Futures Trim Losses As Focus Turns To Earnings

US stock futures slipped for a second day as investors braced for a busy week of parsing earnings reports for signs of an earnings recession, falling profitability and an economic slowdown. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% at 7:10 a.m. ET, recovering from a -0.5% drop earlier, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% after trading in the cash market was closed on Monday for a holiday. The dollar was flat after rebounding from an 8 month low on Monday while the US 10-year Treasury yield rises to top about 3.55%.

In premarket trading, shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers like XPeng Inc. retreated amid worries over demand and competition after the company slashed prices on its models in China. Bank stocks were also lower as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were set to report their fourth-quarter results before the bell. In corporate news, Bank of America shares got their only sell-equivalent rating after the company flagged a slowdown in lending last week. Whirlpool fell 6% in early New York trading after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of $4.90 billion, compared with forecasts for $5.15 billion. Freeport McMoRan slid 2.6%. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts predict copper could fall to $8,000 a ton from more than $9,000 now as physical demand indicators are weakening. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Pfizer (PFE US) stock slides 1.5% after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, which sees an earnings downgrade cycle on the horizon for the pharma giant.
• Cryptocurrency-related stocks rally, as Bitcoin extends its winning streak into a 14th day and trades above the $21,000 level. Coinbase +6%, Riot Platforms +8.3%, Bakkt +10%, Marathon Digital +9.4%
• MGO Global rises 43% to $6.65 in premarket trading, reversing losses from a volatile initial trading session in which the stock more than tripled before closing lower, the latest in a series of wild debuts for US small-cap listings.
• Keep an eye on Tesla after Jefferies cut its target for the stock to $180 from $350, as the brokerage slashed sales and earnings estimates for the electric-car maker. The company last week cut prices across its lineup in an effort to stoke demand after several quarters of disappointing deliveries.
• Watch Wells Fargo stock as it was cut to hold from buy at Jefferies with the risk-reward on the US lender now looking more balanced.
• Keep an eye on utilities as KeyBanc Capital Markets turned more negative on the outlook for the sector into 2023, downgrading CenterPoint Energy and Southern Co to sector weight.
• Watch Global Payments stock as it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, which says that fintech and payments sector offers “increasingly compelling” valuations from a more favorable backdrop.
• Piper Sandler downgrades Bandwidth (BAND US), DigitalOcean (DOCN US) and RingCentral (RNG US) to neutral as it tweaks its cloud automation software ratings, with Nice (NICE US) upgraded to overweight and Nutanix (NTNX US) its top pick.
• Morgan Stanley is guarded on hardline, broadline and food retail coverage to start 2023 as it sees more headwinds than tailwinds, with the magnitude of the headwinds outweighing the tailwinds. Wayfair (W US) and Kroger (KR US) upgraded to equal-weight from underweight; National Vision (EYE US) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight.

Bank stocks reversed losses to trade higher on Friday, even after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon and BofA’s Brian Moynihan warned of an uncertain economic environment as four of the six biggest US lenders reported their fourth-quarter results. Lenders Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley report earnings on Tuesday. Investors will dissect results for the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and signs of consumer spending slowdown.

“The spread between our earnings model and consensus forecasts is nearly as wide as it’s ever been and suggests a drawdown in stocks for which most are not prepared,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote in his latest gloomy note. “The main culprit is the elevated and volatile inflationary environment which is likely to play havoc with profitability.”

Meanwhile, according to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey, investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions. Allocation to US equities “collapsed” during the first month of 2023, with investors a net 39% underweight the asset class, they said, exceeding even the UK’s 15%. At the same time, participants in the January poll were “a lot less bearish” than in the fourth quarter, sparking a rotation to emerging markets, Europe and cyclical stocks, and away from pharmaceuticals, technology and the US, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

Investors had their expectations for a pause in central-bank tightening damped by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who said interest rates will have to move into restrictive territory to bring inflation back to target. BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said he saw no chance of policy easing this year. Data including a record increase in UK wages signaled further rate hikes are necessary.

“We’ve just hit pause and I am sure there’s some profit taking,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We‘re into the earnings season which likely brings with it risks and volatility. If you run a risk-parity or 60/40 book, you’ve done brilliantly already this year. It seems prudent to trim some risk.”

