the populist shift in the Republican Party.
Trump has stood by War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. through numerous controversies. He was slow to sack Noem despite multiple scandals and discontent within her department, as well as Bondi when the Epstein files saga careened out of control. Last year’s Vanity Fair profile was barely a speedbump for White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. Trump is so far rebuffing rumors that Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard could be next, both through spokespeople and in his own voice.
There aren’t even many rumors buzzing about Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who is under investigation for an alleged inappropriate relationship and her use of taxpayer funds.
Even the rift with Elon Musk came after the former DOGE chief’s special government employee contract was allowed to expire, with Trump politely thanking him for his service in the Oval Office. Trump and Musk have since at least partially reconciled.
This time around, loyalty in Trumpworld is a two-way street. The president has not been as quick to fire, and when he has, he has let people down from their duties far more gently. Noem was transferred to another, lesser job within the administration. Michael Waltz was moved from national security adviser to ambassador to the United Nations, the latter a lower-ranking position in practice but one that required Senate confirmation, unlike his previous role.
In addition to mutual loyalty, it has been politically advantageous to keep everyone inside the tent. Some of the people Trump fired in his first term emerged as his fiercest critics and painted an unflattering picture of the administration.
But the political incentives could soon change. While things could improve if the economy rebounds or the Iran war ends, at the moment, the GOP’s midterm election prospects look bleak. If Republicans lose control of the Senate, or even wind up with a narrower majority of 50 or 51 seats compared to the current 53, it will be harder for Trump to replace subordinates whose jobs require the chamber’s approval. (This won’t affect the senior White House staff positions.)
The least cooperative Senate Republicans could obtain veto power over Trump’s picks. Besides Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), Democrats seem increasingly unwilling to back Trump on much of anything. At a minimum, confirmation hearings could become more contentious.
TRUMP FIRES ATTORNEY GENERAL PAM BONDI
By contrast, new Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who had been an Oklahoma Republican senator, was rapidly confirmed to take Noem’s slot.
If there are any other Cabinet-level shake-ups Trump would like to see happen, he would be better off doing it now rather than after November.
