Democrats’ chances of recapturing the House in the 2026 elections improved Thursday, as new ratings reflect the troubling political environment for Republicans.
Though an advantage in redistricting has insulated Republicans’ narrow majority, the party faces headwinds with President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, historical midterm trends for the party in the White House, and the cost-of-living concerns exacerbated by the Iran war.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted seven seats slightly toward Democrats, as the party eyes recapturing the House and blunting the last two years of the Trump administration.
Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL) is at risk of losing his seat after Republicans passed a new map after the Supreme Court gutted much of the Voting Rights Act, as his new district would have voted for Trump by 14 points in 2024.
While the Cook Political Report originally rated his seat on the new map “Solid R,” in part because of uncertainty whether Figures would seek reelection, they shifted it to “Likely R” after Figures announced he would run.
Two open seats shifted after Reps. Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Ashley Hinson (R-IA) vacated their seats to run for higher office. Mace’s district shifted from “Solid R” to “Likely R,” while Hinson’s shifted from “Likely R” to “Lean R.”
Rep. Max Miller’s (R-OH) race was moved from “Solid R” to “Likely R.” The Ohio congressman represents the northern area of the state, stretching up to Cleveland. In 2024, Trump won by 11 points, but Miller only won 51% of the vote in a split electorate that featured a Democrat and former Rep. Dennis Kucinich running as an independent. Miller has been bogged down by a handful of domestic abuse allegations in recent months, which the congressman has denied.
Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), who has also been plagued by scandal, has been neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, Jamie Ager, the grandson of a former congressman. While the district voted for Trump by 10 points, it is one of the few that shifted in favor of Democrats from 2020 to 2024. Edwards was accused of pursuing an affair with one of his staffers but has denied the allegations. Democrats are aggressively campaigning for that seat.
Rep. Brad Finstad’s (R-MN) seat shifted from “Solid R” to “Likely R,” a seat previously held by Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN). Since Republicans flipped the seat in 2018, it has steadily become more Republican, with Trump winning by 12 points in 2024. While Finstad won by 17 points in 2024, his Democratic challenger has countered his fundraising levels.
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Rep. Bill Huizenga’s (R-MI) Grand Rapids-area seat has become more competitive in recent years, prompting a shift from “Likely R” to “Lean R.” While Huizenga won by 12 points, Trump only carried the district by 6 points. Huizenga is likely to face Democrat Sean McCann, a well-funded state senator who recently released a poll showing him leading Huizenga.
Republicans still maintain the advantage in each of these seats, but the changes in traditionally red territory are another warning sign of a harrowing political environment for Republicans. None of the Republican incumbents is on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of vulnerable members.
