Iowa voters head to the polls Tuesday for primary elections that have become one of Democrats’ key focuses in their bid to claw back power in a state that once helped launch former President Barack Obama to the White House but has since become a Republican stronghold.
While Republicans still hold an advantage in Iowa, Democrats see openings in a competitive governor’s race, an open Senate seat, and two battleground congressional districts that could help determine control of Congress next year.
Iowa backed Obama in both 2008 and 2012 before swinging sharply to the right in the Trump era. President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, underscoring how difficult a statewide comeback could be for Democrats.
Primaries in Iowa are closed, meaning voters must declare a political party affiliation in order to vote, but they can change their affiliation on the day of the primary. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time on election day. Candidates must secure at least 35% of the vote to avoid a runoff election.
Here are the races to watch:
An open Senate seat gives Democrats hope
Iowa’s Senate race is drawing national attention after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) decided not to seek reelection, opening a rare statewide opportunity for Democrats.
The Cook Political Report rated the race “Likely R” as the GOP bolsters Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), who has the backing of Trump. Hinson will need to win 35% of the vote over former state Sen. Jim Carlin, who is also seeking the GOP candidacy, to avoid the decision being sent to a party convention on June 13, according to state law.
Trump’s support has proven its worth in recent elections, making Hinson the more-than-likely Republican candidate in the general election.
Democrats believe an open seat gives them their best chance in years to compete statewide. But first, the party must decide what kind of candidate they want to put up against Hinson, who has a reputation as a disciplined communicator.
Competing in a red state, the Democratic primary has largely become a debate over electability. National Democrats have increasingly rallied behind Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist and wheelchair basketball champion from Council Bluffs who has represented a district Trump carried three times.
VoteVets poured nearly $10 million into boosting Turek, arguing his biography appeals to working-class voters, who could help Democrats reconnect with independents and disaffected Republicans in rural Iowa.
Turek, who was born with spina bifida tied to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange, has campaigned on his upbringing in a blue-collar community and has secured backing from former Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, the last Democrat to represent Iowa in the Senate.
His chief rival, Democratic state Sen. Zach Wahls, has framed himself as an anti-establishment candidate, and had an early lead in the polls before Turek’s outside boost. He first gained national attention as a teenager advocating for same-sex marriage as the son of two mothers and has argued Democrats can still compete in red states without relying on outside spending.
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Wahls has promised he would not vote for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for another term as the party leader and has the support of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
The split has exposed a broader Democratic debate: whether red-state Democrats are better served nominating centrist candidates viewed as more competitive in Trump country or progressive-backed candidates with a stronger appeal to the party’s base that position themselves as outsiders to the party establishment.
Two battleground House races top the list
Democrats’ best congressional opportunities are in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd districts, both rated tossups by the Cook Political Report and viewed as critical to any effort to retake the House.
In eastern Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mariannett Miller-Meeks (R-IA) again faces a challenging election after surviving one of the closest House races in the country in 2024, narrowly defeating Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan even as Trump carried the district by about 7 points.
Miller-Meeks has faced persistent friction with parts of the Republican base over votes backing a Jan. 6 commission and same-sex marriage, making her politically vulnerable from both the right and center. Bohannan is seeking a rematch in a district Democrats believe is winnable without Trump on the ballot.
In the Des Moines-based 3rd District, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) is also defending a competitive seat after winning reelection by about 4 points in 2024.
Democrats view the district as one of their clearest pickup opportunities, with Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott emerging as the likely Democratic nominee after outraising rivals and building institutional support.
The Cook Political Report shifted the race to a toss-up earlier this year, citing Iowa Republicans’ more difficult political environment and a competitive governor’s race.
Elsewhere, Republicans remain favored.
Iowa’s open 2nd District, vacated by Hinson, leans Republican but could become competitive if Democrats benefit from strong turnout.
Trump has endorsed former Republican state Rep. Joe Mitchell, making him the GOP’s likely nominee. National Democrats have backed Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James, who has the strongest fundraising in the party’s primary. Still, James would have an uphill climb in the district, especially against a Trump-backed candidate.
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Northwestern Iowa’s 4th District, currently held by Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA), who is running for governor, is rated solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Chris McGowen, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president, is running unopposed for the GOP candidacy.
Three Democrats are seeking a spot in the general election, but are unlikely to succeed in the red stronghold. They are former Democratic state Rep. Dave Dawson, Ashley WolfTornabane, a stay-at-home mother who previously worked in education, and Stephanie Steiner, a retired nurse.
Governor’s race could test Democratic momentum
The governor’s mansion is one of Democrats’ biggest targets after Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) declined to seek reelection, creating Iowa’s first open governor’s race in two decades, as the state does not have term limits.
Democrats are rallying behind state Auditor Rob Sand, one of the few Democrats to consistently win statewide office in Iowa.
Republicans are competing with five candidates in the race, with the Cook Political Report pointing to Feenstra as the leading GOP candidate. Feenstra has a significant fundraising advantage in the race, not only compared to his GOP competitors but also with Sand.
The Cook Political Report rated the race as a toss-up, noting that Democrats have little room for error despite bolstering a candidate capable of garnering bipartisan support.
Sand has strong tools on his belt: He has a track record of targeting fraud, and his wife is the CEO of a 110-year-old family-run agricultural conglomerate. Her family has provided not only financial support for his campaign, but also a touchpoint with the state’s agriculture community.
For Democrats, the race is a test of whether frustration with Republican governance and the typical midterm backlash against the party in the White House can overcome Iowa’s rightward shift.
The GOP will need to put up a strong candidate to face Sand, who is running unopposed, which they could get in Feenstra, as the congressman has support from GOP insiders, including six-term Republican former Gov. Terry Branstad and Ernst.
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Trump has yet to endorse a Republican candidate in the gubernatorial race, but will likely do so after the primary.
Feenstra will need to garner 35% of the vote to secure his candidacy. His Republican competitors include state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Rep. Brad Sherman, former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, and investment executive Zach Lahn.
