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A top Democratic operative warned that poor campaigns and candidate choice from Republicans are opening the door for Democrats to seize control of the Senate during an interview with Fox News Digital.
Dan Turrentine, who served as chief of staff to current Colorado Gov. Jared Polis when he was a member of Congress, said several close Senate races seem to be trending Democrat in the leadup to Tuesday’s election.
“Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate,” Turrentine said.
He cited several races, including North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. That seat, which has long been red, seems poised to flip as polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
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Republicans, who are widely projected to lose their slim House majority, currently hold a 53-47 lead in the Senate. In addition to North Carolina, a number of surprisingly close Senate races in both swing states like Ohio and Michigan, and in typically deep red states such as Texas, Kansas and Missouri, have Democrats like Turrentine hopeful they can gain full control of Congress on Tuesday.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley are the top candidates in North Carolina’s Senate race. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
While crediting smart campaigning from Democrats, Turrentine also pinned Republican shortcomings on what he called poor candidate quality. He cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to take the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
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“If Republicans lose the Senate, it’s likely one of those four loses,” said Turrentine, who hosts “The Huddle” podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. “While the president’s standing is part of the problem, that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality.”
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But while Democrats are performing well in polls, Turrentine acknowledged that previous surveys have overstated support for his party.
“Campaigns are terrified about polling,” he said, adding that “reaching voters is harder than ever; people don’t have landlines and routinely ignore unknown numbers.”
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“We’ve had consecutive change elections — 2016, 2022, 2024 — where polling struggled to capture late-breaking dynamics. Will frustrated Trump voters stay home, or will early Democratic surges in Texas just reflect high-propensity voters banking votes early rather than expanding the electorate? Nobody knows, and people have a knot in their stomach about Tuesday,” he said.
Turrentine was a even more confident in a Democratic takeover of the Senate before this week’s bombshell New York Times report alleging that Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, R-Alaska, to ostensibly confuse voters into accidentally choosing Daniel J. Sullivan over the incumbent senator.
Peltola has denied any involvement in the former Sullivan’s campaign.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, a U.S. Senate candidate, missed Sunday campaign tour events and will be resting Monday before returning to the trail Tuesday for the final week before one of the most consequential Senate races on the midterm map. (Nathaniel Wilder/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Peltola has led almost every single poll until yesterday. Like so many of these states, Democrats win on disgruntled Republicans. It wouldn’t take much for those voters to say they can’t stomach the Democrat,” said Turrentine, adding that the Frontier State may now be a tossup.
If Alaska’s Senate seat slips from the Democrats’ grip, a majority could come down to the Democrats winning Ohio, Texas and one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Mississippi, Turrentine said.
“In Maine, we’ve spent entire careers thinking we’re going to defeat [GOP incumbent] Susan Collins. It feels slightly different this time, but it also doesn’t; she’s within a point or two. No Democrat wants the majority coming down to Maine or Alaska,” he added.
Collins trails Graham Platner replacement Troy Jackson 49-45, according to a recent CNN poll.
FILE – Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, accused the Trump administration of undermining Congress’s Constitutional power of the purse. (CJ Gunther/Getty Images)
If the Democrats do take the Senate, Turrentine suggested, they will have to contend with the rising tide of socialism and an increasingly popular far-left wing within the party.
“This tension between who will be what I’ll call the majority makers and the base that feels like… both feel like, ‘You need me,’ right? A moderate can’t win if the base doesn’t turn out,” Turrentine added.
He relayed party criticisms of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become speaker should the Democrats wrest control of the lower chamber from the GOP.
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., talk on the floor after Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., did not receive enough votes for Speaker of House on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
“Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down. And no one knows who Hakeem Jeffries is,” Turrentine said.
“Pelosi had the trust of both wings; Hakeem Jeffries still faces questions from both sides about where he stands, all while [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer watches for a primary challenge from his left,” he added.
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