After almost a year of shadow and official campaigning, Iowa Republicans have confirmed Jan. 15 as the date for this election cycle’s caucuses, marking six months until the 2024 Republican presidential primary’s first nominating contest.
But the January caucus date, the earliest since 2012 and one coinciding with Martin Luther King Jr. Day, may advantage some candidates as it disadvantages others.
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Candidates like Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who may benefit from more time to build momentum amid former President Donald Trump‘s legal problems, remain confident about their chances in Iowa, regardless of the Jan. 15 caucus date.
“Iowa caucusgoers are gravitating towards Tim Scott’s message of faith and optimism anchored in conservatism,” Scott campaign spokeswoman Nicole Morales told the Washington Examiner. “The date of the caucus does not change the fact that Iowa voters are ready to end the [President Joe] Biden retreat and restore faith in America.”
“Mike Pence announced in Iowa, just completed a 10-county swing in Iowa, and is planning to be in every one of Iowa’s counties before the caucus, so Jan. 15 seems like as good of a day as any to win the Iowa caucus,” an adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence said.
University of Iowa politics professor Timothy Hagle similarly downplayed the importance of the date, considering the 2016 Iowa caucuses were only two weeks later, on Feb. 1. But Hagle did underscore that spring semester at his university starts on Jan. 16, so students registered in the state will be important in their respective precincts, in contrast to in 2008 and 2012 when they were on Jan. 3. Holding the caucuses on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday, may also provide the opportunity for more people to take part in the process.
Hagle, too, emphasized that the primary’s fundamentals could shift as Trump’s legal team seeks to delay his federal classified documents trial in Florida to until 2025 and a grand jury in Georgia could already be considering Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s case against the former president alleging 2020 election interference.
“We saw back in the 2012 caucuses, where [former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick] Santorum, who was running mainly against [then-former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt] Romney, were the main top two competitors, then Santorum had a huge surge just days before the caucuses,” the professor said. “[Sen. Marco] Rubio [R-FL] was surging in 2016. He came in third behind [Sen. Ted] Cruz [R-TX], who won, and then, of course, Trump in second. I think if the caucuses had been a week or so later, that Rubio might have actually been in second place just because you have these late movement kinds of things.”
“Who has the better ground game is usually the one that’s going to be in a better position to win,” he added.
Iowa confirming its caucus date, eight days before New Hampshire’s primary on Jan. 23, came after FAMiLY Leader President Bob Vander Plaats announced Tuesday that Trump is not attending his social conservative organization’s leadership summit in Des Moines, Iowa, this Friday.
“Trump’s snub of Iowa conservatives should come as no surprise,” Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) spokesman Andrew Romeo told reporters. “Over the last two months, it has been one misstep after another for Donald Trump in Iowa.”
“While Ron DeSantis is putting in the work to win Iowa, Trump is doing everything he can to lose it,” he repeated to the Washington Examiner when asked about the Jan. 15 caucus date.
Last month, Trump missed Sen. Joni Ernst‘s (R-IA) Roast and Ride fundraiser for veterans, despite promising to send a prerecorded video in his stead. Trump additionally criticized Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) this week after the New York Times wrote about Reynolds’s close relationship with DeSantis, though she has reiterated that she will not endorse in the primary.
“I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind, I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won,” Trump wrote on social media. “Now, she wants to remain ‘NEUTRAL.’ I don’t invite her to events! DeSanctus down 45 points!”
Trump is averaging 48% support in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics. That is more than double DeSantis’s share of the primary electorate, at least per early polls. The governor has 24% of the vote, compared to former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Scott’s 4%, as well as Pence’s 3%, biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy‘s 2%, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson‘s 1%.
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“The polls haven’t moved. It’s been amazingly stagnant. And every time there’s an indictment, Trump gets a boost in the polls,” Hagle said. “Maybe that’s one of the things that the polls are actually reflecting: more support for Trump as being the supposed victim of what’s going on here, as opposed to do you really want him to be the nominee for the party.”
“He just keeps rolling along and just defies expectations, so it’s always a little hard to predict what’s going to happen, but he does seem to be in a very strong position,” the professor continued. “Anybody that’s going to be able to beat him is going to have to find some way to get some of those Trump supporters to switch over to somebody else. And so it’s a tough, tough task ahead.”
