September 25, 2026
The Cook Political Report is projecting Democrats will win control of the House in November, after 15 House races shifted toward Democrats as new polling and advertising spending reshape battleground races. Following the changes, Democrats are favored in 208 House races rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Democratic, compared with 205 races favored for Republicans, according […]

The Cook Political Report is projecting Democrats will win control of the House in November, after 15 House races shifted toward Democrats as new polling and advertising spending reshape battleground races.

Following the changes, Democrats are favored in 208 House races rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Democratic, compared with 205 races favored for Republicans, according to Cook analyst Erin Covey. 

Several Republican-held seats currently rated Toss Ups could also move into the Lean Democratic column in the coming weeks.

“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” Covey wrote.

Democrats currently hold 215 House seats and need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority. According to the estimates, Democrats could ultimately gain between five and 15 seats, giving the party between 220 and 230 seats.

The competitive House map is somewhat more favorable to Republicans than it was at the start of the year, following redistricting in several states. Republicans are positioned to flip three seats because of new maps and could gain several additional seats in districts redrawn to benefit the party.

Advertisement

Democrats, meanwhile, are positioned to gain four seats as a result of new maps in California and Utah, partially offsetting Republican gains from redistricting.

The most competitive races are also playing out in districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2024. Cook’s September Battleground District Project poll found Democrats with a 49% to 47% advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters in 37 competitive House districts. Those districts were carried by Trump by an average of five points in 2024. 

Cook pointed to the economy as one factor weighing on Republicans, arguing that Trump’s standing on economic issues is affecting Republican candidates in districts he carried in the 2024 election.

Advertisement

Republicans are also facing particularly difficult contests in the Midwest, including Ohio and Iowa, where the effects of high fuel prices and tariffs are particularly stifling. Senate candidates in Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan last week notably broke with Trump, calling on him to end the war in Iran. The break came just days before the price of diesel topped $7 per gallon.

In Texas and Florida, meanwhile, Republicans are facing competitive races in heavily Hispanic districts that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Republicans have lost ground among Hispanic voters in the two states even after making significant gains with the demographic in 2024, according to the report. 

As Trump’s popularity plummets, House Democratic target emerges in red Indiana

Advertisement

Republicans have sought to counter the Democratic advantage with significant spending. Since Labor Day, two super PACs funded by MAGA Inc. have spent or reserved $83 million on ads in competitive House races, according to AdImpact. The Congressional Leadership Fund has $174 million reserved, while the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has $224 million reserved.

But Democratic challengers also outraised Republican incumbents in a majority of competitive House races during the most recent fundraising quarter.

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x