President Joe Biden, the oldest sitting U.S. president, turned 81 on Monday.
As Biden celebrates this milestone, the implications of his advanced age will be thrust into the spotlight once again. Voters are likely to be reminded of the unprecedented nature of the 2024 presidential race, in which the likely two major party nominees’ combined age is 158.
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If Biden is reelected, he would be 86 by the end of his second term. And if former President Donald Trump again becomes the Republican nominee, which he is favored to do, the 77-year-old is sure to invite more speculation about his own ability to serve.
In the latest survey on age and mental and physical competence going into the 2024 election, 80% said Biden’s age is a problem regarding his fitness to serve another term as president, per the Yahoo News-YouGovpoll. Of those who indicated this, 55% said it is a “big problem.”
Additionally, 60% said Biden isn’t fit to serve a second term, 54% don’t think he is competent enough, and 64% said they are “very” or “somewhat concerned” about his health and mental ability.
These numbers appear damning for the president. However, in the same poll’s matchup between Trump and Biden in a general election, Biden loses to his opponent by only 2 points.
While there is a much larger concern over Biden’s age and ability, Trump’s age is also a factor. Just three years younger than the president, Trump was the third oldest sitting president, holding office from 70 to 74. He would be 78 during a potential 2025 inauguration and 82 by the time his second term is over.
Nearly half of respondents, 49%, also said Trump wasn’t fit to serve an additional term. Further, surveyed U.S. adults were split on whether Trump possesses the competence to be president again. More said he does not, at 45%. However, 43% said he does. Forty-four percent also signaled their concern over his health and mental acuity.
Such dwindling confidence in the age and abilities of both men isn’t new. Recent polls in the fall and summer have indicated a similar concern and similar margins between worries over Biden and Trump.
Per the Yahoo News-YouGov survey, the majority of people reported hearing about Biden’s verbal gaffes, the president “falling asleep at public events,” and his stumbling during events in the news. More than half also said these are important to consider when voting.
However, they reported hearing about Trump’s verbal gaffes, as well as his several criminal trials in the news too. And these were considered similarly important when voting.
While Biden’s age is a bigger concern to voters in most polls, Trump’s numerous legal problems, coupled with worries about his age and acuity, seem to put the men back on equal footing. Asked which was a “bigger problem” related to presidential fitness, 42% said Trump’s criminal cases, while 41% said Biden’s age.
Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki pressed this argument when she said recently, “Donald Trump would prosecute anyone he deems an enemy, unleash troops on protesters, and essentially unravel the rule of law as we know it. … But sure, Joe Biden is three years older and occasionally trips.”
If Trump doesn’t become the nominee, Biden’s age could have a much larger influence on voters, however. This has caused some in the Democratic Party to sound the alarm.
According to David Axelrod, previously senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, polls aren’t all that important a year away from the election. But he said there is one data point he looks at, which he says “had to do with age.”
“That is one thing you can’t reverse no matter how effective Joe Biden is behind the scenes. In front of the camera, what he’s projecting is causing people concerns, and that is worrisome,” he said.
Despite Biden’s ability to keep the most admired rising stars in the Democratic Party at bay, he hasn’t been able to stop all challenges to his reelection bid. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) had voiced concerns about Biden’s second bid for the presidency on several occasions before announcing his challenge to the president.
While urging better-known, more accomplished Democrats to take Biden on over the summer, Phillips simultaneously called on the president to “pass the torch.”
“I do believe the majority wants to move on,” he said in August.
The issue of age, ability, and the relative unpopularity it has fed into for both Biden and Trump could also trigger a third-party campaign from the No Labels Party, which has been reportedly courting Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Manchin notably announced last week he wouldn’t be seeking reelection to the Senate and kept his 2024 plans vague.
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In the spring, No Labels said such a campaign isn’t definite but “an insurance policy in the event both major parties nominate presidential candidates that the vast majority of Americans don’t want.”
The potential Biden-Trump rematch has already invited challenges from independent candidates Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
