Whether congressional Republicans come around on the emerging deal to end the Iran war may hinge on whether the GOP base continues to trust President Donald Trump on the issue as his approach shifts from military force to diplomacy.
A split among rank-and-file Republican voters could embolden GOP lawmakers to stick to their own positions on the Iran talks, with many of them extremely wary of negotiating with the Iranian regime.
Polls taken after the war began showed Republicans and self-described MAGA supporters largely backing Trump, even as his media allies fractured between those who endorsed his hard line against Iran and others who wanted to hold him to his campaign promise to avoid new foreign wars.
Some Trump-friendly media voices, such as Tucker Carlson, became estranged from him over the decision to go to war in the first place. Others, such as Mark Levin, are now disenchanted with Trump’s decision to try to end the war by talking to the government of Iran.
But part of what kept Trump’s coalition together was that he offered a little something to various camps of supporters with a wide variety of foreign-policy views, ranging from the possibility of regime change in Iran to repeated assurances this wouldn’t be a forever war.
Trump would say that the war was already basically won, seemingly ready to declare victory and come home, but then would indicate he was willing to escalate, followed by promises of a deal that Iran was especially desperate to make, not himself.
Eventually, Trump would have to settle on an option. When he did so, there was always a risk that it would alienate some erstwhile supporters.
Perhaps that’s what was happening in the recent CBS News/YouGov poll, which comes closer to showing a “MAGA civil war” than most previous Iran polling. The breakdown among self-described conservatives was that the war “should end now,” compared to 39% who preferred to “continue the conflict until Iran gives up more.” Among Republicans, 60% said end now, 40% wanted it to continue until Iran gave up more.
That is a real division, though it’s also worth noting that large majorities of conservatives and Republicans agreed with the overall supermajority — 78% of all respondents — that the war should end now.
Trump’s job approval rating on Iran in the poll is still 75% among conservatives and 80% among Republicans. Conservatives and Republicans are still more likely than any other ideological group or party affiliation to say the war solved more problems than it created or that it was worth the costs for the United States
WHITE HOUSE POINTS OUT TWO FACTORS THAT CHANGED TRUMP’S MIND ON THE IRAN DEAL
Vice President JD Vance has been the public face of the Iran negotiations more than Trump himself. While Vance is still the clear front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination and popular with GOP voters, if not all of conservative media, there are many who prefer other leaders.
If the previous Iran polling reflected Republican and conservative faith in Trump, he could move the needle for the party on any deal. If those polls instead reflected deep-seated hawkishness on Iran or skepticism of Iran diplomacy like former President Barack Obama’s, it would be a much tougher sell.
