President Donald Trump weighed in with a surprise Kentucky Derby weekend endorsement for Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) in his Senate race last Friday, weighing in on and shaking up the Senate race just weeks before voters took to the polls.
Kentucky was one of the final red states with a competitive Senate Republican primary that Trump had not weighed in with an endorsement on. His push for Barr now leaves Texas and Georgia as the two main red states without a Trump endorsement.
In Texas, Trump technically gave his support to all three GOP candidates — Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) — before the March 3 primary, with Cornyn and Paxton now in a runoff. But in Georgia, Trump has remained silent on the Senate primary, leaving MAGA-base voters looking for clear guidance from Trump on where to place their ballots with no luck.
Peach State Republican voters will choose between three front-running Senate candidates on the May 19 primary ballot: Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley. Early voting began in late April, with Georgians showing up in record numbers across the state.
The fact that Trump, who has long been the kingmaker swinging major endorsement power within the GOP, has chosen to stay out of the Georgia Senate race rings interesting for several reasons. He chose to endorse in the state’s gubernatorial primary; he has backed Senate candidates in the state in the past, and just chose to back Barr in a similar, three-candidate primary scenario.
The Washington Examiner spoke with University of Georgia political science professor Trey Hood, an elections expert and the author of the 2023 article “How Much is a Trump Endorsement Worth?”, about how the absence of a Trump endorsement has affected the Senate GOP primary in the state. Hood opined that the non-endorsement could have come down to the open-endedness of who could win.
“I think it’s probably because … they can’t tell who’s going to win,” Hood said. “Trump especially doesn’t want to endorse a loser.”
Collins has led in most of the polling, but many voters are undecided. Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R-GA) bullish advocacy for his pick to win, Dooley, could boost Dooley’s profile come Election Day, with recent polling suggesting slight shifts in the field even within the early voting period.
“It’s still close. Collins is usually polling out ahead, but, there’s, at least in the polls, a whole lot of undecideds,” Hood said.
In many races where Trump has not cast his endorsement, the candidates have turned to trying to prove, on their own, their loyalty to Trump and Trump’s agenda. This happened in Kentucky, ahead of Trump’s endorsement of Barr, where the race had essentially become a Trump-off between Barr, businessman Nate Morris, and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron as they waited to see if Trump would weigh in.
Hood explained to the Washington Examiner the effect that Trump’s decision to not endorse so far in Georgia has had on the candidates’ behavior. He explained that Collins and Carter have mainly competed to be the most Trump-aligned candidate, while Dooley’s behavior has looked a bit different, even though, the three candidates have each all openly vied for the president’s endorsement.
“Two of them, Collins and Carter, have been falling all over themselves to try to be the best MAGA candidate possible. Derek Dooley’s a little bit different; he’s sort of the Kemp-appointee,” Hood said.
Hood told the Washington Examiner that as Kemp’s pick to face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in the general election, Dooley has acted as if he’s trying to “straddle the fence a little bit” between Kemp and Trump, opting instead to talk about how he is a political outsider. Kemp and Trump have had quite the up-and-down relationship, with their ties souring in 2020 over Trump’s loss in Georgia, then becoming strategically aligned once again in 2024, as Trump flipped the state and won.
Carter and Collins have each made Trump part of their central messaging. Carter has marketed himself as a “MAGA Warrior,” referencing a rally speech Trump made in which the President referred to Carter as a “warrior” and “great guy.” Carter also made the front image of his website a photo with Trump.
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Collins’s campaign, whose slogan is “Georgia’s Conservative Workforce,” has a video pinned at the top of his social media pages with Trump calling him a leader who has “got a future” with “the look” and “great hair.”
“I’m not gonna waste your time. I’m a conservative, pro-life, pro-gun, pro-Trump, God-fearing, truck-driving outsider,” Collins said in his campaign announcement video, followed by clips of Trump and Vice President JD Vance praising his work in the House.
Dooley’s most recent video campaign ad pins himself as a political outsider, while he talks about how he would work with Trump, for the citizens of Georgia.
“They need accountability: term limits, ban stock trading, end these government shutdowns,” Dooley said of sitting Senators to a crowd of voters. “Up there, I’m going to work with President Trump, but for you.”
Trump has steered clear of an endorsement in the Senate primary despite Kemp’s decision to weigh in and his own decision to weigh in on the state’s gubernatorial race. Trump officially endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R-GA) in the 2026 primary race for governor, despite Jones’s challenge from another MAGA-hardliner, businessman Rick Jackson.
Georgia will be a fascinating state to watch for pundits when its primary election returns roll in on Tuesday, May 19, given the crowded GOP primaries and endorsement dynamics at play. Given that early voting has already begun in the Peach State – it had not begun in Kentucky when Trump endorsed Barr – it’s unlikely that Trump would weigh in anymore before primary election day, but not impossible.
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In the latest Quantus Insights poll, Collins maintained his lead with 32.6% support, while Dooley has 22.5% and Carter had 13.7%. According to the same poll, 28.6% of voters were still undecided.
In the fundraising game, Carter is leading the pack with $3.7 million in cash on hand, while Dooley has about $2.2 million and Collins has about $2.1 million in cash on hand.
