A surprise decision by the Supreme Court could change the landscape of the battle for the House in 2024, putting Republicans at a significant disadvantage.
On Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled in Allen v. Milligan that Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of black voters, which make up more than a quarter of the state’s population. The decision will lead to the redrawing of states’ congressional maps, creating several majority-black districts that lean heavily Democrat.
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The change resulted in the Cook Political Report’s Senior Editor, Dave Wasserman, changing his estimate for five different 2024 House races, all in favor of Democrats.
Two Alabama and two Louisiana races were changed from solid Republican to toss-up, while one North Carolina race was changed from toss-up to lean Democrat. The ruling threatens to change Republican fortunes in several other states across the South as well; Wasserman said that the five changes are only those that can be confirmed for now, and more changes are likely to come.
“Politically, the ruling could shake up the 2024 battle for the House, send shockwaves beyond Alabama and potentially offset a new gerrymander Republicans are likely to impose in North Carolina,” Wasserman wrote. “The key states to watch are Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina.”
Here are the five races that now could potentially face a different fate than prior to Allen v. Milligan.
Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) – Alabama 1st Congressional District
Carl took office in 2021, where he has styled himself as a conservative and a major ally of former President Donald Trump. He won handily in 2020 against Democrat James Averhart, with 64.4% of the vote. In 2022, he won in a landslide against Libertarian Alexander Remrey, winning 83.6% of the vote.
Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) – Alabama 2nd Congressional District
Moore was elected in 2020 after previously losing in 2018, coming in third place in the Republican primary. He has styled himself as a conservative, going so far as to vote against President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. Moore won the general election in 2020 with 65.2% of the vote and in 2022 with 69.1% of the vote.
Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA)- Louisiana 5th Congressional District
Letlow became the first Republican woman to represent Louisiana in 2021 when she won a special election with 64.9% of the vote. She won reelection in 2022 with 67.6% of the vote. She has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and has said she would have voted against certifying the 2020 election results if she was in office at the time.
Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA)- Louisiana 6th Congressional District
Graves, one of McCarthy’s key negotiators during the recent debt ceiling talks, took office in 2014, taking the seat of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) after the latter was elected as a senator. His share of the vote has increased significantly with each election; Graves received 62.4% in 2014, 62.7% in 2016, 69.5% in 2018, 71% in 2020, and 80.6% in 2022. The trend looks set to reverse drastically in 2024.
Don Davis (D-NC)- North Carolina 1st Congressional District
The one Democrat on the list, Davis, is in a much easier position, as his seat has gone from toss-up to leaning Democrat. The freshman Democrat won in 2022 with 52.3% of the vote against Republican Sandy Smith. His share of the vote is likely to grow in 2024, with a major influx of Democratic voters likely securing his position.
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Although Wasserman listed these five races, he argued that the true number of seats shifting away from Republicans over the decision is likely much higher, because the ruling will have a lasting effect on Republicans’ calculus when redistricting, Wasserman argued.
Given the Republicans’ slim House majority, Allen v. Milligan could prove a major blow to the chances of keeping its majority in 2024.
