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June 8, 2023
There is nothing more fundamental to electioneering than taking a list of registered voters, knocking on their doors, pitching your candidate, handing each a flyer, and getting them all out to vote.
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This is the building block of election management. It is stunning how absolutely incompetent the Republican Party is performing this fundamental task.
Last week, NBC News did a story about how the canvassing for Republican candidates was so bad that it likely lost the Senate elections in Nevada and Georgia, and probably others as well.
Our Republican Party pals could not deliver a list of voters that was close to accurate!
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The next time you sit back bemoaning the country going to the devil, remember that fundamentals win elections, and your team cannot deliver the most fundamental task: an accurate list of registered voters.
We learned this in 2021, when Sheriff Clarke invited us to apply our game-changing technology, Fractal, to the voter list in Wisconsin. The success we had helping the great Wisconsin election integrity team brought us into 12 other states — now running the largest voter database in the world at 1.7 billion records.
A major conservative publication, The Conservative Treehouse, went as far as crediting Senator Ron Johnson’s narrow Wisconsin win to that Wisconsin voter integrity team. We agree. One for the good guys.
In 2022, we received the RNC lists for several swing states. We compared them to our own lists and found the RNC lists to be 40% to 50% inaccurate.
In advertising, there is a saying: “50% of all advertising is wasted. But nobody knows which 50%.”
The same can be applied to electioneering advertising — with the caveat that we know exactly which 50% is wasted, because with Fractal, we create lists that are 99% accurate. We update them constantly.
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Let’s go there.
Where do lists come from?
Lists originate at the voter roll.
Politicos download a copy of the registered voter roll. Unfortunately, in every swing state, and most other states, from 10% to 30% of the current names and/or addresses are out of date. Republicans start way behind.
As the NBC article notes, Republican paid canvassers take these lists and go door to door.
When they are pressured, which is always, canvassers make up fake information and enter it into those canvassing lists. That is not us saying it — the NBC article quotes the Republican operatives stating it. We see it as well.
Those lists get to 50% inaccurate pretty fast.
What do campaigns do?
Republican campaigns mail massive volumes of postcards — to lists that are 50% inaccurate. They pay to send texts to people who are, 50% of the time, not there. They hire canvassers — actually fly them into a state — paying for hotels, food, flights — and 50% of more of the addresses they contact are wrong.
Bad data, continually recycled within a campaign, compound unnecessary costs — wasting 50% of the total outreach spend.
In the world of Republican politics, yes, we know which 50% is wasted, because we know which addresses are fake. We built the Undeliverable Ballot Database — the single best view of where a ballot can go, or a canvasser can go, and find the true voter.
It’s not just the RNC. Candidates, who ought to know better, are just as guilty.
We did the expert witness report for the Kari Lake campaign after her loss.
We are just data guys, not involved in politics. We thought it would be pretty obvious that a gifted candidate like Lake would remember Election Night 2020. Arizona went to Biden — a real surprise.
The following months showed massive voter fraud in two large metro counties. So, as data guys, we expected Kari Lake would cut the cards, clean her lists and thus double her reach-out spend capacity, monitor election rolls, and enjoy being governor.
Nope.
Lake mindlessly gobbled those GOP lists, never monitored the election commission, and lost several different ways. We were able to show that had she simply done election roll real-time analysis monitoring, in one county alone, she would likely have stopped tens of thousands of fake voter roll changes that worked against her.
What candidate would see prima facie voter fraud, multiple ways, and think he could outrun it with a great smile and the ability to make stupid press types look…stupid?
Let’s not blame Lake — she is in good company.
This happened in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and a number of other states. The balance of power in the United States Senate can be said today to be the singular result of crappy Republican lists.
Reminds us of the nursery rhyme: “for want of a nail, a kingdom was lost.”
Unfortunately, it’s our kingdom, and it’s not a nursery rhyme. It’s reality.
How do we fix this?
Focusing on voter lists, let’s remember that they change constantly. About 20% of addresses and names change every year, often more in college-dominant counties. Thus, real-time voter roll management is needed.
Every corporation on Planet Earth is beating a path to being as real-time as possible. Each wants to know what its customers are thinking, buying, posting — now. The singular exception is the Republican Party, who uses an SQL, obsolete, batch, “data driven” approach — leading to continual losses with crappy lists.
Also, Republican candidates, like Lake, who use their lists without question.
To keep voter lists pristine, start with close to pristine data — personal property tax rolls. We ingest the property tax rolls for the county. Thus, the list starts with every address. What is on the dirt there? Is it a vacant lot, or is it a home or business?
What year was the building built? How many square feet? Number of bedrooms and baths? What is the business? If it is an apartment or multi-unit building, what are all the corollary addresses?
We then ingest the voter rolls. We reconcile the voter rolls with the tax rolls. Those tax rolls are the way the county gets its dough — they are very accurate and up to date. To keep them up to date, we re-ingest them every 30 days!
We know that Samantha is registered to vote in a vacant lot — so we can challenge a mail-in ballot to her because mail is not delivered to vacant lots! We look into Phineas’s location because while he lives in an apartment building, he claims to live in the clubhouse — which has no bedrooms. We review this on our Omega4America site under the Undeliverable Ballot Database. It is very detailed — updated constantly.
In 2022, canvassers in Wisconsin used the RNC lists and reported that they were 50% inaccurate. In 2023, there were some special elections and primaries, and the Wisconsin team, using Fractal, brought our lists to the party.
The paid canvassers reported that the Fractal lists were over 99% accurate. In one interview, the person said that in 20 years as a paid canvasser, this was the most accurate list he had ever used.
We are not here for accolades — we are here to move the Republicans to real time.
We want to introduce artificial intelligence address matching — which we pioneered — into electioneering.
We want to introduce Republicans to similarity search name matching — in which we were awarded six patents.
We don’t care if Republicans use our technology — just do real time, and stop losing with SQL and relational databases.
We offered Fractal free to the Arizona voter integrity teams, and they refused it seven times — as have several of the national voter integrity organizations. Our real time analysis would have alerted the Lake campaign to the 107,000 changes to the voter rolls a week before the election.
Our company is valued at over a billion dollars. Our clients use our A.I. technology to protect the power grid, manage the power consumption in office buildings, replace aging corporate systems.
We are trying to overcome idiocy. It’s harder than we thought it would be, but we are trying.
There is a future for delivering winning electioneering lists — accurate canvassing — highly efficient voter reach-out. Real-time, constantly updated voter lists can be delivered — today — at a fraction of what the RNC is paying its obsolete tech vendors.
If a kingdom is to be lost for want of a nail, it won’t be for the want of our nail.
Jay Valentine led the team that built the eBay fraud detection engine, the TSA No-Fly List, and the identity fraud system used by most of the property insurance industry. His team built the Undeliverable Ballot Database and now works with several state legislatures defining how to use real-time Fractal analysis to clean voter rolls, clean Medicaid rolls, and find FEC contribution mules.
Image: cagdesign via Pixabay, Pixabay License.
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