The prospect of a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential contest isn’t worrying both parties equally.
Based on early polling, Democrats are much more concerned that a bid from the centrist organization No Labels could hurt their candidate than are Republicans.
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Center-left think tank Third Way has released data showing that a major third-party ticket could be a “spoiler” that ruins President Joe Biden‘s chances of keeping the White House. The group, along with progressive organization MoveOn, will brief Senate Democratic chiefs of staff on July 27 about their concerns.
No Labels disputes this line of thinking and the data behind it, saying it has a realistic shot at having an effect, as evidenced by consistent polling that shows voters do not want a rematch between Biden and Donald Trump.
“Both our polling and theirs shows an overwhelming opening for a third party ticket before names are even announced and any campaign communicating the vision and issue positions is run,” No Labels chief pollster Dritan Nesho said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “Our data also shows there are a lot more undecided and disaffected voters in the country. Elections are about choices, and an independent unity ticket has a lot of room to grow.”
Discussions about nontraditional presidential candidates crop up every election cycle, but No Labels is seeking to break through in a larger way thanks to its $70 million campaign to secure ballot access in all 50 states and the prospect of a presidential rematch, which has not occurred since 1956.
Third-party candidates have made noise in the past on occasion. Self-made billionaire Ross Perot garnered nearly 20 million votes in 1992, and some have claimed that Green Party nominee Ralph Nader handed the 2000 election to George W. Bush by siphoning off would-be Al Gore voters in Florida.
But those are outliers and do not signal that there’s an appetite for No Labels to reach a large percentage of voters in 2024, argues Rutgers University history, journalism, and media studies professor David Greenberg.
“[No Labels has] not defined a platform or chosen a candidate and most Americans haven’t even heard of them,” he said. “Democrats are worried because the last few elections have been close, and even a small third-party vote could bring Trump back to the White House.”
Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 11,779 votes, or 0.23%, and Arizona by 10,457 votes, or 0.3%. So even the tiniest swing could get those states back in the red column next year.
American Enterprise Institute senior fellow John Fortier says that despite talk about disaffected “Never Trump” Republicans who might back an independent candidate, such voters are rare outside of highly educated circles inside the Washington Beltway.
“The people more likely to switch [to a third party] are less well educated, less interested in politics, not these upscale, socially liberal and fiscally conservative people,” he said. “My sense is that No Labels would be slightly more attractive or take more votes from the Democratic candidates, which is why they’re a little more worried about it.”
While no candidate has been announced yet, No Labels have not ruled out a campaign to elevate someone like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), a centrist Democrat and longtime supporter of the group. Manchin has often been a thorn in the side of Democrats and faces long odds of reelection to the Senate in deep red West Virginia.
Manchin has not announced either way but says the country needs a bipartisan candidate to bring the parties together.
Fortier insists that the hype surrounding disaffected voters who are upset with Biden and Trump is largely just that. On the contrary, he argues that voters who despite one candidate or the other are often highly motivated to vote, as evidenced by record high turnout in 2020.
“For many Democrats, Trump is a big motivator to not vote for a third-party candidate,” he said. “But I feel like there’s a lot of that on the Republican side too.”
No Labels says it will suspend its efforts if polling shows Biden significantly ahead of Trump and will likely exit the race entirely if Trump is not chosen as the GOP nominee.
Ryan Clancy, No Labels chief strategist, previously told the Washington Examiner that many Republican voters who do not see Trump’s name on the ballot will not show up to vote, which could “close off the potential path for an independent ticket.”
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But Republican strategist John Feehery, like Greenberg and Fortier, doubts No Labels can have much of an impact regardless.
“It is a group of elites who are not comfortable hanging out with Republican riff-raff but can’t stomach Democratic socialism,” Feehery said. “I don’t think they have any impact on the election, one way or another.”
