The 2024 Republican presidential primary field grew by one on Monday with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) announcing his candidacy in Charleston, but supporters have consistently stated that a crowded primary field will eventually work in former President Donald Trump‘s favor.
Scott brings the total number of announced Republican hopefuls to 10, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) likely to join on Wednesday. And with upward of 10 more contemplating potentially jumping into the race, the primary field is starting to look more and more like the crowded 2016 contest that saw Trump best 14 established politicians, a world-renowned neurosurgeon, and the first woman to serve as CEO of a Fortune top 20 company.
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Like 2016, the 2024 field embodies the Republican Party’s slow but steady diversification. This cycle, there are two Indian Americans, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, two black men, Scott and radio host Larry Elder, and one declared Latino, John Anthony Castro. Former Texas GOP Rep. Will Hurd and Miami GOP Mayor Francis Suarez have also flirted with running.
Trump’s most serious challenger this cycle comes in the form of DeSantis, who reportedly plans to announce his candidacy Wednesday night in a Twitter Space hosted by Elon Musk, but the former president maintains a commanding lead over DeSantis in nearly every poll.
Furthermore, whoever wins the 2024 Republican nomination will face off against President Joe Biden, who, despite being a sitting president, is far from the top choice for many Democratic voters this cycle. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was hampered by similar problems in 2016 when supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Clinton’s Democratic primary foe, failed to turn out for the general election and, in some cases, even voted for Trump.
Still, the 2024 cycle features an obvious distinction from 2016: Trump now is not Trump then.
In 2016, the yet-to-be-elected 45th president was viewed as more of a joke than a serious candidate, so much so that MSNBC’s Morning Joe entertained him for near-daily interviews that the former reality TV star was able to parlay into a surge of support from disaffected Obama voters in critical Rust Belt states.
But in 2024, even after attempting to throw out the results of his 2020 election loss, Trump remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party and front-runner to take on Biden, a far cry from the long-shot candidate underestimated by onetime rivals Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) and former Florida GOP Gov. Jeb Bush.
Trump, who will be 78 in November of 2024, is also dealing with a litany of legal problems, ranging from investigations into his handling of classified information after leaving office and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to civil sexual assault allegations.
Several 2024 candidates, DeSantis in particular, have sought to fashion themselves as the intellectual heirs to the MAGA movement with none of Trump’s baggage.
Trump supporters and reelection effort officials, however, believe that none of Trump’s post-COVID-19 behavior will factor into the primary and might even help the former president in some cases.
“The die-hard MAGA supporters won’t vote for anyone but Trump. Everyone else who gets in dilutes support for DeSantis,” a MAGA official previously told the Washington Examiner, claiming Trump maintains an iron grip over roughly 40% of GOP voters.
“DeSantis is trying to position himself as more MAGA than President Trump, but as soon as he steps onstage, it’s going to be clear he’s really just a conservative Pete Buttigieg,” a former Trump administration veteran added. “He’s basically a dumb person’s idea of what MAGA really is without any of Trump’s charisma or willingness to fight for the people abandoned by the swamp.”
“Joe Biden’s record speaks for itself. That’s why they’re so hellbent on trying to stop President Trump from winning the nomination,” a second former Trump administration official added. “The American people can see through the lies, whether they’re coming from the Biden or DeSantis team, and that’s going to come through when it’s time to vote.”
Trump’s post-White House influence ebbed slightly during the early days of the Biden administration but returned with a vengeance following his and what supporters have called politically targeted legal headaches.
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The latest poll from Morning Consult shows Trump holding a commanding lead over his competition. Nearly 60% of potential Republican primary voters say they would vote for the former president if the primary were held today.
DeSantis clocks in at 20%, and his 38-point deficit marks a slight improvement compared to mid-May. Former Vice President Mike Pence leads all other potential candidates, announced or otherwise, with 6% support.
