DES MOINES, Iowa — Prospective Iowa Republican primary caucusgoers are dismissing concerns about former President Donald Trump‘s chances in a rematch of the last election against President Joe Biden next year.
But with many Republicans adamant that Trump won three years ago, the issue of electability has changed.
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It’s a dilemma sure to take on greater urgency after Trump was indicted on charges relating to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and the subsequent Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
After a Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) meet-and-greet in Oskaloosa, Bryan Person, 50, who will likely caucus for Trump, downplayed concerns about the former president’s electability in a general election six months before Iowa’s opening nominating contest.
“That’s part of the play by other people,” the Adel technology representative told the Washington Examiner. “It could be the weaker pack or the weaker candidates. They couldn’t play in this system without Trump.”
But before DeSantis’s remarks, Jenna Belcher, 49, who is considering caucusing for DeSantis after supporting Trump in 2016 and 2020, expressed concerns about the prospects of candidates other than Trump in the primary and what repercussions that will have for next year’s election as the governor seeks to make electability central to his campaign.
When asked whether Trump can win against Biden next year amid his legal problems, including a possible second federal indictment regarding the 2020 election and Jan. 6, the Oskaloosa assistant responded, “I pray to God so.”
But electability is different after 2020 since so many of Trump’s supporters insist he won his last election. For a man who attended the meet-and-greet with Belcher, Trump would be reelected next year if “there’s no cheating.”
“No one’s going to change my mind on that,” he said without providing specific examples. “That’s my concern. We’ve got to get a hold of this election system.”
Leanne Hessing, 66, praised Trump as a “good” president but contended Republicans “need somebody new with some new ideas,” particularly because Trump has become “vindictive” and “the media is way too set against him.”
“A lot are still for Trump because they feel like … it was unfair, the last election, and he should have been elected president,” the Pella home school teacher said. “But I think more are starting to see that we probably need somebody new.”
While Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary, public opinion about him has morphed since Jan. 6, according to John Bandstra, 67, Hessing’s friend.
“If Trump ends up being the nominee, I’ll vote for him, but he’s not my first choice,” the Oskaloosa farmer said, citing the former president’s policies. “Trump’s attitude probably turned me more against him than anything lately. Since Jan. 6, he’s not acting for the good of the country. It’s more ‘Vengeance is mine.'”
But before a separate DeSantis meet and greet held the previous day an hour away in Chariton, Brad Reece, 61, underscored that “all of these things” that Democrats are “throwing” at Trump are having the unintended consequence of Republicans “getting more behind Trump.”
“They do not like to see what they’re trying to do to Donald Trump,” the Chariton farmer said. “I mean, it’s obvious to me and a lot of other people that they’re so hypocritical in Washington, D.C. We’re getting tired of it. We’re just fed up with it.”
Biden averages less than a percentage point edge over Trump, 45% to 44%, according to RealClearPolitics, but a New York Times-Siena College poll published this week found the pair had 43% apiece in a hypothetical general election. Biden has, on average, a slightly larger advantage over DeSantis, 45% to 43%, per RealClearPolitics, as Trump leads DeSantis by 36 points in the primary, 54% to 18%.
Regardless of that polling, DeSantis has reiterated his electability argument, most recently this week on Fox News with Bret Baier.
“There’s too many voters who just aren’t going to vote for him going forward,” the governor said. “I saw it in Florida in my reelection. I won the first time by less than a percent, second time by 20. Why did people vote against me in ’18 but then voted for me ’22? The No. 1 reason they gave was because of Trump.”
“I also think, in terms of the base, you need to have a cadre of personnel,” he added. “If you want to slay this administrative state, you got to be disciplined, you got to be focused, and you got to have people surrounding you that are going to go and support the mission. … The former president would have a very difficult time getting the type of personnel to join the administration that you would need to actually bring this stuff to fruition.”
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is making a similar case, though she has been more indirect about Trump, advocating instead “a new generational leader” and competency tests for public officials older than 75.
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Meanwhile, outside organizations, such as Americans for Prosperity, are expanding their attempts to encourage the electorate to vote for neither Trump nor Biden, spending $1 million in the first-in-the-nation states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
“Americans can’t afford four more years of Joe Biden,” AFP Action Director Nathan Nascimento said. “Yet, if Trump is the nominee, that is exactly what they will get. … Under Donald Trump’s watch, Republicans lost the House, the Senate, and the White House. We need to move on from Biden, and Republicans need to move on from Trump and nominate someone that can win the general election.”
