The fallout from the surprise Hamas militant attack against Israel on Saturday didn’t just reignite long-held tensions in the Middle East; it could also heighten continuing problems on Capitol Hill and in the GOP presidential primary.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Hamas, for the first time since 1973, and responded to the attacks with airstrikes on the Gaza Strip. In total more than 1,800 people, including at least 14 American citizens, have died between the escalating conflicts.
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Since the violence erupted over the weekend 2024 Republican presidential candidates have rushed to condemn Hamas and its allies, including Iran, excoriate President Joe Biden‘s foreign policy efforts, and reiterate their commitment to Israel’s sovereignty.
Yet whether the conflict and war in the Middle East will have much impact on determining the next GOP standard-bearer remains to be seen roughly one year before voters head to the polls to choose the nation’s next president. However, Republican candidates aren’t leaving the matter to chance, stepping up to make their views abundantly clear on the matter.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been one of the most adamant candidates to declare American support for Israel. The presidential hopeful called for the U.S. to provide Israel with “all arms and intelligence it needs to defend itself.”
“The fanatic Hamas terrorist group must be destroyed,” Haley said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “But Hamas is only a small symptom of a larger disease. Iran, Russia, and China are in league together, attacking Americans, American allies, and American values. This is a battle between the civilized world and barbarians. America must stand up for our citizens, our values, and our friends.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) announced sanctions on Iran he will propose to state lawmakers in the wake of the terrorist attacks. “Our proposed legislation will of course reinforce Florida’s commitment that we don’t do business with state sponsors of terrorism just as Iran,” he said.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) delivered a speech at the Hudson Institute on Tuesday in which he called for tough action on Hamas. “These despicable acts deserve nothing less than the full measure of justice,” Scott said. “So people behind them need to feel the wrath of God and they need to meet some Israeli or American military hardware to help them get there soon.”
James Gelvin, professor of modern Middle East history at UCLA, said Israel “looms large” in American politics compared to other international issues, especially among Republicans and evangelicals. “I assume that Republican candidates are going to be all over themselves to try to differentiate themselves by how muscular their policy is going to be,” Gelvin said. “Why don’t we supply Israel? No, why don’t we bomb Gaza? No, why don’t we nuke Gaza? No, why don’t we nuke Iran? It will be a bidding war as to who’s going to be able to convince the Republican base that they’re the most muscular.”
Gelvin also claimed that some of former President Donald Trump‘s foreign policy decisions were affected by the special American-Israel alliance. “Even Donald Trump with his Make America Great Again and his America First policies had a very, very special place for Israel and for its neighbors,” he continued. “Hence the Abraham Accords, which I’m sure Donald Trump under any other circumstances would not have proposed except it was involving Israel.”
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 by the Trump administration, normalized ties between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain to the consternation of Palestinian leaders. Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017 and moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018, further infuriating Palestinian leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas.
Trump, the front-runner in the GOP race, took to social media to boast about his relationship with Israel while in office. “I KEPT ISRAEL SAFE! NOBODY ELSE WILL, NOBODY ELSE CAN, AND I KNOW ALL OF THE PLAYERS!!!” said Trump on Truth Social.
On Saturday, the same day as the first surprise attacks, Trump denounced Hamas and subtly attacked Biden. “The brutal murder of citizens is an act of savagery that must and will be crushed. Has to be,” he said during an Iowa campaign rally. “It has to be dealt with very powerfully. This is a time where the United States needs leadership. We don’t have leadership. But Israel is at war and the United States obviously is going to stick with Israel.”
BREAKING: President Trump publicly addresses Hamas’ attack against Israel, labels it an “act of savagery” and calls for US to “stick with Israel, and strongly” pic.twitter.com/eqLIkaEVqY
— RSBN 🇺🇸 (@RSBNetwork) October 7, 2023
Experts said the conflict will likely have little impact on determining the GOP primary race or the presidential election. “I think that our news cycle now is so quick that if this is a short-term war, then I think by the election cycle, we’ll be on to something else I can’t even name right now. If this was a long-term war, and that’s a very different dynamic,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and chief executive officer of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “But I just think it’s a real unknown what happens in 2024.”
Chamberlain said the bigger concern is that there hasn’t been a House speaker since Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) ouster last week. “I think it’s more important than ever we have the speaker so the House of Representatives can move forward and pass the legislation,” she said. “My argument is this needs to get fixed because we do have world crises like the war in Israel. … I know that President Biden can do a little bit, but pretty much our hands are tied until we get a speaker of the House.”
Currently, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) are in the race to replace McCarthy, though neither has enough support to reach 217 votes. Whoever emerges from the race will likely deal with calls to link aid to Israel with Ukraine funding in its war with Russia, a hard pill for some House Republicans to swallow.
But the GOP primary race will likely remain the same, despite the Middle East conflict, with Trump dominating the race and DeSantis, Haley, Scott, and others battling for second place.
“It won’t matter in the Republican primary, as far as I can see,” Gelvin said about the war between Israel and Hamas. “Basically, foreign affairs are going to take a very, very low priority among Republicans. This is just another stick with which to beat Biden. But when push comes to shove, this is going to be very much in the background by the 2024 elections.”
Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, stated that the conflict does open up some discussions about the isolationist wing of the GOP and America’s Iran policy. “But if you consider that some of the candidates who are running are actually probably running for vice president, we’re going to be able to see their attack dog qualifications as they go after the Democrats for a very naive Iran policy,” he said.
Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence, DeSantis, and other 2024 hopefuls have blasted Biden’s prisoner swap deal with Iran in which five imprisoned Americans were released in exchange for the release of several jailed Iranians and Tehran gaining access to $6 billion frozen assets. Pence called the exchange “the largest ransom payment in American history” when the deal was first announced in August.
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However, Rubin also clarified that the Israel-Hamas war will bring up harder questions for candidates such as Vivek Ramaswamy, who has pushed back against funding Ukraine. “Now what Republicans are going to have to address is if it’s okay to defend Taiwan, and if it’s OK to defend Israel, why is it not OK to defend Ukraine?” he said. “I could see that debate breaking out among the Republicans, and then we might actually see some space between them.”
Whatever happens in the GOP primary, it is a dangerous time in the Middle East. “Its potential, given the type of operation, for there to be found literally thousands of casualties in Gaza,” Rubin said. “How is the Democratic Party going to react then? Is Joe Biden, who spoke with moral clarity today, going to shift into moral equivalence? And then at the same time, that’s the question for the Republican candidates: Is it going to be moral clarity or moral equivalence?”
