This fall’s campaigns aren’t attracting nearly the passion and emotion of a presidential contest still more than a year off. But they’re important as signals of how 2024 voters might lean next year in the likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Fall 2023 contests will test out themes on the economy, abortion, and a range of other issues. They may also influence the 2024 presidential candidate field. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) has demurred from a 2024 primary bid, a good showing in his state’s legislative elections on Tuesday, Nov. 7, would thrust him back into the national spotlight as a potential late-entrant rival to Trump for the GOP nomination.
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Here are key races to watch this fall.
Kentucky governor
Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is running for a second term and he has a decent chance of winning — even in a state that in 2020 backed Trump over Biden 62% to 36%. Beshear’s current lead in the polls is a reflection of his effort to portray his term as one of technocratic, get-it-done politics.
Beshear is a standard-issue Democrat, from taxes and spending to abortion and gay marriage. But he never voluntarily engages on such issues, focusing on Kentucky matters. Beshear’s only national television appearances seem to come after a tornado, flooding, or when other natural disasters hit Kentucky, and he’s talking up the need for federal aid.
The incumbent’s last name doesn’t hurt, either. His father, Steve Beshear, was Kentucky governor from 2007-15 and left office a popular figure. This year, Andy Beshear’s Republican opponent is Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a protege of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Abortion is proving a stark divide between the candidates. Their faceoff comes a year after Kentucky voters rejected a ballot measure aimed at banning most abortions.
If Beshear wins, Democrats will look to his messaging on the issue as a template for the national electorate, in the wake of the 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs decision making abortion a matter for states to decide.
Virginia legislative elections
To the east in Virginia, abortion is also likely to be a major motivator for voters on both sides of the issue. Youngkin, a wealthy former private equity executive who in 2021 won the Virginia governorship on his first bid for public office, is pushing hard to turn state government in the commonwealth fully red.
In the House of Delegates, where all seats are up this year, Republicans hold 50 seats to the Democrats’ 46, with four vacancies. Across the state Capitol in Richmond, Democrats hold a 22-18 majority. Half of that chamber is up for election in November.
Youngkin has said under a unified GOP state government in Virginia, he would seek to implement a 15-week abortion ban. And while that’s excited many on the Right, it’s also motivated Democrats in legislative races. Due to much higher campaign donation limits than for the presidency and Congress, elections for a handful of competitive state seats that will decide control of both chambers could be multimillion-dollar affairs.
Ohio abortion ballot measure, Part 2
Ohio voters will decide whether the right to an abortion should be added to the state constitution. The referendum will mark the second time in three months Buckeye State voters consider the issue. In August they rejected a proposal, pushed by state elections, which would have raised the threshold to pass a ballot measure from a simple majority to 60%.
The upcoming measure would establish “a fundamental right to reproductive freedom” with “reasonable limits.” In addition to Kentucky, similar measures have passed over the past 13 months, with varying language and emphasis, in California, Kansas, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont.
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Honorable mentions
Neighboring Southern states have gubernatorial elections, but Republicans are favored in each. Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) isn’t particularly popular, polls show. But Mississippi’s strong Republican tilt makes him a favorite over the Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission and a second cousin of the late rock icon Elvis Presley.
In Louisiana, state Attorney General Jeff Landry is favored to win the open seat governorship. Landry would succeed Gov. Jon Bel Edwards (D-LA). Landry, a staunch conservative, was a House member for a single term, from 2011-13, and was elected state attorney general in 2015.
