The first Republican presidential debate is a few weeks out, and it will serve as an important marker for the 2024 campaign — where campaigns can sink or swim.
In recent history, several candidates have faltered under the harsh spotlight of the primary debate stage. Here is a look at three instances in primary debates where a poor performance or moment cost them in the primary contest.
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2012 Republican primary debates:
Then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry had stumbled in the early debates of the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, but the death knell to his campaign came in a debate in November 2011.
During the debate, Perry said he would abolish three government agencies if he became president. He listed the Department of Commerce and the Department of Education, but he was unable to remember the third agency.
“And I will tell you, it is three agencies of government when I get there that are gone. Commerce, Education, and the… what’s the third one there? Let’s see,” Perry said.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney offered up the Environmental Protection Agency as the third agency to which Perry jokingly said was the third agency, but when asked by a moderator if that was the third agency, Perry conceded it was not.
“I can’t. The third one, I can’t. Sorry. Oops,” Perry said.
Perry’s poll numbers, which had been in decline for nearly two months, further tanked, and he dropped out of the primary in January 2012, days ahead of the South Carolina primary. He would run another unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016, but would be appointed as Secretary of the Department of Energy in 2017, which ironically was the third agency he wanted to abolish.
2016 Republican primary debates:
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) ran into his own stumbles in a debate during the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
Rubio, who had been on the rise after finishing in a close third place in the Iowa Caucuses, entered the debate in New Hampshire ahead of the state’s primary with momentum, but one line, said several times, halted his momentum.
The Florida Senator has claimed that then-President Barack Obama “knew exactly” what he was doing with a biting line, in response to a question about readiness to become president.
“Let’s dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing,” Rubio said.
Then-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie then answered and attacked Rubio for not having the experience to be president, citing Obama, who was elected president during his first term as senator, as an example of someone who is not experienced.
Rubio responded and used that same line in his answer, which Christie pointed out. Christie then reiterated his point on how being a one-term senator does not prepare someone to be president. Rubio responded again using the line again, and Christie called it out.
“There it is. There it is. The memorized 25-second speech. There it is, everybody,” Christie said.
Rubio’s repeated, rehearsed lines incident was widely viewed as the takeaway from the debate, and the Florida Senator would eventually drop out in March after several disappointing finishes, including a loss in his home state.
2020 Democratic primary debates:
Then-California Sen. Kamala Harris was a strong contender in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in July 2019, having maintained a strong fourth place within striking distance of the two contenders ahead of her, per the RealClearPolitics polling average. Harris’s position in the Democratic primary took a permanent hit after a debate at the end of the month.
Harris had come off a strong performance in an exchange with former Vice President Joe Biden in a debate in June, where she called out Biden on busing policy in the 1970s. In the July 31 debate, however, Harris would be the one caught flat-footed in an exchange with then-Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI).
Gabbard called out Harris’s alleged hypocrisy about marijuana while serving as California Attorney General, and she further called out Harris’s record as chief prosecutor in the Golden State.
“Sen. Harris said she’s proud of her record as a prosecutor and that she’ll be a prosecutor president, but I’m deeply concerned about this record,” Gabbard said.
“She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana. She blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row until the courts forced her to do so. She kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of California, and she fought to keep cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way.”
Harris defended her record, but Gabbard responded by saying that there was “no excuse” for how she conducted herself as California Attorney General.
“When you were in a position to make a difference and an impact in these people’s lives, you did not, and worse yet, in the case of those who are on death row, innocent people, you actually blocked evidence from being revealed that would have freed them until you were forced to do so. There’s no excuse for that, and the people who suffered under your reign as prosecutor, you owe them an apology,” Gabbard said
While Harris dismissed the criticism from Gabbard, the critique had a lasting impact in the eyes of Democratic voters, and Harris fell in the polls. Harris would drop out before the Iowa Caucuses but would later be selected as Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s running mate for the 2020 ticket. She was elected Vice President in November 2020, after she and Biden defeated the Republican ticket of then-President Donald Trump and then-Vice President Mike Pence.
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The first Republican debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is scheduled for Aug. 23 and will be televised by Fox News Channel. The Democratic Party will not be hosting debates, as incumbent President Joe Biden is seeking reelection.
Republican candidates, from Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have confirmed they will attend the Republican debate, but former President Donald Trump has not confirmed if he will or will not attend.