US corporate earnings may set the tone for traders this week as the reporting season moves up a gear. Of the 30 companies on the S&P 500 that have posted earnings so far, 24 have beaten analysts’ expectations. However, UBS Wealth Management expects “quite a bit of downside here on the earnings” in the US, according to Hartmut Issel, head of Asia Pacific equities.

European stocks and bonds are both in the red as investors contemplated the prospect of ongoing monetary tightening after ECB Chief Economist Lane said rates will have to move into restrictive territory. The BOE are also facing pressure to continue hiking after UK wages rose at their fastest rate on record, excluding the pandemic. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% and on course to snap a four-day winning streak with technology, real estate and autos leading declines. Here are some of the most notable European movers:

• ABB shares rise as much as 1.9% after Redburn upgrades stock to buy from sell, saying recent business exits could mean the Swiss industrial group can grow faster than earlier expected
• Wacker Chemie, one of Europe’s largest producers of polysilicon, rose as much as 3.7% after prices of the material used in solar panels surged in China
• Infineon shares rise as much as 2.4% after Barclays starts coverage of European semiconductor stocks with a preference for Infineon and STMicro, rating both overweight
• Alten shares rise as much as 4.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised its recommendation for the French engineering company to buy from hold, citing its ability to deliver strong growth
• Lindt shares rise as much as 1.1% after the Swiss chocolate maker delivered estimate-beating organic sales growth, Vontobel says, with FY23 guidance in line with mid-term targets
• Wise shares fall as much as 7.1% after the UK money-transfer firm’s volume growth slowed, coming in below analyst expectations in the fiscal third quarter
• Ocado Group shares decline as much as 11% after the online grocer reported 4Q retail sales that missed analyst estimates. Morgan Stanley said period performance was “disappointing”
• Philips falls as much as 5.6% after UBS cut the Dutch medical technology group to sell, describing a recent month-long rally as “unjustified,” and flagging downside risks to earnings
• Hugo Boss drops as much as 2.7% as Deustche Bank said a “mild” beat of 4Q consensus estimates failed to impress investors

Asian stocks were mixed as investors assessed data on China’s economic growth and braced for the Bank of Japan’s key policy decision due Wednesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as of 4:30p.m. Hong Kong time, as losses in financial shares offset an advance in consumer discretionary stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%, ending a four-day rally. Alibaba gained 1% after news that billionaire-investor Ryan Cohen has acquired a stake worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the second half of last year. China’s CSI 300 Index ended flat after a report showed the nation’s gross domestic product grew 3% in 2022, higher than economists expected. The market took a breather after three days of gains fueled by optimism over reopening and eased tech regulations. 

“I believe that the market will welcome such numbers,” said Hao Hong, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “if the property sector takes more time to recover, it will affect consumption as well. So this year is actually going to be more challenging than last year.”  Investors in Asia will also monitor speeches by several Federal Reserve officials this week, as well as comments by central bankers during the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Japanese stocks rose, ending a two-day loss, as investors adjusted positions before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision tomorrow. Although almost all economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change at the BOJ on Wednesday, some investors are bracing for more action as the central bank struggles to keep bond yields below its target.  The Topix Index rose 0.9% to 1,902.89 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.2% to 26,138.68. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.5%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,570 rose and 474 fell, while 117 were unchanged

Australian stocks dipped: the S&P/ASX 200 index closed slightly lower at 7,386.30, snapping four days of gains, as losses in mining and technology stocks weighed on the gauge.  Most markets across Asia fell as traders digested data that showed China’s economy growing at the second slowest pace since the 1970s.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 11,881.00

India’s benchmark stock gauge posted its biggest advance in more than a week as Reliance Industries led gains among energy firms amid improving outlook for the sector. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.9% to 60,655.72 in Mumbai, its largest single-day jump since Jan. 9. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rallied by a similar measure. All but three of the 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by capital goods makers. Reliance Industries gained 1.4%, after five-straight declines, to push the oil-and-gas sector gauge to an all-time high after the government lowered windfall tax on locally-produced crude and export of diesel.  Outlook for oil and gas companies has been improving as moderating crude prices allow state-run refiners to lower marketing losses while Reliance Industries benefits from higher margins. 

