The 2023 elections may not have the fireworks of 2024, but there is still plenty up for grabs. In this “off-year,” most of which takes place on Nov. 7, Virginia will be keenly watched, particularly by followers of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and whether he can springboard Republican success into national aspirations. Meanwhile, the governor’s mansion is up for grabs in Kentucky and Mississippi. New Jersey’s Republicans believe they have a real shot at turning the state red in legislative elections, while there are also fierce mayoral and district attorney battles throughout the United States. Voters will also decide several fascinating referendums, particularly in Ohio, Maine, and Texas. This Washington Examiner series, November to Remember, will dive into all of these and more over the following two weeks. Part Two will deal with abortion in Virginia.
As control of Virginia’s legislature hangs in the balance on Nov. 7, abortion has emerged as one of the most prominent issues in the election as the commonwealth remains the last state in the South without restrictions while Republicans coalesce around a 15-week protection.
The election will determine how Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) will be able to govern going into his final two years in office, as Republicans currently hold a slim 48-46 majority in the House of Delegates, with six vacancies, and Democrats control the Senate by a narrow 22-17 majority, with one vacancy.
NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER: VIRGINIA ELECTIONS COULD LAUNCH YOUNGKIN NATIONAL RUN
Abortion has proved a divisive topic since the overturning of Roe v. Wade last summer and has even split Republicans on how to address the issue. In 2022, many Republicans avoided talking about abortion, a decision SBA Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser called the “head in the sand” strategy that resulted in mediocre gains for the party and Democrats owning the issue.
“In Virginia, we made the determination we are not going to repeat 2022,” Youngkin senior adviser Dave Rexrode told the Washington Examiner. “We have told Virginians where we stand, corrected the record when Democrats lie, and we’ve exposed their extreme no limits abortion position.”
As Youngkin tries to lead Republicans to victory, he has flipped this strategy on its head, garnering candidate support around his 15-week “consensus.”
“Governor Youngkin wants to bring Virginians together around a bill that protects life at 15 weeks, when a baby can feel pain, with exceptions after that for rape, incest, and the life of the mother,” Rexrode said. “Virginia Democrats have no vision or agenda for the Commonwealth in this election, which is why they fear-monger on abortion. It’s desperate.”
Republicans attempted to pass a 15-week restriction earlier this year, which died in the Senate. Virginia currently allows abortion to 26 weeks and six days — nearly seven months. The second-most permissive state in the South is neighbor North Carolina, which restricts abortion after 12 weeks and six days.
Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC made the first ad buy of the cycle a $1.4 million spot focusing on abortion, saying Democratic messaging on a “ban” is “disinformation” and “politics at its worst.”
“There is no ban,” the ad states, noting that 69% of Virginians agree with the Republican position, citing a University of Mary Washington poll. It noted that Virginia Democrats support zero limits on abortion, asking voters, “reasonable limits or no limits at all?”
J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told the Washington Examiner that if Republicans are successful, their strategy will likely be used nationwide in 2024, and Virginia will be seen as a bellwether. However, he also noted he has little doubt Biden will carry the Old Dominion next year.
Coleman called abortion “certainly one of, if not the most salient issue in this campaign.”
“It’s been something that the Democrats have really played up,” said Coleman, noting that in some form or another, pretty much every Democratic campaign mailer across the state includes messaging on abortion.
The issue also defined primary elections for Democrats, where a pro-abortion stance became the litmus test for candidacy, Coleman explained.
Earlier this year, Democratic state Sen. Joe Morrissey lost his primary in the summer due almost entirely to his willingness to work with Republicans on abortion restrictions. Despite his political career being defined by scandal and controversy, including admitting to a sexual relationship with a minor and being reelected to the state House from jail, abortion was the issue that drove Democrats to oust him. Morrissey received an eleventh-hour pardon from former Gov. Ralph Northam (D-VA) just days before leaving office in 2022.
Democrats are staking a lot on the abortion issue, on which they have already found success. Earlier this year, they flipped a Senate seat in a special election to fill the seat left by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), messaging heavily on abortion.
“They want to continue to downplay and dismiss women’s rights and abortion rights, like women don’t have a voice,” Democratic state Sen. Aaron Rouse, who won Kiggans’s old seat, said. “Women have been very loud and clear in the state of Virginia: Don’t touch my rights, my freedom, when it comes to making a really tough healthcare decision.”
House Democrats have also run a series of ads on abortion highlighting the South’s move to restrict the procedure, stating, “it’s happening all around us” and “MAGA Republicans in Richmond want Virginia to be next.” The ad also says Republicans want a “total abortion ban, no exceptions” and states Republicans want to send women and doctors to jail for obtaining or providing abortions.
In addition, abortion giant Planned Parenthood has thrown at least $3.5 million into Virginia to message on abortion and support pro-abortion candidates.
“Virginians should have the freedom to decide if and when they have children without the government and politicians interfering,” Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia Executive Director Jamie Lockhart told the Washington Examiner. “We know that Virginians overwhelmingly support protecting abortion access and we are focused on supporting our endorsed candidates who will stop an abortion ban.”
According to a University of Mary Washington poll, 53% of Virginians say the overturn of Roe will be a “major factor” in how they vote this year. However, the same poll indicates that legislative races are in a dead heat, with 40% of respondents preferring Democratic control of the General Assembly and 37% preferring Republican, with a 3% margin of error. Party preference is tied at 42% among likely voters.
In addition, 23% said abortion should be legal in all cases and 34% said it should be legal in most cases, compared to 8% who said it should be illegal in all cases and 27% saying it should be illegal in most cases.
Coleman compared the abortion issue to the education issue, noting Youngkin’s and Republicans’ unexpected success on parental rights in 2021.
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“Education, like abortion, is one of those issues that public opinion often breaks towards Democrats or voters tend to usually trust Democrats more on that issue. That wasn’t the case in 2021 because [Youngkin] sort of owned that issue,” he said, but described abortion as a “thornier issue than education.” He also said that, since the overturn of Roe, Democrats have been “overperforming” across the country.
Coleman also said that while he thinks Democrats have a slight advantage in retaining the Senate, the House is a “true toss-up.”
