An intensifying dispute in the South China Sea could have significant repercussions for China’s attempt to seize territory from the Philippines and even ignite a military standoff between the communist regime and the United States.
“We’re at the point where [China’s] next step here is use of deadly force or to back off,” American Enterprise Institute nonresident fellow Mike Mazza told the Washington Examiner. “And backing off is possible — it’s not like China has never backed off of anything before — but that’s not really Xi Jinping’s style. It just seems like eventually somebody’s going to get hurt or killed.”
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The crisis is brewing around the Second Thomas Shoal, a formation in the South China Sea that China claims as its own even though it falls within the island state’s exclusive economic zone. Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels collided with a Philippine coast guard and supply boat attempting to reach a grounded ship that Philippine forces use as a military outpost in the contested area. Philippine authorities intend to maintain their claim to the outpost.
“They are considering taking more resolute steps to respond to this increased provocation and increased aggression coming from the People’s Republic of China,” Philippine National Security Council Assistant Director Jonathan Malaya told local press on Tuesday.
The United States has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and also sees a need to reject China’s attempt to lay claim to most of the South China Sea. It occurred just days after Chinese fighter jets harassed a Canadian surveillance plane participating in a United Nations mission to enforce sanctions on North Korea, which extended a pattern of Chinese maneuvers around the U.S. and allied militaries in the region.
“We understand that they have ambitions to drive the United States out of the region. They have an interest in driving wedges between the United States and our allies and partners,” Dr. Ely Ratner, who leads the Defense Department’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs bureau, said Monday at the Atlantic Council. “So, this is counter normative behavior … part and parcel of a broader effort by the PRC to refashion the Indo-Pacific region away from the kind of free and open Indo-Pacific that we’re trying to build.”
The controversy is simmering just as President Joe Biden hosts a key ally in the Pacific this week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, for a state visit. Albanese, whose country plays a key role in the U.S. strategy to mitigate threats from China, will depart from Washington on the same day that China’s top diplomat arrives in the city for meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other officials. Albanese plans to make a separate trek to Beijing next month in an apparent attempt to mitigate the acrimony between his country and the communist power.
“That effort will but up against U.S. requests and Australian interests in responding to the South China Sea developments in a way which is supportive of the United States and the Philippines,” Mazza said. “You would hope at least that … whatever joint statement they make is quite pointed and specific. If, instead, it’s vague commentary on the need for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, I think that will be a disappointment for the Biden administration.”
The weekend collisions drew a warning from Blinken’s team, which warned Beijing that “armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft, including those of its coast guard, anywhere in the South China Sea” could warrant triggering of the mutual defense treaty between the Philippines and the U.S. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s team has signaled that it won’t take that step unless China’s tactics change.
“As stated in the MDT, an armed attack on a public vessel of the Philippines will be enough to trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty,” Malaya, the Philippine NSC official, said. “However, there was no armed attack, so there would be no basis to trigger the MDT.”
That assessment, however, does not alleviate the pressure to develop a plan to manage China’s “slow-intensity conflict” with the Philippines, as another analyst put it.
“The Chinese think they’ve got this figured out. … They’re fairly confident that they know how to keep this below the threshold of outright conflict.” United States Institute of Peace distinguished fellow Andrew Scobell told the Washington Examiner. “I start to get worried when people get hurt or killed. And that can happen with these kinds of things.”
The controversy has lingered for more than two decades, but Chinese strategists may envision a significant reward for taking more strident actions to prevent the resupply of the Philippine forces.
“Mother Nature has a say in how quickly this becomes a real crisis, as the grounded ship that the Philippines is using to secure its territory may break up before the end of the year,” longtime China watcher Bill Bishop wrote this week in Sinocism. “And that is what the PRC is waiting for, then they will swoop in and declare possession, unless the Philippines can get a lot of concrete and construction materials to the Sierra Madre soon.”
“The Chinese Communist Party’s dangerous, and illegal, attacks against our ally are completely unacceptable,” House China Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) said Monday. “It is time to take additional measures to support our commitments under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, including by assisting the Philippines in establishing a more secure and permanent foothold on the Second Thomas Shoal.”
That assistance perhaps should entail a U.S. escort for the Philippine supply ships, according to Mazza and another prominent analyst.
“That probably is the next step,” said Center for a New American Security senior fellow Lisa Curtis, a “key contributor” to U.S. policy in the Indo-Pacific at the White House National Security Council from 2017 to 2021. “Unless China backs away from this confrontational approach, I do think it would be appropriate for the U.S. to consider naval escorts of Philippine vessels.”
The U.S. escorted supply ships between Taiwan and its outlying islands in 1958, when the U.S. still had a defense treaty with the Republic of China government that had taken refuge on Taiwan after the CCP’s victory in the Chinese Civil War.
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“Now fast forward to today: The Chinese don’t want to get into a shooting war in the U.S., but it’s an open question about how something like that … might play out,” Scobell said. “This isn’t destined, or [it is] not inevitable that it’s going to explode.”
Mazza agreed. “I don’t think they’re looking for an actual fight at this point, but they are playing with fire, for sure,” he said.