The Bloomberg Dollar Index inched up 0.1% as the greenback traded higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Scandinavian currencies were the worst performers while the Swiss franc led G-10 gains.

• The pound gained and gilts slumped in the wake of UK labor data that showed wages rose at a near-record pace for the three months through November. Yields rose 5-7bps across the curve and traders also bolstered bets on the BOE’s peak rate
• The euro inched lower, but held above $1.08. Bunds eased across the curve and Italian bonds underperformed. Germany January ZEW investor expectations rose to 16.9 versus estimate -15.0
• Japan’s benchmark yield briefly rose above the central bank’s ceiling for a third day as the Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting. The yen fell for a second day. Most economists expect the BOJ to stand pat although market watchers don’t rule out an adjustment including another widening of the yield band to 0.75 or higher, or a scrapping of the yield curve control
• The Australian and New Zealand dollars reversed an Asia session gain amid broad-based dollar strengthening. Australia’s consumer confidence jumped 5%, the largest monthly gain since April 2021, aided by a temporary respite from interest-rate increase as the Reserve Bank’s board doesn’t meet this month

In rates, the Treasury curve extended bear-steepening move after 30-year yields gap higher from the reopen after Monday’s US holiday. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 7bp across long-end of the curve with 10-year note futures trading toward bottom of Monday’s range; 10-year yields around 3.56% and cheaper by ~5bp vs Friday’s close. Gilts weaker over London session after UK wages rise faster than forecast while European supply pressures also weigh on core rates.  Long-end-led losses in US curve steepen 2s10s, 5s30s cash spreads by 5bp and 4bp vs Friday’s close. UK and German government bonds fall with 10-year borrowing costs rising 6bps and 2bps respectively.

In commodities, rose to session highs after earlier dropping  WTI rose 0.65% to trade above $80. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near 1,906/oz.

Bitcoin is essentially unchanged on the session and resides in particularly narrow sub-USD 400 parameters after last week’s marked upside.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,007.75
• MXAP little changed at 165.62
• MXAPJ down 0.4% to 544.25
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 26,138.68
• Topix up 0.9% to 1,902.89
• Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 21,577.64
• Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,224.25
• Sensex up 0.9% to 60,629.94
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,386.29
• Kospi down 0.9% to 2,379.39
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 454.10
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19%
• Euro little changed at $1.0822
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.78/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,908.36
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 102.38

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said the euro-area economy is performing better than many anticipated in the face of record inflation and the energy crisis that erupted after Russia attacked Ukraine
• ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said interest rates will have to move into “restrictive territory” to bring inflation back to target
• Investors are looking to bet against Italy’s peer-beating bond rally, saying the gains have gone too far. They argue the ECB is expected to keep hiking interest rates and is unlikely to stand in the way of a selloff given how narrow the spread over German bunds remains
• Investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey
• Some 467,000 working days in the UK were lost to strikes in November, a 10-year high, after a wave of walkouts caused by the most severe cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Days lost over a six-month period reached the highest level since 1989-90
• The BOJ’s policy decision due Wednesday is shaping up to be the biggest risk for the dollar-yen pair since the global financial crisis. The currency pair’s overnight implied volatility jumped as high as 54.4 vol, the highest since November 2008, as traders positioned for another policy tweak following a surprise move in December
• An arbitrage trade that rattled Japan’s bond market last year looks to be back. The spread between the prices on Japanese 10-year debt and similar-maturity futures has swelled in recent weeks, providing room for so-called basis trades that try to take advantage of the difference
• This year is pivotal for the Japanese economy to move away from decades of deflationary thinking toward sustained real wage growth, according to the head of the country’s largest labor union
• While China’s GDP grew 3% last year, the second-slowest pace since the 1970s, fourth- quarter and December data came in better than economists had expected
• China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades, the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in which most bourses lacked firm direction in the absence of a lead from the US due to MLK Jr. Day and despite the better-than-expected Chinese economic growth and activity data. ASX 200 was subdued with the index contained after it hit resistance at the 7,400 level, while an improvement in Westpac Consumer Confidence and an increase in Rio Tinto’s quarterly output did little to inspire trade. Nikkei 225 outperformed with strength in the auto sector driving the advances and as the BoJ kicked off its 2-day policy meeting with markets second-guessing what the central bank will decide regarding its ultra-easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre despite encouraging data in which Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures all topped estimates. Nonetheless, the 3.0% growth for 2022 was much lower than the ‘abandoned’ target of around 5.5% and President Xi’s hint of at least 4.4% growth, while China also noted its population shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 205bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 301bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 504bln net injection.
• China’s Customs said GDP grew 3.0% Y/Y in 2022 and that China was able to stabilise the economy, but added that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet, according to Reuters.
• China’s stats bureau stated China’s population in 2022 shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974, although the stats bureau chief later noted they should not worry about China’s population decline and overall labour supply still exceeds demand. The stats bureau chief also said that benign inflation in China will create room for macro policies and that the property sector’s drag on economic growth this year will not be larger than in 2022, according to Reuters.

