Former President Donald Trump has shot ahead of President Joe Biden in the battleground state of Pennsylvania by almost 10 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election.
In an Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters, Trump leads his opponent with 45% to Biden’s 36%. Eleven percent of respondents opted for “someone else,” while 8% were undecided.
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Biden, despite calling Delaware home, often recalls his Pennsylvania roots. The 80-year-old was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, before moving with his family roughly 10 years later.
Pennsylvania was one of the five states that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, along with Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
It has also been a frequent stop for Biden in both official and campaign capacities. His frequent trips to the state, however, don’t appear to be boosting his electoral posture.
Trump has spent relatively little time on the campaign trail compared to his Republican opponents and the time he has devoted to his 2024 bid has been focused on the Midwest.
Other recent surveys of the battleground state’s electorate have shown Trump and Biden in a relative dead heat, often within the margin of error. The Emerson poll is a break from this, showing Trump with a significant lead.
The survey was conducted between Oct. 1 and 4 and doesn’t reflect attitudes about the recent terror attacks in Israel and Biden’s response.
Despite Biden’s loss to Trump in the poll, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) still leads his Republican challenger David McCormick by eight points. He received 41% to McCormick’s 33%.
According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, “Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%.
“An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: These voters break for Trump 53% to 27%,” he added.
The non-college educated share for Trump in the Pennsylvania poll is a marked increase over his support with the group in national measures, which was 49% to Biden’s 36%. His growth in support among those without a college degree is significant, particularly as the United Auto Workers strike continues in the Midwest and labor unions come into focus ahead of 2024.
Both Biden and Trump have been courting workers throughout Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan who are striking against the “Big Three” automakers, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. The president recently made history by joining workers on the picket line, while Trump made a rare trip to Michigan, skipping the second Republican debate, in order to speak to current and former UAW members.
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Pennsylvania is similarly home to a significant number of union workers, and manufacturing makes up a sizable part of its economy. Per the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development, “Manufacturing has an economic impact of more than $113.2 billion and accounts for nearly 10% of all jobs in Pennsylvania with over 564,700 residents employed in the industry.”
And while Biden has made reaching out to manufacturing workers a focal point of his reelection bid, Trump has found success communicating with members of the working class.
