Virginia Republicans lost control of the House of Delegates and failed to gain control of the state Senate on Tuesday, despite a spirited campaign by Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA). But the razor-thin losses by the GOP in the Old Dominion may be a bad indicator for President Joe Biden — and former President Donald Trump.
An analysis of the results of the 2023 election in Virginia by RealClearPolitics shows that, unlike in other states where the GOP woefully underperformed, Republicans performed on par or slightly behind Youngkin’s 2021 electoral margins in several key swing districts.
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Republicans outperformed Trump in every district where the former president won less than 60% but more than 40% in 2020. Of those districts, Republicans won 13 districts where Biden was victorious in 2020 and seven where Democrats won House races in 2022.
The districts for this election were enacted in 2022 and were favorable to Democrats, meaning getting majorities in both legislative chambers was an uphill battle for the GOP. Despite the challenge, Republicans showed the 2021 election was not a fluke and that candidates, other than Trump, can still perform well in the Old Dominion.
In the end, the GOP picked up one seat in the state Senate, with Democrats now only holding a 21-19 majority. In the House of Delegates, Democrats will return to Richmond with a 51-49 majority. Virginia appears to have cemented itself as a purple state, as the state will run under narrow Democratic legislative majorities along with a Republican governor.
“I think the No. 1 lesson is that Virginia is really purple and that going into these elections, we knew that they were going to be tough,” Youngkin said at a press conference on Wednesday.
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If Trump is at the top of the ticket in next year’s presidential election, Virginia will likely not be competitive as the former president lost the state by 5% in 2016 and 10% in 2020. The results of 2023 do appear to show that other Republicans can succeed in the Old Dominion and that the GOP has halted the state’s rapid Democratic shift seen in the previous decade.
Although there was a silver lining for the GOP in Virginia, Tuesday was a triumphant night for Democrats and a rough night for the GOP in several states, a year out from the pivotal 2024 presidential election. Democrats picked up major victories in several races nationwide, including in Kentucky and Ohio.