European equities trade marginally lower following a mixed APAC lead, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%. Sectors in Europe are now mostly lower with no overall bias, but with Chemicals and Industrials outperforming and Autos and Energy towards the bottom. US equity futures are softer but off worse levels with the ES holding above 4,000 throughout the Tuesday session.

Top European News

• ECB’s Centeno says Q4 growth within Europe is likely to be positive.
• European Economy Commissioner Gentiloni says we have to strengthen competitiveness by streamlining state aid rules, have a good EU-US partnership; need to support competitiveness, not begin a subsidy war with the US.
• European Commission President von der Leyen says to avoid fragmenting the EU’s single market and to support clean tech across the EU, EU has to step up finding; For medium term will prepare a European sovereignty fund but it will take time.
• Germany’s BDI President says mild recessionary tendencies will predominate at the start of the year, sees upward trend; Economy expected to shrink by 0.3% in 2023; sees real 1% increase in export of goods and services this year (vs 1.5% global trade).

FX

• A choppy Tuesday session thus far for the Dollar as the index matched yesterday’s 102.56 peak in APAC hours before waning towards the unchanged mark ahead of the European cash open.
• CNH is softer intraday despite supportive Chinese data overnight, which saw Q4 GDP, IP and Retail Sales top expectations across the board.
• USD/JPY is choppy in a 128.23-129.13 parameter, but within recent ranges, whilst the technical “death cross” is more evident as the 50 DMA (135.60) falls further below the 200 DMA (136.67).
• Mixed trade seen across both the EUR and GBP with the latter leading the way following the UK jobs data following strong wages metrics which subsequently lifted BoE market pricing for a 50bps hike (at the time) to around 72% from 63% pre-release.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7222 vs exp. 6.7234 (prev. 6.7135)

Fixed Income

• Core benchmarks are downbeat after UK and German data, with USTs in tandem directionally but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams.
• Bunds and, post-open, Gilts printed session lows of 137.66 and 103.37 respectively post-UK jobs data, with the benchmarks nearing but not retesting these points after a particularly strong ZEW release.
• Following the UK jobs data, we have seen an uptick in BoE pricing for 50bp in February to a 75% probability from circa. 63% pre-release.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent front-month futures diverge intraday on account of the US MLK holiday on Monday which resulted in no WTI settlement.
• WTI Feb holds onto a USD 79/bbl status whilst Brent trades on either side of USD 85/bbl in what has been a choppy session.
• Spot gold has been drifting lower as the Dollar remains firm, with the yellow metal trundling lower from highs of USD 1,919/oz down to around USD 1,905/oz.
• Base metals are softer across the board (but to varying degrees) despite the supportive Chinese data overnight as a firmer Dollar exerts pressure on the complex.
• China’s state planner, NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline an diesel by CNY 205/tonne and CNY 195/tonne respectively as of January 18th.
• Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak writes “Review underway on the Russian oil price cap. Currently at USD 60 but I understand there is a good chance that it might be lowered a bit in upcoming weeks”.
• OPEC Secretary General is very bullish on China, and cautiously optimistic on the global economy; Chinese demand will grow by 500k barrels this year; waiting to see what happens after China’s New Year holiday (Jan 21st-29th).

Geopolitics

• Russian Defence Ministry discussed increasing the number of military personnel to 1.5mln (vs ~1.3mln in 2022), according to Tass; says major changes in Russian army will take place from 2023-26.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said the attack in Dnipro underscores the need for new and faster decisions on weapons supplies, while he added they expect key decisions from partners on arms supplies at the Ramstein meeting.
• Russian-installed Donetsk authorities confirm that Russia has control of Soledar, via Tass.
• Russia deployed an SU-27 fighter plane to escort a German naval aircraft over the Baltic, according to Interfax.
• Russian Kremlin when asked about a potential meeting between the CIA’s Burns and Russia spy chief says “this kind of dialogue is beneficial”.
• UK is reviewing whether to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, according to FT.
• China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they are discussing the details of a visit from US Secretary of State Blinken.
• Iran’s IRGC have conducted “major drills” in the Persian Gulf, according to Tasnim; details light.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Jan. Empire Manufacturing, est. -8.6, prior -11.2

Central Bank Speakers

• 15:00: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you are all looking forward to the rest of the year now after Blue Monday was navigated yesterday, which flew hot on the heels of Friday 13th at the end of last week. To be fair markets of late haven’t been either depressing or scary. However we took pause for breath yesterday, given the US holiday, with nothing much happening. The main news has instead been overnight, where we’ve just had the release of the Chinese GDP figures for Q4 that covers the December surge in Covid cases. The data was better than expected but still showed the scars from Covid.

Q4 GDP (+2.9%) beat expectations (+1.6%) with the FY at +3% (+2.7% expected and +8.1% in 2021) – the second lowest year since China re-emerged from the economic wilderness in the 1970s. Momentum was much stronger than expected in December though. Retail sales dropped -1.8% y/y in December, much better than -9.0% fall expected by analysts and compared to a -5.9% decline in the prior month. Meanwhile, industrial production grew +1.3% y/y, well above the +0.1% predicted by Bloomberg. At the same time, fixed asset investment for 2022 rose by +5.1%, slightly above the +5% expected by Bloomberg.

Asian markets are lower though led by the Hang Seng (-1.25%) followed by the KOSPI (-0.77%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.27%) and the CSI (-0.16%). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.28%) is bucking the trend this morning, recouping some of the losses from the previous two sessions. In overnight trading, stock futures in the US are indicating a negative opening with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.54%) trading in the red. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+2.95 bps) have edged higher to 3.53% after the holiday.

Looking back at yesterday now, it was an incredibly uneventful session for the most part, even adjusting for the impact of the US holiday. For instance, if you look at US futures markets (since spot markets were closed), S&P 500 futures had barely budged by the time Europe went home, with a modest decline of -0.10%. It was a similar story for bonds, where futures also saw little change, perhaps in part since expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate for June moved up by just +0.002bps on the day. That said, despite the lack of excitement, the VIX index of volatility ticked up from its one-year low on Friday, moving up +1.14pts to 19.49pts.

Back in Europe there wasn’t much happening either, but one trend to note was the continued decline in natural gas futures yesterday, which fell back to a 16-month low of €55.45 per megawatt-hour. Although these prices are still well above their historic norms, they’ve now come down by more than half in the last month, so this is a big and positive shock if it ends up being sustained. In turn, that led to a fresh decline in inflation expectations, and the 10yr German breakeven came down a further -2.9bps to a 3-month low of 2.05%.

That greater optimism on the inflation side wasn’t enough to prevent a modest decline in sovereign bonds yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.6bps) all seeing a small increase. Gilts were an underperformer, with 10yr yields up +1.8bps rise on the day as UK assets more broadly saw a slight underperformance. That came as BoE Governor Bailey testified before the Treasury Committee of MPs, where he warned that there was a risk that inflation wouldn’t drop as fast as expected. Overall however, there was nothing revelatory on how they’re thinking about the next decision on February 2.

With the positive gas news boosting sentiment more broadly, European equities advanced for the most part. The STOXX 600 rose +0.46%, taking the index up to its highest level since April, with other advances for the FTSE 100 (+0.20%), the DAX (+0.31%) and the CAC 40 (+0.28%). That continues the very positive start to the year for European equities, and means that the YTD returns now stand at +7.00% for the STOXX 600 and +8.69% for the DAX.

Finally, the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos opened last night, which will continue for the rest of the week. Numerous political and business leaders are gathering there, and today’s speakers include European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and German finance minister Christian Lindner. Separately, it’s not actually a Davos meeting, but we heard yesterday that US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would be meeting in Zurich.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines.